This Saturday, Ascot hosts one of the finest single-day fixtures of the British racing year as a cast of stars descend on Berkshire for British Champions Day. We have six races on offer, five of which are rated at Group level, including a stellar quartet of Group 1 affairs, whilst the closing Balmoral handicap provides something for handicapping fans to sink their teeth into.
Assessing the merits of the contenders at the end of a long and arduous season is never a straightforward task at a meeting no stranger to a shock result, and this year, the state of the ground provides an additional factor for punters to ponder. Currently described as heavy with the potential for more rain on the way, it seems we can hope for soft ground, at best, on Saturday afternoon.
With that in mind, we highlight those contenders who may be less inconvenienced than most if the mud is flying – starting with the big event for the stayers.
Kyprios – 8/11 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Galileo
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:16411
Unbeaten in six starts in 2024, the king of the staying division looks set to start as the red-hot favourite if tackling this event. Well clear of the opposition on form, it seems unlikely the ground will derail him. Whilst beaten on two occasions on soft or worse, those losses came over 1m2f and 1m3½. He’s a perfect two from two on soft over staying trips, including a 20l romp in the 2022 Prix du Cadran.
Sweet William – 6/1 with bet365
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Sire: Sea The Stars
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:121
Defending champion Trawlerman is yet to race on anything slower than Good to Soft, but stablemate Sweet William boasts a solid record with give underfoot. A winner over 1m6f on heavy and a soft ground Henry II Stakes, his only defeat came when second to Trueshan in the 2023 Doncaster Cup.
Illinois – 8/1 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Galileo
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:13321
Whether Illinois stays this far remains to be seen (yet to race at beyond 1m7f), but soft ground appears to be no hindrance. Never outside the first three in five efforts on soft or worse, he posted close to a career-best when landing a soft ground Prix Chaudenay last time.
Al Nayyir – 4/1 with bet365
Trainer: Tom Clover
Sire: Dubawi
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:121451
Yet to win above Listed level, this Tom Clover gelding needs to prove he is up to this class, but with all three Listed wins coming on soft ground, he may at least have conditions in his favour.
Continuous – 16/1 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Heart’s Cry
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:1130
Having stormed clear to claim the 2023 St. Leger on soft ground, Continuous goes well in testing ground. His two defeats came in his most recent outings, but there were excuses – unsuited to making the running in the Prix Foy and being badly hampered in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He’s yet to race over this far but would rate an intriguing contender.
The Euphrates – 25/1 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Frankel
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:312
Following an impressive win in the Irish Cesarewitch, this Frankel colt is one of the runners most open to improvement in the field. The above form figures all came in heavy ground events over 1m-1m2f, but that effort at the Curragh suggested staying may be his game.
Alsakib – 33/1 with bet365
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Sire: Kingman
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:31
This Andrew Balding runner has a bit to find on ratings and looked like a non-stayer in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, but he may be worth another chance, having hit the frame in two previous outings on soft.
Burdett Road – 33/1 with bet365
Trainer: James Owen
Sire: Muhaarar
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:5141
The evidence for this dual-purpose performer is less conclusive – four outings on soft ground yielding two heavy defeats and two effortless wins. However, the pick of those came last time out at Newmarket, and he may be hitting form at the right time.
Grosvenor Square – 33/1 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Galileo
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:131
Another whose profile is a little in and out, Grosvenor Square bolted up by 20l in the Irish St. Leger Trial but disappointed when fifth in the big race at Doncaster. All three soft ground efforts came during his juvenile campaign and included an easy success in a Group 3 over 1m1f.
Point Lonsdale – 50/1 with bet365
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: Australia
Form Figures on Soft or Worse Going:11114
Boasting an 80% strike rate on soft or worse, this Australia colt appears to relish some give underfoot. The big question is whether he will stay this far. Having faded in the 2m½f Lonsdale Cup but kept on well for third in the Doncaster Cup over 2m2f, the jury is out for now.
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
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