Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase: 21st-Century Trends

Moving into the festive period, Cheltenham Racecourse does its bit to keep the spirits up with the second Gold Cup handicap in the space of a couple of months. Held under almost identical conditions to the Paddy Power Gold Cup of November, albeit on the New Course as opposed to the Old Course, this 2m4f event regularly attracts many of the same contenders. That statement is true in 2024, with five of the 14 remaining entries having lined up here in November. 

Introduced in 1963 as the Massey Ferguson Gold Cup, this 2m4f contest has undergone numerous sponsorship changes, with sparkling wine producer Nyetimber taking over ahead of the 2024 edition.

Whilst “only” a handicap affair, several Grade 1 names feature on the roll of honour, including Flyingbolt, who many rank behind only Arkle in the all-time list, two-time King George VI Chase winner Pendil, and Aintree Bowl champ Exotic Dancer.

As party season begins to sweep the nation, the December Gold Cup provides an early punting highlight ahead of the major events later in the month. Here, we look at the 21 editions of the race from the current century (no race in 2001, 2008, or 2022) and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help zero in on the winner.

Age of Winner

Open to runners aged four and older, Unioniste became the first four-year-old to come home in front when landing the 2012 edition. Four years later, the lovable Frodon repeated the feat when claiming the first of his two December Gold Cup victories. At the other end of the spectrum, the ten-year-old Coole Cody joined Tassilo and Garnishee as the oldest December Gold Cup winners in 2021. Overall, six to eight years of age appears to be the ideal window, with 85.71% of the winners in our sample falling into that bracket.

Finishing Position Last Time Out

Results from the current century suggest a solid performance on their most recent racecourse appearance is a definite plus in this event. Over half of our winners finished in the first two last time out, whilst 16 of 21 (76.19%) finished in the top four.

Highest Grade of Previous Races

Only one of the 21 winners in our sample had previously won in Grade 1 company. However, an impressive 17 of 21 (80.95%) had at least lined up in a top-tier event.

New to Handicaps?

Whilst there were exceptions – notably 2014 winner Niceonefrankie, who claimed this on his 24th Handicap Chase start – this race most often fell to a horse at least relatively unexposed in the handicap chase sphere. 18 of the 21 (85.71%) winners between 2000 and 2023 had seven or fewer previous handicap chase starts. 

Entries For 2024

Fourteen chasers remain in contention as the clock ticks down to the big race. The table below displays how many of the key trends each of the entries meets.

Whilst all 14 runners match at least one trend, only the following quartet hit all four:

• Stage Star – Cheltenham form figures of P111P5. Those wins include the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. 7lbs higher than when claiming the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup by 4l.
• Ga Law – Cheltenham form figures of 151P2. 14lb higher than when winning the 2022 Paddy Power Gold Cup by ¾l, 6lb higher than when scoring by 1¾l over this track and trip in January, and 1lb higher than when a 4½l second in the 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out.    
• Le Patron – Pulled up on only previous run at Cheltenham in the 2024 Turners Novices’ Chase. Up 7lbs for an impressive 7l win over this trip at Newbury on his seasonal return. 
• Guard Your Dreams – Cheltenham form figures of 01135043. On the same mark as when a 6½l fourth around the Old Course in October and a 4¾l third, again on the Old Course, in November.     

There’s very little to choose between our foursome when looking at their previous efforts at this track, with Le Patron being the fly in the ointment, having failed to complete on his only Prestbury Park outing. 

Stage Star possibly edges it on a strict reading of the form. Likely to step on his comeback outing at Aintree, he makes some appeal at 8/1 with bet365. 

However, at more than three times that price, the best bet at this stage is an each-way punt on the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Guard Your Dreams.

A winner of the Grade 2 International Hurdle at this track in 2021, he reached a rating of 147 over the smaller obstacles. He’s late to the chasing game at eight years of age but has shown definite promise in three starts over fences this season. Likely to have this as his big target in the first half of the campaign, he could have something up his sleeve off a mark of 136.

Recommended Bet: Guard Your Dreams each way @ 25/1 with bet365

Paul Harrison

Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.