Thanks to the exploits of the Three Lions out in Germany, this coming weekend is one of the most anticipated in years on the sporting front. Like the rest of the nation, we will cheer on the boys against a fearsome Spain outfit on Sunday evening. But, before all that gets underway, we have the small matter of the third and final day of the Newmarket July Festival to savour.
Most racing fans will agree that the best is saved until last at HQ, with the closing day featuring one of the biggest sprint events of the season in the July Cup. The excellent Superlative Stakes, the bet365 Mile and the Bunbury Cup head up a quality undercard.
Seven races means seven winners to try and find, and here, we outline where our cash is going on Day Three.
1:40 Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes – Class 3, 7f
The two-year-olds open the show on the final day, with the ten-runner field split evenly between those with a run under their belts and those making their debut.
William Knight’s Bintabuha Bay appeals most of those with racecourse experience. Sired by the brilliant Ghaiyyath, she ran a race full of promise over this course and distance on debut in June, only getting the hang of things late but running on nicely for second.
Bintabuha Bay sets a useful standard, but Charlie Appleby has claimed four of the past seven editions of this and looks to have another likely sort in Desert Flower. By one of our favourite emerging sires, Night Of Thunder, and out of five-time Group winner Promising Run, the mount of William Buick makes stacks of appeal on paper and can make a winning start.
Recommended Bet: Desert Flower to win at Morning Price
2:12 Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap – Class 2, 7f
Sticking to the 7f trip, the three-year-old handicappers take to the stage in race two. William Haggas won this with Spirit Of Bermuda in 2021 and is responsible for current favourite Lou Lou’s Gift (4/1 with BetVictor). Up 7lb for an impressive win over course and distance last time, she makes obvious appeal but is unproven on slow turf. On pedigree, she should just about handle it, but we will look elsewhere at the prices.
At twice the price of the jolly, stablemate Hard To Resist appeals on her juvenile form, having performed consistently well in Group company last term. However, her recent return in the Sandringham Stakes was a little underwhelming. Going in the colours of The King, and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, she is narrowly passed over.
The one for us is another runner to arrive following an effort in the Britannia Stakes – the Charlie Johnston-trained Arisaig. Only eighth overall that day, she did well to finish third in her group, having enjoyed no luck in running - forced to switch around runners as the leaders kicked for home. That came on good to firm, but, being by Harry Angel, she can be expected to improve on this slower surface and runs off an unchanged mark.
Recommended Bet: Arisaig each way at 17/2 with BetVictor
2:50 bet365 Mile Handicap – Class 2, 1m
We have a bigger field than normal for this handicap event over the straight mile, with 16 runners standing their ground at the final declaration stage.
With three wins in the past six years, this is another July Festival event in which Charlie Appleby has fared well, making his sole entry, First Conquest (7/1 with bet365), worth a second look. He will need to step up on his recent fifth in a Class 4 Novice event over this track and trip, but that is by no means impossible on handicap debut and going in the first-time headgear.
Qirat (11/2 with bet365) and Volterra (13/2 with bet365) were separated by 3¼l when sixth and eleventh, respectively, in the Britannia Stakes last time. Both get in off an unchanged mark and may fare better on this slower ground, having been disadvantaged by the pace bias at Ascot. They make the shortlist, but with four places up four grabs, we prefer an each-way option.
Take a chance on the improving Treasure Time from the William Haggas operation. This son of Time Test coped well with this track when toughing it out to land a 7f contest in June. He’s up 4lb for that, but any improvement for the additional furlong may offset the rise. Getting in towards the foot of the weights, we like his chances of making the frame.
Recommended Bet: Treasure Time each way at 12/1 with BetVictor
3:25 bet365 Superlative Stakes – Group 2, 7f
Charlie Appleby has once again been the man to follow in this classy juvenile event, with the Godolphin number one saddling four of the past seven winners, including future Group 1 stars Native Trail and Master Of The Seas. Ancient Truth (6/4 with BetVictor) is the colt tasked with adding his name to the roll of honour in 2024. Two from two to date, including a course and distance win, this son of Dubawi is tough to fault. However, there isn’t much to get excited about at that price in a field stacked with unexposed sorts.
We prefer a small each-way bet on the Karl Burke-trained Line Of Force. Also, two from two headed into the race, he appears to have inherited the precocity and speed of his sire Calyx. With each of his wins coming at 6f, this step up in trip admittedly poses a slight question. However, the presence of super sire Galileo on the dam side augurs well, whilst he appeared to relish good to soft ground when winning in a canter on debut at Ripon. At 16/1 with bet365, he looks solid value to hit the frame.
Recommended Bet: Line Of Force win at 16/1 with bet365
4:00 bet365 Bunbury Cup – Heritage Handicap, 7f
A maximum field of 20 goes to post in the race preceding the big one, with the Michael Bell-trained Carrytheone currently sitting atop the market at a well-backed 10/3 with bet365. A winner off a mark of 99 over this trip in May, he looked slightly unlucky to finish only third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Arriving at the top of his game, he should go well with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Charles Hills’ Divine Libra and the useful Awaal are others for the shortlist, but the one to carry our each-way cash is the Richard Hannon-trained Dark Thirty. Like many drawn on his side of the track, this one failed to get involved in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, but he does seem to like it around here. In two previous efforts over this course and distance, he has finished third in Group 2 company and won a Class 3 handicap off a mark of 96 - when getting up close home to win with plenty left in the locker. He’s up to 96 here but finished third off this mark in April despite rearing at the start. With most firms offering five places, he will do for us in a competitive heat.
Recommended Bet: Dark Thirty each way at 22/1 with QuinnBet
4:45 My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes – Group 1, 6f
The market favours the three-year-olds in this sprinting clash of the generations, with Insiherin, Vandeek, and River Tiber occupying the first three positions in the betting. Inisherin (9/4 with QuinnBet) leads the way and looks a solid favourite following his impressive success in the Commonwealth Cup. Vandeek looked like a brilliant prospect last term but has questions to answer following a subpar return and slight health issue. River Tiber, meanwhile, boasts a similar profile to runners who have landed this prize for Aidan O’Brien in the past and may find this drop back to a sprint trip to his liking.
The admirable Kinross (13/2) leads the charge for the older brigade, having finished third in the 2023 edition, whilst Regional (8/1 with bet365) is in the form of his life as a six-year-old and was last sighted finishing second in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at the Royal meeting.
In a deep race, the ground may have gone against Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee champ Khaadem (22/1 with BetVictor). Mill Stream (14/1 with bet365) finished third in that contest and handles soft well, whilst Jasour (14/1 with BetVictor) would likely have finished closer to Inisherin in the Commonwealth Cup but for missing the break.
Plenty of likeable sorts, as you would expect of a Group 1 affair, but overall, we agree with the market in rating Inisherin as the most likely winner. Now proven on ground ranging from soft to good to firm, he didn’t stay the mile in the Guineas but sees this trip out particularly well and may prove tough to pass, with River Tiber feared most.
Recommended Bet: Inisherin to win at 9/4 with Quinnbet
5:10 Trust A Trader Handicap – Class 3, 1m4f
Recent results suggest the three-year-olds hold the edge against their elders in this contest, with eight of the past ten editions falling to a runner in that age bracket.
Amongst the older performers, Pleasant Man makes some appeal, having finished fourth of 5lb higher on his most recent outing over this distance, whilst Thundering hinted at a return to form last time out at Carlisle. However, we suspect this may be another year in which the youngsters hold sway.
Hugo Palmer’s hattrick-seeking Wonder Kid seems likely to start favourite – particularly as his most recent win came over course and distance. He’s a likeable sort but is up 8lb in a better race and seems likely to face significantly slower conditions here.
Love You Darling isn’t out of it from the foot of the weights, but the one we like is the David Menusier-trained Goodwood Odyssey. He didn’t handle the drying ground at Newbury last time, but before that, he had landed a 1m2f event on good to soft in grand style – giving 6lbs and a beating to the reopposing Spaceport. By Ulysses, this step up in trip may bring out more, and he looks fairly treated off a mark of 90.
Recommended Bet: Goodwood Odyssey each way Morning Price
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
