No sooner do the runners cross the line in one Grand National than another comes roaring over the horizon. Hot on the heels of another memorable edition of the Aintree showpiece, this weekend sees the action move north to Ayr for the 2025 edition of the Scottish Grand National.
First run in that wonderful footballing year of 1966 (at least for England fans), this 4m marathon asks the field to tackle 27 fences, which, whilst a far cry from those on display at Aintree, still place a firm emphasis on jumping ability.
Always a huge betting heat, the 2025 edition looks to have a little extra riding on it as the battle for the British Trainers title goes down to the wire. Successful with Macdermott in 2024, Willie Mullins is responsible for no fewer than eleven of the remaining 33 entries, whilst current championship leader, Dan Skelton, may send three into battle.
Will Mullins or Skelton collect first-place prize money, or will the trophy head elsewhere? In an effort to answer that question, we have looked at the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024 and picked out a selection of stats and trends to, hopefully, identify the 2025 winner.
Fate of the Favourite
It was honours even between favourite backers and the bookmakers over the ten races in our sample. With three outright, joint, or co-market leaders coming home in front, a £1 level stakes punt on the jolly returned exactly £10 – neither a profit nor a loss. Four winners returned a single-figure SP, two a price of 10/1-20/1, with the remaining four at 25/1+. Al Co provided the biggest shock when coming home in front at 40/1 in 2014.
Stamina Crucial
Given the marathon 4m trip, it is no surprise that previous winners had already confirmed their ability to come home in front in a stamina-sapping event. When looking at the ten winners in our sample, all ten had previously won over 2m7½f or further.
Applying this trend to the 2025 edition gets us off to a reasonable start in trimming the list of runners down to 22.
Ideal Rating Band
Rated 146 when winning the race in 2016 and 2017, Vicente was the highest-rated winner in our sample. The Paul Nicholls star was quickly followed by the lowest-rated winners, Joe Farrell (2018) and Takingrisks (2019). With all ten winners rated between these extremes, we will use this 11lb band to narrow the field.
Having applied this filter, only nine runners remain.
Experience in Classy Company a Plus
As a Premier Handicap contest, the Scottish Grand National is equivalent to the Grade 3 contests of seasons gone. Seven of the ten winners in our sample had previously lined up in Grade 3 company or higher, whilst nine of ten had competed at Listed level or above.
A solid stat, but not one which helps us at this stage, with all nine remaining runners meeting this criterion. We move on.
Relatively Unexposed in Handicap Chases
Next up, is one of the most popular handicap angles. Whilst not as vulnerable to unexposed sorts as other handicaps on the calendar, the Scottish Grand National still shows a bias towards those with relatively few handicap chase outings. With eight of ten winners having nine or fewer handicap chase outings, we will use this as our next filter.
Applying this trend reduces the field to six.
Highest Grade of Previous Win
With six a couple too many for a short list, we will return to the Graded angle – this time looking at the highest grade our winners had previously won in. We have to use a little imagination in equating the form of those who had won in Ireland - but rating valuable Irish Handicaps as the equivalent of Class 2 is probably conservative. As such, nine of our ten winners had scored at the equivalent of Class 2 level or above.
And Then There Were Three
The class of the previous race win brings us down to a shortlist of three. With the remaining trends failing to make any inroads, it is time to take a closer look at our final three contenders:
Henry’s Friend, 16/1 with Betway - Disappointed in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but, having been pulled up in the 2024 National Hunt Chase, it may be that Cheltenham isn’t his track. Before that, he caught the eye when staying on late for fifth in the Coral Gold Cup over 3m2f and backed that up with an easy win in the Mandarin Handicap Chase
Macdermott, 11/1 with Betfred - This Willie Mullins runner has shown nothing in 2024/25, with four starts yielding two pulled-up efforts, an unseat, and a 91-length defeat. However, he arrives as the defending champion and is only 5lb higher this time.
Apple Away, 12/1 with Betway - Classy sort, who claimed the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in 2023 and has since scored in Listed company over fences. Pulled up in the Midlands National last time but has won at this track and is now 4lb below her career-high chase rating
If anyone can bring a horse back to form when he needs to, Willie Mullins is the man. As one of only a few in the field with a proven ability to stay this far, Macdermott is our number-one pick in 2025.
Of the others, Henry’s Friend has had fewer cracks over staying distances than Apple Away and looks like a better value option at the prices.
Recommended Bet - Macdermott each way @ 11/1 with Betfred
Recommended Bet - Henry’s Friend each way @ 16/1 with Betway
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Scottish Grand National:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
