The four championship-level events quite rightly dominate the headlines at the Cheltenham 2025 Festival. Away from the deluge of Grade 1 fare, the most magical meeting of the year is also home to a selection of compelling handicap contests.
Race 3 on the opening day sees the first of the fiercely competitive handicap contests as the runners and riders go under starters for the Ultima Handicap Chase. 3m1f around the Old Course is the trip, with 20 fences standing between the field and £150,000 in total prize money.
Corach Rambler landed back-to-back editions of this in 2022 and 2023 before becoming the latest Ultima winner to go on to Grand National glory. Other stand-out names on the roll of honour include Seagram, Rough Quest, and West Tip.
Few handicaps are as tricky to unravel as those at the Cheltenham Festival. As such, it is handy to have a trend or two on your side when sifting through the bumper fields. Here, we look back at the ten editions between 2015 and 2024, highlight the most eye-catching stats, and pick out our best trends-based bets for the 2025 edition of this cracking contest.
Look for Runners Tried at a Higher Level
It often takes a horse verging on graded class to claim a handicap at the most targeted meeting of the year. Therefore, it doesn’t come as a surprise to learn that every Ultima winner in the past decade has previously lined up in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 event. Only three had managed to win in such elevated company, but the fact a horse has been deemed worth a tilt at the highest two grades in the sport looks to be a significant positive.
13 of the remaining 49 entries fall down on this trend in 2025, including the well-fancied trio of Crebilly, Myretown, and The Short Go.
No Room for Stamina Concerns
It requires impressive stamina to maintain a finishing effort up the Cheltenham Hill at the end of this 3m1f event – a statement well-advertised by the fact that several winners have gone on to Grand National success. Recent results suggest that any horse arriving with stamina doubts is unlikely to prevail. We will stick to those who have previously won over at least 3m when identifying our selection.
Ga Law, Ginny’s Destiny, Grandeur d’Ame, and Zanahiyr are amongst those to bite the dust at this stage, as our list of contenders decreases to 22.
Relatively Unexposed in the Handicap Sphere
In any handicap, those with fewer handicap outings under their belts are more likely to have something up their sleeve from the assessor. That theory appears to hold true in this contest, with only one of the ten editions in our sample falling to a handicap veteran.
Focussing on runners with nine or fewer previous handicap chase starts brings our list of contenders down to 18.
Recent Run an Advantage
Winners have trodden a variety of paths on their way to Ultima Handicap success. However, recent stats suggest that it is difficult to win this event following either an extended or too short a break. Nine of the ten winners in our sample had run within the last 60 days.
Filtering the remaining runners using this stat takes us closer to our selection in reducing the field to 13.
7-9 the Preferred Age Range
Vintage Clouds was the oldest winner in our sample, having landed the prize in his fifth Ultima appearance in 2021. At the other end of the spectrum, 2018 champ Coo Star Sivola was the youngest at six years of age. Overall, 7-9 appears ideal, with eight of ten winners falling into that bracket.
Fantastic Lady, Conflated, Favori De Champdou, and Happygolucky are the four to fall at this stage.
Festival Experience a Bonus
Given the hugely competitive fields, raucous atmosphere, inevitable strong pace, and demanding track, the Cheltenham Festival provides a unique test. Recent results suggest that those who have experienced the hustle and bustle of the meeting may be at an advantage, with eight of our ten winners having previously appeared at the Cheltenham Festival on at least one occasion.
Festival appearances came in events ranging from the speedy Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle to the gruelling National Hunt Chase, whilst four winners had appeared in a previous edition of the Ultima. Focussing on those with festival experience brings our list down to seven.
The Final Seven
Seven is still a few too many to be backing at this stage. To zero in on our final selections, we will look back at the previous Cheltenham Festival outings of the contenders.
Affordale Fury - Second in the 2023 Albert Bartlett
Gold Tweet - Eighth in 2023 Stayers’ Hurdle
Hyland - Fourteenth in 2024 Pertemps Final
Johnnywho - Eighth in 2024 Albert Bartlett
Sequestered - Ninth in 2024 Martin Pipe
The Changing Man - Eighth in 2023 Pertemps Final
Trelawne - Fell in 2023 Ultima
Betting Selections: Affordale Good Value and Johnny Can Go Close
Of our final seven contenders, Hyland appears almost certain to head straight to Aintree rather than Cheltenham; Gold Tweet holds multiple entries at the meeting, and The Changing Man may tackle the Brown Advisory instead.
Sequestered and Trelawne are harder to rule out, but the two we like best are Affordale Fury and Johnnywho. The former finished an excellent second in the 2023 Albert Bartlett and ran a cracker on his recent return from a 438-day absence at Fairyhouse. He’s the best value each-way option at the current prices, but we can’t resist adding Johnnywho to our staking plan. Our initial assessment that this was a Grade class winner in the making has yet to come to fruition, but we still fancy he may prove a bit better than his current mark of 140. Having returned with an easy win at Carlisle, he has since faced tough tasks in three Grade 2 outings. Making his handicap chase debut, he looks too dangerous to ignore.
Recommended Bet - Afordale Fury each way @ 20/1 with BetVictor
Recommended Bet - Johnnywho each way @ 10/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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