Moving into April, the 2025 flat season is beginning to find its stride. Excitingly, all five Classics, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, and more lie ahead in what promises to be another thrilling year on the level.
Much like the National Hunt season, the flat campaign is peppered with multi-day meetings. Whereas the best action is crammed into spring over jumps, quality flat fixtures are spread more evenly – providing a steady drip of excellence for fans of the sport.
Next week sees the first of such events at the headquarters of the sport, as Newmarket hosts the three-day Craven Meeting. Kicking off on Tuesday 15th and concluding on Thursday 17th, this early Easter treat features a host of competitive handicap and Group class contests.
The feature event comes on Day 2 in the shape of the historic Craven Stakes. Now over 250 years old, this Group 3 1m event regularly attracts a field with designs on the major Group 1 prizes to come. But what does it take to come home in front? Here, we look at the 2014-2024 editions of the race and highlight the stats and trends which paint a picture of a typical Craven winner. Finally, we pick out our best bet for the 2025 edition.
Fate of the Favourite
Coming so soon in the season, this can be a tricky puzzle to evaluate. As such, punters have done a reasonable job of identifying the most likely winner. Three of the ten editions in our sample were landed by the market leader – a solid strike rate, but only good for a loss of £3 to £1 level stakes. Nine of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the only exception being Kool Kompany, who scored at 14/1 in 2015.
Stamina Considerations
10/10 and 9/10 trends are thin on the ground in this contest. However, we did uncover two 8/10 stats which may be worth considering. The first of which concerns the longest distance the winner had previously scored over. Given the fact that the two year old programme isn’t littered with 1m events, it is notable that two winners had scored over the distance, whilst eight of ten had won over at least 7f.
Unfortunately, all 15 remaining contenders hit this trend. Perhaps our second stat will prove more productive…
100+ Rating
2014 champ Toormore and 2022 hero Native Trail topped the ratings with a mark of 122. At the other end of the scale, Eminent (2017) was rated only 87, whilst Skardu (2019) had yet to earn a rating at all. Overall, eight of ten winners had already ran to a level of 105 or higher.
Ruling out those runners rated below 105 reduces the field to nine.
Tried at the Highest Level
As a Group 3 contest, you expect runners who had previously lined up in Group 1 company may have decent chance. The stats support this theory, with seven of the ten winners having Group 1 experience.
Applying this trend to the remaining runners trims our list to seven.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Three runners did improve from a disappointing effort to claim the Craven. However, the majority of winners had either won, or gone close to winning, on their previous outing.
Focussing on those who finished in the top two last time out brings us down to one.
Other Stats
William Buick was the leading jockey over this period with three wins
Charlie Appleby and Richard Hannon tied for the lead amongst trainers, with three wins apiece
The ten winners in our sample were sired by ten different stallions
Betting Recommendations: Appleby Runner Qud be Good Enough
At the end of our trends analysis, the last horse standing is the Charlie Appleby-trained Al Qudra. Not too many bookmakers have priced this race up at the time of writing, but those who have suggest that this No Nay Never colt is only fourth best of the Godolphin runners in the field.
The unbeaten Opera Ballo tops the market for the boys in blue an brings an attractive unbeaten profile to the table but has yet to race above Class 3 level. He falls into the could be anything category, but faces a marked rise in class. Anno Domini came up short in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy on his final start at two but may fare better on the likely quicker ground here. Aomori City is harder to fault having finished a fine second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last term and would be just about the pick on the form book.
Of the non-Godolphin runners Wimbledon Hawkeye looks dangerous. However, at a likely double figure price, we wouldn’t put anyone off an each way punt on the trends selection, Al Qudrah. Of the Appleby runners, he is the only horse who arrives via an overseas outing – just as Master Of The Seas and Masar prior to claiming the 2021 and 2018 editions of this. With form figures of 12821 in events over 7f+, including an unlucky in running second in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine, he has plenty in his favour.
Recommended Bet - Al Qudra each way
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Craven Stakes:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
