Paddy Power Gold Cup: 21st Century Trends

(Image by: cheltenhamraces)

The headline act at the Cheltenham Festival may be the most famous Gold Cup on the Prestbury Park menu, but it is not the only one. Around four months before the finest staying chase of the season, the handicappers get the chance to go for gold in the huge betting heat of the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

First run in 1960 - and known as the Mackeson Gold Cup for the first 35 years - this 2m4f Grade 3 Handicap is one of the big highlights of the three-day November Meeting, which begins on Friday, 15th November in 2024.

Invariably presenting the type of handicap puzzle punters love to solve, we look to have a typically competitive field assembling in 2024. In an effort to zero in on the most likely contenders, we have looked back over the 24 editions from the current century and identified a selection of the most informative stats and trends.

Age of Winner

Whilst open to runners aged four and older, no horse so young has ever come home in front. The five-year-old Caid Du Berlais became the joint youngest winner of the race when coming home in front in 2014. No horse older than nine has landed the prize since 1975. Overall, 23 of the 24 winners in our sample were 6-9 years of age.

Proven at the Distance

Any event at Cheltenham presents a thorough test at the distance. That statement is particularly true of handicaps featuring a double-figure field, which tend to be run at a frenetic gallop. As we can see in the chart above, a proven ability to stay at least 2m4f is a significant positive.

Class to the Fore?

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is considered to be one of the classiest handicaps of the season. That opinion is backed up by the results from the current century: All 24 winners had previously competed at Listed level or above, whilst an impressive 19 of 24 (79.17%) had lined up in Grade 1 company earlier in their career.

New to Handicaps?

The fact that so many winners have lined up in Grade 1 company suggests that this race regularly falls to a runner rarely sighted at handicap level. That theory is again supported by the results, with 16 of 24 winners having two or fewer previous starts in a handicap chase.

Entries For 2024

Seventeen chasers remain in contention in the week leading up to the race. The table below displays how many of the key trends each of the entries meets.

As we can see, only one horse ticks all four boxes. Successful four times at Cheltenham, including a mighty display in the 2024 Ryanair Chase, Dan Skelton’s Protektorat is the proven class act of the field. There’s a lot to like about his claims at 14/1 with BetVictor.

However, carrying top weight of 12st to victory will require a monumental effort – no horse has won with 12st+ on their back since Dunkirk in 1965.

We wouldn’t entirely rule Protektorat out, but given that weight stat, it may be more sensible to focus on those who hit three of our four trends, namely:

• Ga Law – 13lb higher than when winning this race in 2022. 5lb higher than when scoring in a January Grade 3 around the New course. 
• Ginny’s Destiny – 8lb higher than when winning a Novice Handicap on the New Course here in January. 
• Janidil – Well beaten in four previous outings at Cheltenham, but all were Grade 1 affairs.
• Fugitif – 1lb higher than winning the 2023 edition of the December Gold Cup on the New Course. 
• Jetoile – 5lb lower than when fourth (beaten 17l)  in a Grade 3 around the New Course in January. 
• Il Ridoto – 6lb lower than when third (beaten 12l) in the 2023 edition of this. 
• Straw Fan Jack – 2lb higher than when third in a handicap around the New Course at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. 
• Wevallbeencaught – 3lb higher than when third in a Novice Handicap over course and distance last time out. 

Ginny’s Destiny is hard to fault, but he looks short enough at 3/1 with bet365. Our three for the each-way shortlist are Fugitif, Straw Fan Jack, and Weveallbeencaught, with a narrow preference for the last named. As a seven-year-old, he is more open to improvement than Fugitif or Straw Fan Jack and posted an eye-catching display over course and distance last time. 

Recommended Bet: Weveallbeencaught each way @ 16/1 with bet365

Paul Harrison

Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.