(Image by: the._paddockandkarl_burke_racing)
Our racing weekend starts early this week, with Ayr and Newbury staging quality cards on Friday afternoon, ahead of the Saturday highlights of the Ayr Gold Cup and Mill Reef Stakes.
A trio of Listed class contests take centre stage, two from Ayr and one from Newbury, and with the final fields now confirmed, we pick out our best bets in the Harry Rosebery Stakes, Arran Scottish Spring EBF Fillies’ Stakes, and Dubai Duty Free Cup.
3:05 Ayr – British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes, Listed, 5f
Our first bet comes in a juvenile contest with an impressive recent roll of honour, including subsequent Group 1 stars Winter Power and Quiet Reflection. Karl Burke and Keith Dalgleish have fared best among the trainers, with two wins each in the past nine years.
Fourteen go to post in 2024, including six last-time-out winners. Michael Bell’s Gold Star Hero is included in that number and makes the shortlist following his win over 6f at Chelmsford in August. That represented a step up on his debut effort at Redcar, and, with speed looking to be his main asset, the drop back in trip may suit.
The highly regarded Against The Wind is another to note from the Kevin Ryan operation. Having fallen short of expectations on his first two starts, the penny dropped at Newcastle in June, as he showed a nice change of gear to score over this trip. Plunged into a hot Class 2 at York next time, he found 6f too far but showed excellent pace and went down by only 2l at the line.
Given the record of Karl Burke, King Of Light is worth a look in the market. Speedily bred - by Mehmas and out of the 5f winning dam On The Stage - he went well for a long way in the Listed Julia Graves Roses Stakes last time only to fade close home. He needs to step up on that, but arrives following a 27-day break and may be worth another chance. Stablemate Kaadi has already finished in the frame three times at Listed level and above but seems to find the line coming too soon over the minimum trip.
King’s Call has been plying his trade at a higher level than this and should enjoy the drop in grade, whilst Star Of Mehmas and Lexington Bliss arrive on an upward curve, but our vote goes to the Simon & Ed Crisford representative Coto De Caza.
By Group 1 winning sprinter Sioux Nation, and out of a mare who scored four times over this trip, this improving filly is ideally bred for this task. Having looked lost at sea on debut at Lingfield, she showed the benefit of experience when hacking up at Beverley next time. Stepped up in class for the Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes at Goodwood next time, she took her form to new heights when quickening away for a 2½l victory. This represents the next step up the ladder, but with the ground in her favour, we suspect she will prove hard to beat.
Recommended Bet: Coto De Caza
3:40 Ayr – Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies’ Stakes, Listed, 5½f
We move slightly up in trip for our second race in a contest open to fillies aged three and older. Karl Burke has again fared well in this event with two wins in the past six years – a total matched by Michael Dods.
The William Knight-trained Frost At Dawn seems likely to start favourite on the day as she drops in class from the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York. She managed only 10th of 12 that day but was only 6¾l adrift of the winner, Bradsell, at the line. Back in against her own sex, a repeat of that effort should put her in the mix.
Star Of Lady M has won her two most recent starts on turf and enjoys quick ground. David O’Meara’s filly has plenty in her favour but was found wanting in two previous outings in Listed company, which tempers enthusiasm. Similar comments apply to Katey Kontent, who ran a cracker to finish second in a Goodwood handicap last time but has failed to trouble the judge in Pattern company.
Got To Love A Grey and Azure Blue are the two for fans of trainer trends, but our vote goes to Rage Of Bamby from the Eve Johnson Houghton operation. Relatively lightly raced for a four-year-old, this daughter of Saxon Warrior shot to a 100+ rating during her juvenile campaign, with the pick of her efforts seeing her finish third in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. Winless, but largely consistent, in 2023, she ended her barren spell when powering clear to claim the Sky Bet Dash Handicap at York in July. She was a little below that level in a Listed 6f event at Pontefract last time but wasn’t helped by racing wide and hit the line well in fourth. If able to obtain a better early position here, this smooth travelling sort should prove tough to keep out of the frame.
Recommended Bet: Rage Of Bamby each way
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4:05 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes, Listed, 7f
The pick of the Listed contests comes from Newbury, with many of these having plied their trade at a higher level.
With three wins in the past nine years, William Haggas knows what it takes to succeed and sends his three-year-old Lake Forest into battle this time. A Group 2 winner as a juvenile, his two efforts this season have produced runners-up efforts in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup and Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at this track. That’s rock solid form, but he steps up to 7f for the first time here and isn’t guaranteed to stay on pedigree.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Nostrum appeared destined for Group 1 stardom earlier in his career but has yet to deliver on that promise. He is, nevertheless, a Group 3 winner over this distance and went down by just ¾l in that grade last time out at Newmarket. Arriving on the back of a wind operation, he may outclass these rivals but is far from reliable.
In a tricky contest, the one we like best is another from the Eve Johnson Houghton yard. A course and distance winner in 2022, Jumby’s most recent outing over this track and trip came in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes in August of this year. Again showing a liking for the venue, he made his challenge from the furthest back of all that day and did well to be beaten just a short neck despite having to switch right in the straight. He finished upsides the reopposing Witch Hunter and well clear of English Oak that day but is expected to be around double the odds of that duo here. With 12 of Johnson Houghton's last 24 runners finishing in the first three, he is the each-way selection in a competitive heat.
Recommended Bet: Jumby Each Way
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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