Royal Ascot: Coventry Stakes Pedigree Pointers

Continuing our series of pedigree pointers articles ahead of the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting – getting underway on Tuesday 16th June – we turn next to the standout juvenile contest on the opening day, as a field of the most promising two-year-olds in training lock horns over the 6f course.

First run in 1890, this £175,000 event has been won by several future stars over the years, including the all-time great Mill Reef, dual Guineas champ Henrythenavigator, and English 2000 Guineas hero Dawn Approach.

Our Approach

As in our Queen Anne Stakes analysis (which explains our methodology in more detail), we will examine the pedigrees of the ten Coventry Stakes winners between 2014 and 2023, tracing back only via the sires, beginning with the sire and the damsire on the respective sides of the pedigree.

In the analysis of the Queen Anne, notable trends emerged regarding the key stallions of Northern Dancer and Native Dancer, which assisted in identifying a potential value bet ahead of the 2024 edition. We will adopt the same approach here in the hope that a breeding pointer or two may emerge to highlight a bet to add to our Royal Ascot portfolio.

The Sires

As was the case in the Queen Anne, Northern Dancer dominates the sire lineage category, but this time to an even greater extent, with nine of the past ten Coventry Stakes winners tracing back to the Canadian great moving back directly from sire to sire.

The Damsires

We have a similar pattern emerging to that seen in the Queen Anne. Northern Dancer is again present in the damsire lineage but is just pipped by Native Dancer, with 50% of the past 10 Coventry Stakes winners tracing back to Native Dancer via sire lineage on the damsire side.

It is also striking to note that the five Native Dancer damsires all trace back via the Mr Prospector – Raise A Native route.

Sire and Damsire Combinations

The standout trend leaps off the page, with nine of the past ten winners tracing back to Norther Dancer directly via their sire. Of those nine, five were paired with a damsire tracing back to Native Dancer via sire lineage, and three made it back to Northern Dancer on both sides of their pedigree.

2024 Analysis

When looking at the likely challengers for the 2024 Coventry Stakes, our first step in whittling down the list of runners will be to rule out any horse which does not trace back to Norther Dancer via the sire-to-sire method. 

Of those that remain, we will create a shortlist of runners who, in addition to tracing back to Northern Dancer on the sire side, include Mr Prospector on the damsire side.

Applying just those two criteria helps considerably – narrowing the current list of 80 runners down to the following ten.

• Barnavara
• Camera Shy
• Cowardofthecounty
• Diligently
• Gabaldon
• Mr Chaplin
• One Smack Mac
• Right and True
• Rock Hunter
• Yah Mo Be There

Not bad, but 10 is a few too many to be backing ante post. We will need to identify an additional trend to reduce our field. Returning to the Sire analysis, next to Northern Dancer, the most common sire to show up was Danzig, who appeared in the sire-to-sire chronology of six of our ten winners. Applying this filter to the above ten runners leads us to just five:

• Barnavara
• Camera Shy
• Cowardofthecounty
• One Smack Mac
• Yah Mo Be There

With little further means to reduce the numbers, we will turn to the old-fashioned method of the form book to find our bet – looking at each of the runners in turn.

Barnavara impressed when landing a soft ground maiden on debut for Jessica Harrington but wasn’t as good on a quicker surface in a Group 3 at Naas next time. Good or better ground at Ascot would be a concern.

One start and one win for Michael Bell’s Camera Shy. That success came in Class 2 company, but he did well to win despite showing signs of greenness and improvement can be expected.

Joseph O’Brien’s Coward of the county made a striking impression when powering away on debut at the Curragh. That came on soft to heavy conditions, which provides a small question should conditions be quicker on the day.

In common with many runners in the field, the Ger Lyons trained One Smack Mac is one from one headed into the race. Well-backed ahead of the race, he took a while to hit top gear, but once he did, the victory was never in doubt.

Yah Mo Be There didn’t win on debut but couldn’t have come much closer – going down by just a short head at York, with greenness possibly the difference between victory and defeat in the closing stages.

With little rain in the forecast, it makes sense to focus on the last-time-out winners proven on good or quicker ground - namely Camera Shy and One Smack Mac. With both runners available at a double-figure price, we will take two against the field in the 2024 Coventry Stakes.

Coventry Stakes Recommended Bet: Camera Shy each way at 33/1 (general)

Coventry Stakes Recommended Bet: One Smack Mac each way at 16/1 (general)

Paul Harrison

Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.