The big handicap on Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival sees the Pertemps Network series conclude with this £110,000 final. First added to the Cheltenham Festival menu in 1974, this 3m event is preceded by a series of qualifying events in Britain and Ireland.
To be in with a chance of making the final 24-runner field, a horse must finish in the first four in any qualifying contest, with official ratings used to determine the final field. The race has seen a slight change in 2024, as runners who win a qualifier are now protected from elimination, provided they would not race from out of the handicap on the day.
Whilst “only” a handicap affair, the race boasts several illustrious names on the roll of honour, including multiple Grade 1 winner Delta Work (2018), Stayers Hurdle champ Sire Du Berlais (2019 & 2020), and Forgive ‘n Forget (1983), who went on to land the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1985.
The qualifying criteria make this a fairly unique handicapping puzzle. However, we will continue with the approach of studying the past ten editions to identify a selection of stats and trends which may assist in unearthing an attractive betting opportunity.
Look for Those who Sneak into the Race
In attempting to land this valuable prize, logic would suggest the aim is to qualify, without performing so well that the subsequent rise in the handicap would make life tough on the day. The change to the “win and you’re in” system for 2025 potentially throws a spanner in the works, but the recent evidence is strong enough to make this our first port of call when attempting to narrow the field.
Looking at the past ten editions, no horse who won or even finished second in a qualifier managed to land the big one. Sire Du Berlais finished sixth in his qualifier when a top-six finish was enough to make the final field, but otherwise, every winner has finished either third or fourth.
Focussing on those to finish third or fourth in their qualifier brings the field down to 10.
Less Exposed Runners Hold The Edge
A fairly uniform graph at first glance. However, the key trend here is that no winner had appeared on more than ten occasions in handicap hurdle contests. This race tends to fall to those relatively unexposed in the sphere rather than a seasoned handicap veteran.
An interesting, if not all that surprising, stat, but not one which helps us narrow the field. We move on.
Recent Run an Advantage
Given the qualifying structure, it is impossible to arrive at the Pertemps Final on the back of too long a break. Nevertheless, those kept ticking over with a relatively recent outing appear to hold the edge. Eight of our ten winners arrived following a break of between 12 and 39 days.
Applying this filter to our remaining runners brings us down to six.
Familiar with this Grade or Higher
These days, the Pertemps Final is a Premier Handicap, which replaced the old Grade 3 handicap status. As we can see, the majority of winners (8 of 10) had previously lined up in Grade 3 company or at Listed level. Focussing on such runners in 2025 brings us down to four as we edge closer to a decision.
The Final Four
It is also worth noting that seven of the past ten winners were trained in Ireland, seven of ten finished in the first four last time out, and nine were between six and eight years of age. However, with all four remaining runners meeting the finishing position and age stats, we will examine the form of our final four.
Lucky Lyreen, 20/1 with bet365 - No Cheltenham form. 2 lbs above career-high mark. Qualified for this in fairly safe style when prominently ridden throughout to finish third at Naas.
Jeriko Du Reponet, 11/2 with bet365 - Pulled up in the 2024 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 1lb below his career-high mark. Caught the eye when running on late to take third in his qualifier at Exeter.
Patter Merchant, 16/1 with bet365 - No Cheltenham form. Level with career-high mark. ½l behind Lucky Lyreen when fourth at Naas, but did well to qualify, having ploughed through the second last hurdle.
Jipcot, 33/1 with bet365 - beaten 34l when eleventh in the 2023 Triumph Hurdle. Level with career-high mark. Cruised into contention in his qualifier at Haydock, only to tire on the run-in to finish fourth.
Betting Selections: Double up with Elliott Duo
Jeriko De Reponet can be forgiven his no-show at the 2024 Festival, considering the cloud over the Nicky Henderson yard at the time. However, we haven’t seen enough to conclude that he definitely stays this far. Odds of 11/2 are too short for our liking in a race of this nature.
Instead, we will launch a two-pronged attack consisting of the Gordon Elliott duo, Lucky Lyreen and Patter Merchant. Each of these found more to ensure they maintained a qualifying position, and we suspect both may have more in the locker when the chips are down coming up the hill.
Recommended Bet- Lucky Lyreen each way @ 20/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Patter Merchant each way @ 16/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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