There are many highlights at the Cheltenham Festival, which simply doesn’t do poor races. However, no contest has lit up the lives for quite as long as the Day 2 contest of the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase.
First run way back in 1834, this 2m chase affair isn’t too far off it’s 200th anniversary, making it not only the oldest event the Cheltenham Festival but the oldest chase held anywhere in the country. The Johnny Henderson of the race title is the father of none other than Nicky Henderson. Having passed away in 2003, the staunch racing supporter had his name added to the race name in 2005.
Without a win before 2005, Nicky Henderson has landed the Grand Annual twice since his fathers name was added to the title. Pearlyman (1986) and Edredon Bleu (1998) are the standout names on the roll of honour, with both horses going on to claim the Queen Mother Champion Chase later in their careers.
Invariably attracting a double figure field closing in on the 20 runner max, the 2025 edition of this £150,000 contests looks set to be as competitive as ever. Here, we look back a the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024, and pick out a selection of stats and trends which will, hopefully, help identify a solid betting opportunity.
Well Handicapped Runners a Good Place to Start
All handicap events at Cheltenham are tough to win. As such, it never hurts to have a pound or two up your sleeve from the handicapper. Looking back at the past ten editions won off a new career high marker, whilst eight of ten had achieved a (often considerably) higher rating in the past.
Focussing on runners at or below their career high chase rating brings the 26 runner field down to 13.
Previous Experience at the Top Table
Readers of our trends series will be aware that looking for runners who have previously competed in the racing stratosphere is an angle we like in major handicap contests. The Grand Annual provides strong support for this trend, with nine of the past ten winners having lined up in Grade 1 company earlier in their career.
Focussing on such contenders in 2025 cuts the short list right down to seven.
Few Attempts at Handicap Chase Success
Whether it be a horse only just rising through the ranks, or a more experienced performer who has only occasionally dipped their toes into handicapping waters, recent results suggest that those with fewer handicap chase starts hold the edge. With eight of ten having less than ten handicap chase outings, we will use this criteria to trim our shorltlist down to four.
Festival Experience an Advantage
Part of the appeal of the Cheltenham Festival lies in seeing the same runners return to go for gold on racings biggest stage. In the case of the Grand Annual, those who have experience of the frenzied atmosphere appear to hold an edge, with eight of the past ten winners having previously appeared at the Cheltenham Festival on at least one occasion, including 2019 winner Croco Bay, who won the Grand Annual at the fourth attempt.
Interesting as that stat is, it doesn’t help us with our selection, as all four remaining runners have strutted their stuff at previous editions of the Cheltenham Festival.
The Final Four
With the trends running dry in an effort to trim the field further, we will focus on the previous Cheltenham Festival efforts of our quarter to come to a punting decision.
- JPR One, 12/1 with BetFred - Finished 57 lengths behind Constitution Hill when fifth in the 2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle. 34 lengths behind Gaelic Warrior in the 2024 Arkle but was hampered by a faller during the race
- Libberty Hunter, 8/1 with bet365 - Finished 2¼l behind Unexpected Party when second in the 2024 edition of this. That effort came off a mark of 139 and he races off 151 this time around
- Unexpected Party, 8/1 with bet365 - Pulled up in the 2022 Coral Cup; finished an 8½l fifth in the 2023 Turners Novices’ Chase, and won this off a mark of 138 in 2024. Races off 144 this year
- Third Time Lucki, 40/1 with bet365 - Fourth in the 2020 Champion Bumper, sixth in the 2021 County Hurdle, and beaten by 11l off a mark of 149 in the 2023 edition of this. Down to a mark of 135 this year
Betting Selections: Defending Champ Has Solid Claims and Fourth Time Lucki for O’Brien Runner
Marks of 156 and 151 may yet see JPR One and Libberty Hunter vie for a share of the prize money in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. However, both Unexpected Party and Third Time Lucki seem likely to run here.
Unexpected Party has yet to hit top form this season but is now only 6lb higher than when winning this in grand style in 2024. We suspect he would have won off this mark 12 months ago and he can go very close to defending his crown for Dan Skelton.
The claims of Third Time Lucki aren’t so obvious but the odds on offer more than make up for it. A dual Grade 2 winner at this trip when based with Dan Skelton, we was unlucky not to finish closer than he did in the 2023 edition having been badly hampered by a faller. He needs to step up on this seasons efforts but is tumbling in the handicap and worth chancing from the foot of the weights.
Recommended Bet - Unexpected Party each way @ 8/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Third Time Lucku each way @ 40/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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