The 2025 Craven Meeting kicks off with a cracking seven-race card featuring three contests rated at Listed level or above. The pick of the bunch sees a field of promising fillies tackle 7f of the Rowley Mile in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.
First run in 1961, this Group 3 affair offers £85,000 in prize money and regularly attracts a field with Classic aspirations. Many Nell Gwyn contenders go on to contest the English, Irish, or French 1000 Guineas, with Cachet the most recent to complete the Nell Gwyn/English 1000 double in 2022.
Whether a Classic winner lurks among the ten runners in this year's field remains to be seen. However, we look to have a cracking edition in store, with Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, John & Thady Gosden, and Andrew Balding all represented.
Picking winners can be tricky in the three-year-old events at this time of year, given the lack of recent form for most of the contenders. In an effort to shed a little light on the Nell Gwyn Stakes, we look at the ten results between 2014 and 2024 and highlight a selection of stats and trends which may help identify the most likely contenders.
Fate of the Favourite
Whilst there have been shocks in this event, the market leader has a solid overall record in recent years. Four of the ten editions in our sample were won by the favourite, handing those who backed the market leader a profit of £3.96 to £1 level stakes. Seven winners returned a single-figure SP, with the remaining three between 12/1 and 18/1.
Leading Trainers
The Nell Gwyn Stakes trophy was shared among seven trainers in our sample, with Richard Hannon, Richard Fahey, and the John Gosden operation grabbing two wins apiece. Hannon and Fahey are without an entry in 2025, but John & Thady Gosden send Zanzoun into battle.
Of the other trainers on our list, William Haggas sends out Nardra, Roger Varia is represented by Qarlyga, and Charlie Appleby saddles current favourite, Verse Of Love.
Top Jockeys
Frankie Dettori was the dominant force amongst the riders in our sample. Unfortunately, that doesn’t help much in 2025, as the Italian is currently displaying his evergreen skills on the other side of the Atlantic.
The only other rider with more than one win, William Buick, takes the ride on Verse Of Love. None of the other jockeys on our list have a ride in the 2025 edition.
Bred for Success
Not the strongest race for pedigree fans, with the ten editions falling to nine different sires. In the absence of Galileo, it is no surprise to see his perennial rival, Dubawi, topping the pile as the only stallion with more than one win. Zanzoun will represent Dubawi in 2025.
Of the other stallions on our list, Havana Grey is set to be represented by the Simon & Ed Crisford runner Arabian Dusk.
First Time is the Charm
A previous run can be an advantage in some early-season races. However, that doesn’t appear to be the case in this event, with all ten winners scoring on their seasonal return. That stat counts against Qarlyga and Saguaro Blossom in 2025.
Top Four Finish A Plus
Whilst every winner in our sample arrived following a break of 158 days or more, most had posted a positive display on their final start at two; four of ten won, and eight of ten finished in the first four. The only two runners to fall down on this stat are, once again, Qarlyga and Saguaro Blossom.
Going the Distance
Two winners claimed this event having only previously scored over sprint distances. However, most had already shown their ability to stay this far or further. When looking at the 2025 field, Verse Of Love, Celestial Orbit, Cartwheel, Remaat, Zanzoun, Biniorella Bay, and Qarlyga all earn a tick in the distance box.
Other Stats
Five of 10 winners had already earned a rating of 107+
Five of 10 had previously won at Newmarket
Only two of 10 had won at Group 3 level or above
Four of 10 had run in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot as a juvenile
Betting Recommendations: Celestial to Star at Double Figure Price
At the end of our analysis, two runners share the top spot as the best fit on trends. Earning points in the trainer, jockey, break, finishing position, and distance categories, it is easy to understand Verse Of Love’s position at the head of the market (6/4 with BoyleSports). This represents a step in class from her sole start at two, which came in a Class 2 Maiden contest. However, she made quite an impression in that 5L romp and earns a bonus point as the race came over this course and distance. On the downside, that didn’t look to be the strongest of maidens. Since that event, those who finished behind her have compiled a combined record of zero wins from 13 starts.
Earning points for her trainer, sire, distance, finishing position, and break, Zanzoun is the second filly to rack up five trend points. Going in the famous Juddmonte silks, this one hit the frame in all three starts at two but only broke her duck when switched to the all-weather on her final outing. With that coming at Class 5 level, she needs to step up considerably but is more appealingly priced at 11/1 with Betfred.
No runner hit four of our key trends. Of those with three points, Arabian Dusk makes the most appeal and picks up a little extra credit as the only filly to have earned a rating of 107+. Successful over 6f at this track in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, she boasts leading form claims if handling the additional furlong.
So far, we remain unconvinced by the runners discussed. Verse Of Love is short enough considering the weakness of the race she won, Zanzoun is zero from two on turf, and Arabian Dusk makes little appeal at the prices with the trip question to answer. Of that trio, Zanzoun is the only runner to remain tempting, given her double-figure odds. However, we favour another.
In a race with many imponderables, our vote goes to Celestial Orbit, who earns points for distance, break, and finishing position. Unlucky on debut on the Kempton all-weather, she is two from two over this trip on turf, including in a Listed contest at Sandown. The form of that event has worked out reasonably well, with the runner-up Anshoda subsequently beating Duty First in the Group 3 Prestige Fillies’ Stakes. Duty First, meanwhile claimed the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes on her seasonal return in 2025. In a tricky contest, Celestial Orbit looks the value each-way call.
Recommended Bet - Celestial Orbit each way @ 10/1 with Betfred
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Nell Gwyn Stakes:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
