The staying chasers may take top billing at the Scottish Grand National Festival, but there are plenty of quality contests amongst the supporting action. The pick of the bunch is this 2m hurdle event, which tends to attract a field of the most talented handicap hurdlers in training.
One of only very few Grade 2 handicap hurdles on the racing program, this £100,000 contest heads the undercard on Scottish Grand National Day. Eighteen remain in contention for the 2025 edition, including seven from the yard of Willie Mullins, as the Irish juggernaut targets a second British Champion Trainer’s title. Many will expect Mullins to prevail but with challengers from the yards of Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson, and Paul Nicholls amongst the opposition, he may not have things all his own way.
As always, this looks like a cracking betting heat ahead of the main event, but who will come out on top? Here, we look at the ten editions between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020) and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help identify the most likely winner.
Fate of the Favourite
Given the generally competitive nature of this contest, the market leader has a solid recent record in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Three of the ten editions in our sample fell to the favourite, handing supporters of the market leader a profit of £3.50 to £1 level stakes. Six of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, and three were between 10/1 and 12/1. Midnight Legend caused the biggest shock when coming home in front at 25/1 in 2018.
High-Level Experience an Advantage
As a Grade 2 Limited Handicap, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is broadly on par with Grade 3 (Premier) Handicaps and Listed level events. All 10 winners in our sample had previously appeared at a comparable level or in a higher grade.
That's a solid stat to begin with, but it's not particularly helpful, as only one of the 18 runners fails to hit this criterion.
Unexposed in Handicap Hurdles
With half of the ten winners in our sample having lined up in Grade 1 company, it isn’t too surprising that most winners had relatively few outings in “lowly” handicaps. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that all ten winners had six or fewer handicap hurdle starts.
Five fall down at this stage to reduce our list to a round dozen.
Relatively Recent Run an Advantage
Ch’tibello claimed the 2016 edition for Dan Skelton following a 142-day break. However, he was the outlier in our sample, with the nine other winners arriving on the back of a break of 56 days or less.
Just two drop out at this stage, leaving ten in the field.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
In addition to the previous outing being relatively recent, most winners had performed fairly well on their latest outing. Considering winners arrived via competitive events such as the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, County Hurdle, Champion Hurdle, and Mares’s Hurdle, a top-six result can be considered a solid display.
Ruling out those who finished outside the top six last time out brings us down to six.
The Shortlist
We are yet to mention two other nine out of ten stats for this race. Namely, nine of ten winners had previously scored over the trip, and nine of ten were 5-7 years of age. Unfortunately, all six remaining runners hit both trends. With a lack of strong trends elsewhere, it is time to take a closer look at the remaining six runners.
Kargese, 11/4 with Betway - County Hurdle heroine who bids to defy an 8lb higher mark. Tough mare, but having carried no more than 11st3lb to victory in the past, top weight of 11st12lb poses a slight question. Drying ground may also be against her.
Absurde, 6/1 with Betfred - 6lb better off with Kargese for a 3l defeat in the County Hurdle. Has won on good, but peak career effort came when landing a heavy ground edition of the County Hurdle in 2024.
Ethical Diamond, 5/1 with Betway - 7lbs better off with Kargese for a 3¾l defeat in the County Hurdle. His only hurdle win came on heavy ground.
Joyeuse, 8/1 with Betfred - Failed to stay the 2m4f of the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle but had previously claimed the William Hill Hurdle over this trip by a resounding eight lengths. That came on soft ground but has posted fair efforts on good and good to soft.
Lot of Joy, 33/1 with Betfred - Returned with a Listed win in a mares event at Punchestown but well below that level in two outings since. 2m4f trip may have been to blame and boasts form figures of 2181 in 2m hurdle events.
Casa No Mento, 33/1 with Betfred - Listed Class winner at Punchestown in May who has mixed hurdles and fences this term. Emphatic winner of a Class 3 chase at Bangor last time but previously 8l behind Kargese at Ascot. However, 14lb better off with the market leader here.
Betting Recommendations
No doubt Kargese is the class act in this field and the one to beat if coping with the additional weight. However, that is enough of a question to look elsewhere at the prices. Absurde and Ethical Diamond bring similar claims, with a narrow preference for the former. However, with Betfred offering each-way terms on the first four, we prefer to take a chance on two mares in the line-up.
If we draw a line through her effort over 2m4f in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham, Joyeuse offers rock-solid value on her performance in the William Hurdle. Lot Of Joy and Casa No Mento are more speculative, but the latter isn’t too far out of this on a line of form through Kargese, stays well at this trip, and should enjoy a strong pace to aim at.
Recommended Bet - Joyeuse each way @ 8/1 with Betfred
Recommended Bet- Casa No Mento each way @ 33/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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