2024 Qipco British Champion Stakes: Soft Ground Analysis

From the opening Long Distance Cup to the concluding Balmoral Handicap, each of the six British Champions Day fixtures is crammed with intrigue. However, all meetings have their headline act, and, in the case of British Champions Day, that event is the £1.3m firecracker that is the Qipco British Champion Stakes. 

Twelve go to post in 2024, headed by one of the stars of the season to date in the shape of the William Haggas colt, Economics. Having mastered Auguste Rodin at Leopardstown, can he complete the Champion Stakes Double? If he is to do so, he must cope with the softest ground he has encountered to date. With that in mind, we look at the previous soft ground efforts of the 2024 field.

Anmaat – 33/1 with bet365

Trainer: Owen Burrows

Sire: Awtaad

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 125

Now six years old, Anmaat has encountered soft ground on only three occasions. The first of those outings went well, with the Awtaad gelding toughing it out to land the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp in 2022, and he also performed with credit when finding only Adayar too good in the 2023 Gordon Richards Stakes. However, his most recent effort on soft was disappointing – sent off as the 6/5F in the 2024 Prix Dollar, he faded into fifth close home. As a previous Group 1 winner, he can’t be dismissed entirely but has work to do with the principles.

Continuous – 66/1 with bet365

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Sire: Heart’s Cry

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 1130

One of the strongest stayers in the field, Continuous stormed to a 2¾l success on soft ground in the 2023 St. Leger to back up a 1m success on very soft ground over 1m in his juvenile campaign. More recently, he disappointed when making the running in the Prix Foy, but it is safe to ignore his no-show in the Arc, as he was badly hampered by the ill-fated Haya Zark. He’s at his best over further but landed a Group 3 over this trip in August, and conditions may bring his stamina into play.

Iresine – 14/1 with BetVictor

Trainer: Jean-Pierre Gauvin

Sire: Manduro

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 11111111

If conditions were the only factor to consider, this French raider would be hard to leave out of calculations. Iresine simply loves it when the mud is flying, with that perfect record encompassing Group 1 successes over 1m2½f and 1m7½f. At seven years of age, he will become the oldest winner since Bendigo in 1887 but has conditions firmly in his favour.  

Royal Rhyme– 50/1 with BetVictor

Trainer: Karl Burke

Sire: Lope De Vega

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 11151

Royal Rhyme is amongst the rank outsiders but isn’t too far behind Iresine when it comes to consistency in testing conditions. However, he has yet to score at higher than Group 3 level, with that fifth-placed effort coming in the 2023 edition of this race. That suggests he may not be quite up to this level, but he was only 3l adrift of Economics on good ground in the Irish Champion Stakes last time.

Nashwa – 66/1 with bet365

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Sire: Frankel

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 236

One of only three fillies or mares in the field, history suggests that Nashwa is unlikely to be seen to best effect in these conditions. As a three-time Group 1 winner, her class is not in doubt, but the pick of her efforts on soft saw her finish second in the 2023 edition of the Nassau Stakes. Having raced only twice in 2024, she arrives fresher than most but could do with the ground drying out.

Novus – 100/1 with BetVictor

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore

Sire: Dandy Man

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 1111241

If the betting is to be believed, Novus is way out of her depth in this field, but she can at least be counted upon to handle the going. All five career wins have come on soft or worse ground - most recently when claiming the Listed Foundation Stakes over this trip in September. She’s yet to race in Group 1 company, but with conditions in her favour, it’s easy to understand why connections are rolling the dice.

Calandagan – 13/8 with BetVictor

Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard

Sire: Gleneagles

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 3211

The rain in the area has resulted in a surge of money for this French raider, to the extent that he is now vying for favouritism with Economics. Having bolted up in the King Edward II Stakes on good to firm, Calandagan certainly doesn’t need it soft but copes with such conditions well. A Group 3 winner on very soft and heavy ground, his two defeats came when in need of the run on his seasonal debut.

Economics – 6/4 with BetVictor

Trainer: William Haggas

Sire: Night Of Thunder

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 4

Those looking to take the favourite on may point to the record of Economics in the mud. A fourth-placed result in Class 4 company admittedly doesn’t read well, but that effort came on his sole outing in 2023. He’s clearly a much-improved performer this season, but that ground issue remains a question mark until he shows he can handle it. The stats of his sire offer encouragement. Night Of Thunder boasts a 16% overall strike rate, which is in line with his 16% strike rate on heavy ground and 17% on soft, whilst his dam La Pomme D’Amour won twice on soft during her career in France.

King’s Gambit – 20/1 with bet365

Trainer: Harry Charlton

Sire: Saxon Warrior

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 2

Another difficult-to-assess contender: King’s Gambit’s only previous soft ground outing saw him finish second in a Class 2 Novice event last season. The bigger question is whether he is up to Group 1 company, having failed to score in three outings at Group 3 and Group 2 level this term – albeit finishing in the first three each time. Sire Saxon Warrior boasts a 7% strike rate on heavy and 9% on soft, which falls below his overall rate of 12%.

Los Angeles – 7/1 with bet365

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Sire: Camelot

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 13

Los Angeles has 1¼l to find with Economics from their clash in the Irish Champion Stakes but may find the ground coming in his favour. A Group 1 winner over this trip on very soft during his juvenile campaign, his only other effort in similar conditions came last time out when he finished an excellent third in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. 

Persica – 66/1 with bet365

Trainer: Richard Hannon

Sire: New Bay

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 13

Second bottom of the field on official ratings, this three-year-old has a mountain to climb on all known form. Yet to score at above Listed level, his most recent effort over this trip on soft saw him finish a 3¾l third in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes. Having scored at Ayr last time out, he arrives in decent heart but needs to take his form to a new level.

See The Fire – 66/1 with BetVictor

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Sire: Sea The Stars

Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going: 234

This likeable filly possesses plenty of talent but may not be seen to best effect on the ground. Zero from three on soft, the pick of those efforts came when a 7½l fourth to City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse. She’s yet to win over this trip but closed all the way to the line to go down by just a neck in the 2024 Nassau Stakes. That effort offers a glimmer of hope but others are far more convincing. 

Paul Harrison

Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.