St. Leger Stakes – Betting Preview

Many of the stories of the flat season have been written as we head into September each year - but not all. We still have several highlights to come, including the international titans of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the Breeders’ Cup Festival, and the Melbourne Cup.

On the domestic scene, Ascot will, as ever, provide a fitting farewell to the flat stars on Champions Day, but before all that, we have the small matter of the final Classic of the season, as Doncaster sets the stage for the latest edition of the St. Leger Stakes.

The Guineas meeting at Newmarket and Epsom’s Derby fixture may generate more hype, but Doncaster was the first to the Classic Stage. First run in 1776, the St. Leger is the oldest Classic contest held anywhere in the world. At 1m6f, it is also the longest Classic on the British racing calendar. 

Whilst the Guineas demand speed, the Derby and Oaks, class, balance, and a degree of stamina - staying power is the number one prerequisite for success on Town Moor.

With the final field beginning to take shape, we look at the likely challengers and pick out our best bets for the historic contest on Saturday, 14th of September.

The Ballydoyle Battalion

With seven St. Leger wins, Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the modern era but still some way behind all-time leader John Scott, who lifted the prize a remarkable 16 times between 1827 and 1862.

Given his record, the O’Brien yard is the most obvious place to start when assessing the 2024 edition - particularly as he is responsible for nine of the remaining 15 entries.

• Chief Little Rock – 50/1 with BetVictor: This Galileo colt is yet to race beyond 1m4f, win beyond 1m2f, or compete in a Group 1 event. He blew up in the King Edward VII Stakes and looks an unlikely runner - unless deployed as a pacemaker.
  
  
• Euphoric – 100/1 with BetVictor: Yet to score outside of Maiden company. Beaten 17l in the Derby, 14l in the Irish Derby, and last of five in the Great Voltigeur last time. Up against it on all known form.
  
  
• Grosvenor Square – 6/1 with bet365: Group 3 winning juvenile, who failed to fire over 1m4f in the Chester Vase and Irish Derby. However, he has stepped up markedly in two starts over this trip – only run-down close home by Tower Of London in the Curragh Cup and winning the St. Leger Trial by a resounding 20 lengths.
  
  
• Illinois – 7/4 with BetVictor: Smart juvenile, whose peak effort came when third behind Los Angeles in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Slow to come to the boil this term but stayed on well to claim the Queen’s Vase over this trip at Royal Ascot and followed that up when second in the 1m4f events of the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris and Group 2 Great Voltigeur. Back up in trip, he boasts solid claims.
  
  
• Jan Brueghel – 3/1 with bet365: The only unbeaten colt in the field, this son of Galileo arrives following wins in a Maiden and the Group 3 duo of the Dubai International Stakes and Gordon Stakes. Yet to race beyond 1m4f but boasts an admirable attitude and is open to improvement.
  
  
• Los Angeles - 3/1 with bet365: Third in the Epsom Derby and the winner of the Irish equivalent, this son of Camelot is the proven class act in the field. 2-0 up in head-to-head clashes with Illinois (1m2f and 1m4f) but yet to tackle this trip. Leading form claims, but more likely to run in the Irish Champion Stakes.
  
  
• Port Fairy – 66/1 with bet365: The only filly in the field needs to improve to take a hand. Having gone down narrowly in the Cheshire Oaks, she stepped up to claim the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot, with subsequent Irish Oaks winner You Got To Me in behind. However, she was well below those levels in the Irish Oaks (beaten 17 lengths) and Yorkshire Oaks (beaten 16 lengths) and has questions to answer over this new trip.
  
  
• The Equator – 33/1 with bet365: Consistent sort, but yet to suggest he is up to this level. Ran well when 6½l behind Illinois in the Queen’s Vase and when going down by just 1¼l over this trip in the Melrose Handicap at York. He has fewer stamina questions than a few but probably has place claims at best.
  
  
• The Euphrates – 50/1 with BetVictor: Son of Frankel with a similar profile to The Equator, i.e. solid, but a notch below the required standard. Peak effort came when holding off the reopposing Kinesiology in the Listed Marble City Stakes, but he couldn’t back that up in Group 3 company next time, and more is required here.

The Rest

• Align The Stars – 40/1 with bet365: Rapidly improved handicap from the Charlie Johnston operation, who began the season rated 79 but shot up to 102 ahead of the Lonsdale Cup. Blown away on that first crack in Group company, which dented his progress, but perhaps unwise to write off on the back of one subpar performance.
• Ancient Wisdom – 7/1 with BetVictor: This talented sort rounded off his juvenile campaign with a win in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at this track. Slammed by Economics in the Dante and failed to fire in the Derby but bounced back with an easy win in the 1m5f Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket. Ground dependent so may need at least some rain in the build-up to the race but has the class to be involved.
• Deira Mile – 20/1 with bet365: Zero from four in his juvenile campaign, but not beaten far behind Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity Trophy and improved over the winter. His best effort came when running on well for fourth in the Epsom Derby, but it was disappointing to see him beaten in Listed company at Windsor last time. However, he should enjoy the additional distance here and is not ruled out.
• Kinesiology – 50/1 with BetVictor: Ultra consistent sort, who has finished in the top two in his last five outings. First passed the post on his first shot at this trip last time at Leopardstown but was demoted to second following a steward’s enquiry. He needs a big career best to win, but he stays well and is in excellent hands.
• Sunway – 7/1 with bet365: Top class juvenile who landed the Group 1 Criterium International. Yet to win in 2024, but not far below that level when a fast finishing second to Los Angeles in the Irish Derby. Not quite so good when fourth in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes but had Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg in behind. Solid, but needs to find more on his 2024 form.
• Wild Waves – 66/1 with bet365: Amongst the rank outsiders but the only course and distance winner in the field, having landed a Class 2 handicap at the track in June. His subsequent no-show at Haydock is easily forgiven as he slipped on the home turn, and he ran well when fourth in the Melrose Handicap next time – finishing best of all having found trouble in running. Has alternative handicap options, but connections may roll the dice in the big one.

The Verdict

Of the O’Brien runners, Chief Little Rock, Euphoric, and Port Fairy appear to have a mountain to climb; The Equator and The Euphrates need to improve, and Los Angeles is an unlikely runner – leaving a likely shortlist of Illinois, Grosvenor Square and Jan Brueghel. 

Overall, we suspect the winner will come from that trio, and it’s hard to disagree with the market in rating Illinois the most likely to prevail. Already a winner at this distance, he looked like mastering the classy Los Angeles in a few strides over 1m4f in the Great Voltigeur and will appreciate this step back up in trip. Just about the pick of the bunch on pedigree (by Galileo and a half-brother to the Arc-winning Danedream), he can come out on top in what may be a gruelling finish.

Of those at bigger prices, Deira Mile makes some appeal, but at a really big price, we can’t resist a small each-way punt on Jessica Harrington’s Kinesiology. This one has done very little wrong in his career, looks all about stamina, and should be well suited by a strongly run race at the distance.

Recommended Bet: Illinois to win @ 7/4 with BetVictor

Recommended Bet: Kinesiology each way @ 50/1 with BetVictor

Paul Harrison

Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.