Several highlights remain in the 2024 flat campaign – both domestically and on the international stage. Irish Champions Day, the St. Leger Stakes, and Champions Day at Ascot are all still to come in Britain and Ireland, whilst looking further afield, we have the Breeders’ Cup Meeting at Del Mar in the US and the Melbourne Cup down under.
All are fine meetings in their own right, but from a class perspective, the pick of the bunch comes in France on the first Sunday in October as Longchamp stages the 2024 edition of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Offering over £4m in total prize money, the jewel in the French racing crown is the premier 1m4f event on the planet, bar none. Acting as a beacon to the most talented turf stars, “The Arc” boasts a sensational roll of honour, including Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Montjeu, Sea The Stars, Enable…the list goes on and on.
With the pecking order in the middle-distance division now established in England, Ireland, France, Germany, and beyond, we have some idea who will line up on the famous Paris turf. Here, we look at a selection of the contenders for glory and pick out our best bets for what promises to be one of the races of the season.
The Irish Raiders
Opera Singer – 10/1 with BetFred
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Justify
Previous Group Wins: 2023 Newtownanner Stud Irish EBF Stakes (G3), 2023 Prix Marcel Boussac (G1), 2024 Nassau Stakes (G1)
City Of Troy seems unlikely to head to Longchamp – with the Breeders’ Cup Classic his long-term goal – but sire, Justify, may still be represented by this talented filly
Beaten by 10½l on debut at the Curragh last season, Opera Singer soon left that effort well behind – recording a first Group success back at that track before making Europe sit up and take notice with a scintillating display in the Prix Marcel Boussac at this meeting in October.
Suffering a setback over the winter, she has taken time to hit top stride but still finished placed in the Irish 2000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes before returning to the Winner’s Enclosure with a tough success in the Nassau Stakes. She’s yet to tackle 1m4f and didn’t look to be crying out for the additional distance in the Nassau, but fillies have a decent record in this, and the market rates her the most likely of the Irish contingent to prevail.
Al Riffa – 12/1 with bet36
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Sire: Wootton Bassett
Previous Group Wins: 2022 National Stakes (G1), 2024 Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1)
The O’Brien’s dominate the British and Irish contingent in 2024, with this Joseph O’Brien-trained contender currently the next shortest-priced of a raft of contenders from the Emerald Isle.
Following a hugely promising juvenile campaign, culminating in a Group 1 success in the National Stakes, Al Riffa failed to score during an injury-curtailed Classic season. He nevertheless ran pretty well last term, with his ¾l second to subsequent Arc hero Ace Impact in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano reading pretty well in hindsight.
Fast forward to 2024, the son of Wootton Bassett came up short in Group 1 company in France and the USA but ran a cracker to chase home City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse. That Sandown effort was followed by a five-length romp in the Grosser Preis von Berlin – a race claimed by subsequent Arc winners Marienbard, Danedream, Torquator Tasso, and Aplinista since the turn of the century.
Boasting stamina on the dam side of his pedigree and hailing from a yard which has tasted success on the international stage, he rates an intriguing contender.
Los Angeles – 16/1 with BetFred
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Camelot
Previous Group Wins: 2023 Criterium de Saint-Cloud (G1), 2024 Derby Trial Stakes (G3), 2024 Irish Derby (G1), 2024 Great Voltigeur Stakes (G2)
This son of the dual Classic winner Camelot adds to Aidan O’Brien’s strong hand in the race. Not as flashy as City Of Troy and without a jaw-dropping display such as Opera Singer’s Prix Marcel Boussac romp, Los Angeles has slowly but surely built an increasingly impressive CV.
Matching Al Riffa and Opera Singer for Group 1 wins, his only defeat came when third behind City Of Troy in the Epsom Derby. Toughing it out well in the Great Voltigeur last time, he has the St. Leger as an option, but that may do a disservice to his class. It seems more likely that he will follow in the hoofprints of his sire, who finished seventh in the 2012 edition of this.
Continuous – 25/1 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Heart’s Cry
Previous Group Wins: 2022 Prix Thomas Byron Jockey Club de Turquie (G3), 2023 Great Voltigeur (G2), 2023 St. Leger Stakes (G1), 2024 Royal Whip Stakes (G3)
Of the other Aidan O’Brien entries (he has a total of 12 at the time of writing), this son of Japanese sensation Heart’s Cry may be the most interesting.
Classic winning form is never to be dismissed, and the 2023 St. Leger hero arrives on the back of a low-key campaign - suggesting Autumn targets may be the ultimate aim. Way below form on his return from a 265-day break at Ascot, he bounced back to score over an inadequate trip in the Royal Whip last time.
As a Group 1 winner over 1m6f, stamina won’t be an issue, and connections will draw encouragement from his 2023 effort in this race. Shuffled back early and short of room in the straight, he finished well to be beaten only 3½l into fifth. If the ground is soft on the day (which it regularly is), he could emerge as a serious threat.
Best of The Home Team
Look De Vega – 3/1 with bet365
Trainer: Carlos & Yann Lerner
Sire: Lope De Vega
Previous Group Wins: 2024 Prix du Jockey Club (G1)
Of the 73 current entries in the race, only one remains unbeaten, and he goes by the name of Look De Vega. Hailing from the emerging powerhouse yard of Carlos & Yann Lerner, this good-looking bay has been flawless in three starts to date.
Kicking off with low-key wins at Fontainebleau and Longchamp, his big test came when plunged into Group 1 company in the Prix du Jockey Club. It’s fair to say he passed that assignment with flying colours – travelling supremely well throughout before hitting the front a furlong from home and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides.
On what he has done at the track, it’s impossible to fault his form, but he will be stepping up to this trip for the first time and has raced exclusively on Very Soft or worse going.
(Image by: cylerner)
Sosie – 8/1 with LiveScoreBet
Trainer: Andre Fabre
Sire: Sea The Stars
Previous Group Wins: 2024 Grand Prix de Paris (G1)
Whilst the Lerners will bid to land the Arc for the first time, Andre Fabre has been there and got the t-shirt on no fewer than eight occasions. That effort makes him the most successful trainer in the history of the great race, and he boasts strong claims once again with this son of the 2009 winner Sea The Stars.
Raced only twice during a quiet juvenile campaign, this grand stamp of a horse emerged as an improved performer, having grown into his frame over the winter. Kicking off with a win at this track in April, he was then tapped for toe close home in the Prix du Jockey Club but stuck on well for third, suggesting a step up in trip may be the order of the day.
That impression proved correct next time out as he powered on relentlessly to claim the 1m4f Prix Du Jockey Club in July. In expert hands and potentially still improving, he rates a danger to all.
Delius – 16/1 with bet365
Trainer: Jean-Claude Rouget
Sire: Frankel
Previous Group Wins: 2024 Prix du Lys Longines (G3)
Having scored with Sottsass in 2020 and Ace Impact 12 months ago, Jean-Claude Rouget is well acquainted with what it takes to succeed in this event. Leading the charge for the Pau-based handler in 2024 is this son of the greatest racehorse of all time.
Only making his debut in April 2024, Delius headed into the Grand Prix de Paris with a perfect three-from-three record. He lost that unbeaten record behind Sosie but didn’t help his chance by blowing the start and did well in the circumstances to go down by only 2¼l, having stayed on strongly up the straight.
He needs to improve on that, but comments from his trainer such as, “he’s a very, very good one, and we are blessed to have him” suggest that the best is yet to come.
Japan and Germany
Shin Emperor – 20/1 with bet365
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Sire: Siyouni
Previous Group Wins: 2023 Kyoto Nissai Stakes (G3)
Despite their best efforts and numerous successes elsewhere on the global stage, Japanese trainers have yet to claim Arc gold. At present, the entries contain four runners from the Land of the Rising Sun, headed by this son of French star Siyouni.
With only a Japanese Grade 3 win to his name, Shin Emperor doesn’t boast the form in the book of some of these but caught the eye when an unlucky-in-running third in the Tokyo Yushun last time. However, it is his pedigree which makes him stand out. By Siyouni and out of Starlet’s Sister, he’s a full brother to the 2020 Arc winner, Sottsass.
Regaleira – 66/1 with bet365
Trainer: Tetsuya Kimura
Sire: Suave Richard
Previous Group Wins: 2023 Hopeful Stakes (G1)
Do Deuce is also set to travel from Japan but beat only one home in the 2023 edition. At twice his price and three times the price of Shin Emperor, the three-year-old filly Regaleira looks much more interesting.
Unlike Shin Emperor, this daughter of Japanese star Suave Richard already has a top-level success, having beaten none other than Shin Emperor in the 2023 Hopeful Stakes.
She finished two places behind Shin Emperor last time in the Tokyo Yushun but emerged as the horse to take out of the race to our eyes. Shuffled back early, she faced an impossible task when switching wide in the straight but finished to great effect to hit the line with plenty left in the tank. The switch to a slower surface poses a question, but her sire won on yielding ground, which offers some encouragement.
Fantastic Moon – 33/1 with bet365
Trainer: Frau S Steinberg
Sire: Sea The Moon
Previous Group Wins: 2022 Preis des Winterfavoriten (G3), 2023 Derby-Trial (G3), 2023 Deutsches Derby (G1), 2023 Prix Niel (G2), 2024 Grosser Preis der Badischen Wirtschaft (G2), 2024 Grosser Preis von Baden (G1)
Germany has three Arc wins to their name, the most recent of which came when Torquator Tasso caused a huge shock in 2021. Prolific Group class winner Fantastic Moon carries the hopes of a nation in 2024.
Only twice outside the first three in 13 career starts, this son of Sea The Moon scores top marks for consistency and arrives in top form, having quickened up smartly to claim the Grosser Preis von Baden last time. Having landed the 2023 Prix Niel, he also boasts a win at the track on his CV. Plenty of positives, but he faded into sixth in the 2023 edition of this, suggesting a fiercely run 1m4f on slow ground may stretch his stamina.
The Verdict
If there is a horse who may blow the field away, it is most likely to be the impressive Look De Vega. However, odds of 3/1 make limited appeal about a horse stepping up in trip for the first time.
It’s hard to forget just how impressive Opera Singer was at this track last season, but she also steps into the unknown regarding the distance. At 10/1, she’s more tempting than the favourite, but we prefer two a little further down the list.
Topping the bill is the Jean-Claude Rouget runner, Delius. It often pays to listen when this trainer waxes lyrical about one of his runners – particularly given his excellent recent record in this race. Whilst beaten in the Grand Prix de Paris, that effort did little to dent his reputation. Granted more luck in running, we suspect he may have the gears to get on top late.
Continuous is well worth considering each way, having run so well in the race last season, but we prefer a small investment on the filly Regaleira. Proven at Group 1 level in her homeland and a big eye-catcher last time out, she catches the eye as one who may arrive completely under the radar.
Recommended Bet: Delius each way @ 16/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet: Regaleira each way @ 66/1 with bet365
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
