- Fate of the Favourite
- Unexposed in Handicap Sphere
- 6-7-Year-Olds Hold Sway
- Experienced In This Grade or Higher
- Stamina Considerations
- Experience in Graded Company
- Solid Recent Effort an Advantage
- Recommended Bet: Reponet Has the Right Profile
- Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap:
All eyes turn to Aintree on Saturday afternoon for the biggest betting race of the year on British shores. Much as the fences are larger than those seen elsewhere, the Grand National towers above all other events in terms of betting turnover.
The 2025 edition of the big one promises to be as thrilling as ever, with strong challengers from both sides of the Irish Sea. However, the Grand National is only one of seven contests on offer on the closing day of the Randox Grand National Festival, and there is plenty of excitement elsewhere on the card.
Here, we look at the opening event on the card, which sees a competitive field of staying handicappers battle over 3m½f of the hurdles course.
With twenty runners remaining in contention, this £75,000 presents a fascinating puzzle. Here, we examine the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020) and pick out the key stats and trends to present a picture of a typical winner before revealing the best trends-based bet for the 2025 edition.
Fate of the Favourite
Three of the ten winners in our sample were claimed by the market leader. That 30% strike rate is solid for a race of this type and handed favourite backers a profit of £10.50 to £1 level stakes. Seven of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the biggest shock coming courtesy of 16/1 shot Ubak in 2016.
Unexposed in Handicap Sphere
The unexposed angle is always popular in handicap events. After all, the fewer handicap outings a runner has, the more likely they are to have something up their sleeve from the assessor. This may be an angle worth pursuing in this contest. When looking at the results in our sample, nine of the past ten winners had appeared three or fewer times in a handicap hurdle contest.
Applying this trend in 2025 immediately brings the field down to eight, with the well-fancied Catch Him Derry and Act Of Authority amongst those to bite the dust.
6-7-Year-Olds Hold Sway
Whilst open to runners aged four and older, no winner in our sample was younger than six, with Aux Ptits Soins (2019) being the oldest winner at nine. With eight of the ten winners aged six or seven, it seems sensible to focus on this bracket in 2025.
Ruling out those who fall outside our preferred age window reduces the field to five.
Experienced In This Grade or Higher
Our second eight out of ten trend arrives when looking at the highest grade the winners had previously competed at. The current Premier Handicap status equates to the Grade 3 of yesteryear. Eight of the ten winners had previously competed in a race of equivalent standing or above.
Only Timmy Tuesday falls down at this stage as the list moves down to four.
Stamina Considerations
As a 3m½f event, it inevitably requires some degree of stamina to come home in front. Whilst only three winners in our sample had won over, or just short of, 3m, eight of ten had scored over at least 2m4f.
Bo Zenith is the only remaining runner to fall short at this stage.
Experience in Graded Company
The 21-30 day window stands out like a sore thumb on the above graph and accounts for those runners who arrive via the Cheltenham Festival, of which there were four.
This stat finally sees off Bill Joyce, who last appeared 70 days before this race.
Solid Recent Effort an Advantage
With 20 runners set to go to post, this contest pays out each way on the first four places. Recent results suggest that we should favour those who achieved a top 4 finish last time, with seven of ten winners falling into that category.
And this is the final trend we need as Shanagh Bob stumbles to leave only one.
Recommended Bet: Reponet Has the Right Profile
The one remaining contender is the Nicky Henderson-trained Jeriko Du Reponet. Formerly campaigned over 2m, he finished third on his first crack at a staying trip before finding only stablemate Doddiethegreat too good in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March. Only giving best deep inside the final furlong that day, this easier track can see him go one better.
Recommended Bet- Jeriko Du Reponet to win @ 11/2 with BetFred
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
