Following the sprint division provides one of the most compelling narratives throughout the season, with races such as the King Charles III Stakes, Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, July Cup, and Nunthorpe Stakes seeing many of the same runners locking horns, creating a gripping rivalry amongst the fastest of the fast.
One of the last such events on the domestic front comes at Haydock in early September each year, as the Merseyside venue hosts the Sprint Cup. Held over the 6f trip and offering £400,000 (2024) in total prize money, this high-class event invariably attracts a stellar field, with Green Desert, Danehill, Dayjur, Dream Ahead, and Harry Angel all featuring on the illustrious roll of honour.
Always one of the most popular betting heats of late Summer/early Autumn, the race can be a tricky contest to solve. As such, it never hurts to look at the type of performer it has taken to prevail in the past. Here, we look back at the 24 editions between 2000 and 2023 and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may assist in whittling down the field.
Age of Winner
Open to runners aged three and older, the youngest age group fared best in our sample. At the other end of the spectrum, Markab became the joint oldest winner in the history of the race when coming home in front in 2010. Overall, 18 of 24 winners (75%) were between 3 and 5 years of age.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Logic would suggest that runners arriving in good form would fare best in this competitive event, and the results support that theory. 18 of the 24 winners (75%) finished in the first three last time, whilst no winner finished outside the first seven on their most recent outing.
Previous Race of Winner
Given its favourable position in the calendar (usually 1-2 weeks before the Sprint Cup), it is no surprise that the Nunthorpe Stakes was the most popular route into the race for the winner. Of the seven winners who headed here from York, only one had also won the event on the Knavesmire. The French Group 1 of the Prix Maurice de Gheest game next – no horse managed the de Gheest/Nunthorpe double, with three winners finishing second in the Deauville event.
Highest Grade of Previous Win
Previous Group 1 winners inevitably stand out in the Sprint Cup field and accounted for eight of the 24 winners. 21 of 24 (87.50%) had scored at Listed level or above. The biggest outlier was 2014 champ G Force, who had won at no higher than Class 2 level before his big race success.
One thing to note is that, whilst only eight Sprint Cup kings had previously won in Group 1 company, all bar two had competed in one or more Group 1 events before this assignment. 2003 winner Somnus (ran at no higher than Group 3 level) and 2015 champ Twilight Son (no higher than Class 2 level) were the two exceptions.
Fate of the Favourite
Seven of the 24 editions in our sample fell to the favourite or joint-favourite, representing a 29.17% strike rate - in line with the average of around 30% across all races. Supporters of the market leader would have squeezed out a profit of £2.08 to £1 level stakes.
Overall, 13 winners returned a single-figure SP, and 10 were priced between 10/1 and 14/1. The biggest shock came courtesy of the 25/1 shot Invincible Spirit in 2002.
Other Stats
- 21 of 24 winners (87.50%) had run within the past 60 days.
- 21 of 24 (87.50%) had previously won over 6f.
- 8 of 24 (33.33%) had previously won at Haydock.
- Two-time winners Henry Candy, James Fanshawe, Kevin Ryan, and Tim Easterby were the only trainers with more than one success.
- With two wins apiece, Kevin Darley and Oisin Murphy were the only riders to come home in front on more than one occasion.
- Green Desert and Pivotal were the only stallions to sire two winners.
Best Trend Fit in 2024
Plenty of the 29 runners who remain in the race hit a few trends, but for our money, the best overall fit is the George Boughey-trained Believing. Four years of age, the son of Mehmas finished second in the Nunthorpe Stakes 15 days before this race and has won five times at Listed level or above. One of those victories came at this track, and he stayed on well to finish third at 66/1 in the 2023 edition of this race. He’s nothing like that price this year, but having strengthened up from three to four, it would be no surprise to see him go a couple of places better.
Recommended Bet: Believing each way @ 10/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
