- Fate of the Favourite
- Leading Trainers
- 21-70 Day Break Ideal
- Rating of Winner
- Staying the Trip
- Class Considerations
- Unexposed in Handicaps
- On A Favourable Mark
- Age of Winner
- Finishing Position Last Time Out
- The Final Five
- Betting Recommendations: Mullins the Man Yet Again?
- Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Irish Grand National:
Hot on the heels of the English and Scottish Grand Nationals, Ireland takes its turn in the staying chase spotlight. Taking place at the County Meath track of Fairyhouse in its traditional Easter Monday slot, the BoyleSports Irish Grand National is the big betting highlight of the holiday weekend.
First run in 1870, this 3m5f contest offers €500,000 in prize money and features several legendary names on the roll of honour, including Arkle and Desert Orchid. In more recent years, the prize has fallen to Aintree Grand National heroes Numbersixvalverde and I Am Maximus.
With the clock ticking down towards the 2025 edition, 78 horses remain in contention. That’s a lot of runners to get through, but perhaps the trends may help narrow the field. Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024, highlight the standout stats and trends, and pick out our best betting options for 2025.
Fate of the Favourite
Considering the competitive, big-field nature of the event, the favourite has a solid recent record in this contest. Three of the ten editions in our sample were won by the market leader, handing favourite backers a profit of £11.50 to £1 level stakes. Five of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the remaining five priced at 16/1 or higher. Freewheelin Dylan caused the biggest shock when scoring at a huge 150/1 in 2021.
Leading Trainers
Two trainers from opposite ends of the scale top the recent trainer's table. It’s no surprise to see the name of Willie Mullins, but Dermot McLoughlin may be unfamiliar to many punters. Based nearby at Bodeen, McLoughlin followed up the shock 2021 success of Freewheelin Dylan with 40/1 winner Lord Lariat in 2022. With Sandra Hughes filling in for Gordon Elliott for the success of Thunder And Roses in 2015, Elliott also effectively has two wins.
Lord Lariat is McLoughlin’s sole entry in 2025. Mullins, in contrast, had no fewer than 22 entries at the time of writing, headed by High Class Hero. Thomas Gibney is represented by Kinturk Kalanise and Intense Raffles - but this may come a little soon after Aintree for the latter. Johnnywho goes for Jonjo & A J O’Neill, whilst Better Days Ahead is included in an eleven-strong Gordon Elliott entry.
21-70 Day Break Ideal
We will turn to the days since the previous run as our first step to narrow the field. With nine of our ten winners arriving on the back of a break of 22-68 days, we will rule out all runners falling outside of this bracket, which includes those who lined up in the English of Scottish Grand Nationals.
Applying this trend reduces the field from 78 to a slightly more manageable 50.
Rating of Winner
With a maximum field of 30, a fair chunk of the current entries will fail to make the cut. Predicting the ratings cut-off point in advance is never an exact science. Instead, we will focus on the ratings of the runners who came home in front in our sample. The average quality of the winner remained fairly steady over this period, with all ten winners falling into the 136-153 bracket.
Ruling out any runner with an official rating of 135 or less brings us down to 26.
Staying the Trip
Given the relative scarcity of 3m5f+ events on the racing calendar, we wouldn’t expect many winners to have previously won over such a distance. None in our sample had, but ten had at least shown some degree of staying power to win over 3m+.
A solid stat, but not much help in reducing the field. Just one runner fell at this hurdle, leaving 25.
Class Considerations
As a Grade 3 event, the Irish Grand National is just about as classy as it gets in the handicap sphere. Recent results suggest that those with experience at this level or higher are at an advantage, with eight of ten having lined up at Grade 3 level or above.
Applying this trend to the remaining runners removes only one, leaving 24.
Unexposed in Handicaps
Whilst there were exceptions, most notably Rogue Angel (2016) and Freewheelin Dylan (2021), most winners in our sample were either completely or relatively unexposed in handicap chases. No fewer than six winners landed this on their first handicap chase start, with seven of 10 having six or fewer previous handicap chase outings.
Focussing on those with six or fewer handicap chase starts in 2025 reduces the field to 17 – still some work to do.
On A Favourable Mark
Intense Raffles (2024) and Burrows Saint (2019) landed the prize off a new career-high mark. However, the eight other winners were either at or below their previous career-high rating
Focussing on those at or below their previous career high in 2025 trims the remaining contenders to 10.
Age of Winner
The Irish Grand National is open to runners aged five and older. However, none so young have come home in front in the modern era. With all ten winners in our sample falling into the 6-9 age bracket, this seems a sensible trend to turn to next.
Just two fall at this stage, which still leaves us with eight.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Only two winners in our sample had also scored on their previous appearance. However, most had posted a reasonable effort last time, with five finishing in the top four and eight in the top six.
Focussing on those who arrive on the back of a top-six finish brings us down to five.
The Final Five
It took a few trends to get there but we finally have a manageable shortlist of five. With nowhere left to go from a trends perspective, let’s look at the five runners who have made it this far.
Monbeg Park, 40/1 with Betfred - Sean Thomas Doyle-trained eight-year-old who won nicely at Leopardstown in March. However, he was way below those levels off this revised mark last time out at Limerick.
High Class Hero, 10/1 with BoyleSports - This Willie Mullins runner was well fancied for last weekend’s Scottish Grand National but heads here instead. Smart hurdles form included a close second to Dancing City in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. Disappointingly beaten at odds of 2/13 at Thurles in March but looks the sort who may improve for this step up in trip.
Bioluminescence, 20/1 with Betfred - Lightly raced seven-year-old mare from the Gavin Cromwell operation. Scored in Grade 3 company over hurdles and opened her chase campaign with a Grade 2 success at Limerick. Subsequently ran a cracker behind Dancing City at Naas, but below those levels at this track in February.
Harry Des Ongrais, 40/1 with Betfred - Handicap chase debutante from the yard of Henry De Bromhead. Won nicely over 2m4f at Gowran Park in February and likely faced an impossible task conceding weight to Fun Fun Fun last time out at Limerick. Won over 3m in his Point-to-Point days but has looked a doubtful stayer in two 3m efforts under rules
Sa Majeste, 20/1 with BoyleSports - Another Mullins runner who arrived from France with a tall reputation in 2023. Has threatened to deliver on that potential, but only sporadically. That said, he has been consistent since switching to fences – hitting the frame in four of five chase outings. Backed up a win at this track in February with a solid third in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and may enjoy this step up in trip
Betting Recommendations: Mullins the Man Yet Again?
Of the remaining five, we have concerns regarding Harry Des Ongrais and Monbeg Park in the stamina department. The strapping mare Bioluminescence is harder to rule out but is just passed over in favour of the Mullins duo.
Mullins appears to have expertly shuffled his National pack so far and may earn his rewards for rerouting High Class Hero from last weekend’s Scottish Grand National. A strong fit on the trends, this classy hurdle performer can defy a mark of 148 on his first crack at a handicap chase.
Having recorded a 1-2-3 at Aintree and a 1-2 at Ayr, we wouldn’t put it past the Closutton maestro doing something similar here. If there is another to be involved in the finish, we like the chances of Sa Majeste, who showed an admirable attitude when scoring at this track earlier in the year.
Recommended Bet - High Class Hero each way @ 10/1 with BoyleSports
Recommended Bet - Sa Majeste each way @ 20/1 with BoyleSports
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Irish Grand National:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
