The King George VI Chase at Kempton may be the most prestigious domestic staying chase of the festive period, but not too far behind it from a betting perspective, is the crown jewel of the Welsh racing year.
Taking place one day after the Sunbury-on-Thames Grade 1 showpiece, the Welsh Grand National never fails to deliver excitement and a fiercely competitive handicap puzzle for punters to solve as the work their way through the last of the festive food and drink.
With that in mind, here we look back a the 24 editions of the race from the current century and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help zero in on the most likely contenders.
Age of Winner
Whilst open to chasers aged four and above, no horse younger than six has ever came home in front. At the other end of the spectrum, Gavin Cromwell’s Raz De Maree became the oldest winning in the history of the event when claiming the 2017 ediiton. Overall, 6-9 years of age appears to be the optimum window, with 21 of the 24 winners in our sample (87.50%) falling into that bracket.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Whilst certain handicaps are prone to a runner improving massively from a their most recent outing, that doesn’t appear to be the case in this valuable event. An impressive 10 of 24 winners also scored last time out, whilst 22 of 24 (91.67%) finished in the top four on their previous racecourse appearance.
Highest Grade of Previous Races
Results suggest that this race often falls to a runner who has at least threatened to be better than a handicapper earlier in their career. 22 of the 24 winners had previously competed at Listed level or above.
Weight Carried
Whilst there have been exceptions – notably the success of Native River under 11st12lb in 2016 – the results suggest that those shouldered with a lesser burden are at an advantage in this arduous affair. 19 of the 24 (79.17%) of the winners carried 11st or less on the day.
Entries For 2024
Twenty two remain in contention for the 2024 Welsh Grand National at the time of writing. The table below displays how many of the key trends each of the entries meets.
Number | Name | 6-9yo | Top 4 Last Time | Ran At Listed+ | Carry ≤ 11st |
1 | Paint The Dream | No | No | Yes | No |
2 | Fontaine Collonges | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
3 | Iwilldoit | No | No | Yes | No |
4 | Chambard | No | No | Yes | No |
5 | Monbeg Genius | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
6 | Galia Des Liteaux | Yes | No | Yes | No |
7 | Stuzzikini | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
8 | Iron Bridge | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
9 | Where It All Began | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
10 | Your Own Story | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
11 | The Newest One | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
12 | Jubilee Express | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
13 | Val Dancer | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
14 | Amateur | No | No | Yes | Yes |
15 | The Two Amigos | No | No | Yes | Yes |
16 | No Hubs No Hoobs | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
17 | Atlanta Brave | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
18 | Evies Vladimir | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
19 | Imperial Alex | Yes | No | No | Yes |
20 | Classic Concorde | No | No | Yes | Yes |
21 | Not Sure | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
22 | Gold Clermont | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
Over half of the field meet three of our key trends, but only the following two contenders receive a tick in all four boxes.
- Iron Bridge – Carries the famous green and yellow quarters of the Aintree Grand National winning owner Trevor Hemmings. Couldn’t get near Nassalam, who produced a freakish performance in bottomless ground in the 2023 edition of this. However, he finished best of the rest and finds himself 6lbs lower in the handicap this year.
- Your Own Story – Hails from the yard of Grand National winning trainer Lucinda Russell, and boasts career form figures of 1622 in chase contests over 3m5f+. Ran a cracker to finish second in a competive event at Punchestown in May and is only 3lb higher here.
Having ran so well in the 2023 edition of this and posted an encouraging display on his recent return at Carlisle, Iron Bridge is the more solid of the two qualifiers and rates a good value each way play.
Your Own Story has a few more questions to answer on his first outing at this track, but finished a good sixth off this mark in the 2023 Scottish Grand National and is worth chancing at a big price.
Recommended Bet: Iron Bridge each way @ 12/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet: Your Own Story each way @ 20/1 with QuinnBet
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
 (1).webp)
