Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase: 21st Century Trends

Many high-quality staying handicaps pepper the winter months, but the best of them all takes place at Newbury in late November/early December each year. The phrase, “It may take a Graded class performer to win this”, is a common utterance ahead of the biggest handicaps. Rarely is that more apt than when speaking of this £250,000 3m2f affair.

First run in 1957 and known as the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup until 2016, this contest boasts an incredible roll of honour. The mighty Arkle won twice under a welter burden of 12st7lb, whilst in more recent times the prize has been landed by Cheltenham Gold Cup heroes Native River, Bobs Worth, and Denman, who defied a mark of 174 when winning the race for a second time in 2009.

With a heritage like that, the Coral Gold Cup is unsurprisingly one of the most anticipated contests of the pre-Christmas period and a key target for connections of the most talented staying chasers in training. It’s also a huge betting heat, and here we pick out the key stats and trends from the 21st century to zero in on the most likely contenders.

Age of Winner

Whilst open to runners aged four and older, no horse younger than six has ever come home in front. The eleven-year-old Rondetto (1967) is the oldest winner in the history of the race. Sizing Tennessee became the first ten-year-old winner since Diamond Edge (1981) when landing the 2018 edition. Seven-year-olds boast the best record in the current century, whilst 22 of 24 winners (91.67%) fell into the 6-8 bracket.

Highest Grade of Previous Outing

As hinted at in the list of winners mentioned above, it often takes a high-class performer to come home in front. That view is supported by the results from the current century. Over half the winners in our sample had lined up in Grade 1 company earlier in their careers, whilst 20 of 24 (83.33%) had competed at Grade 3 level or above.

Proven at the Distance?

In a race which tends to be run at a ferocious gallop, any stamina limitations of the contenders are ruthlessly exposed in the final section of the race. As such, it is no surprise to learn that most winners have previous winning form over at least 3m.

New to Handicaps?

The above table suggests that this race most often falls to a runner who has spent the majority of their career racing in Graded company and only rarely drops down in class to tackle a valuable handicap such as this. 50% of winners lifted the Gold Cup on either their first or second start in a handicap chase, whilst 17 or 24 (70.83%) had five or fewer handicap outings to their name.

Entries For 2024

Sixteen chasers remain in contention in the week leading up to the race. The table below displays how many of the key trends each of the entries meets.

As we can see, 7 of the 16 runners hit all four of our key trends:

• Senior Chief – 9lb higher than when winning a 3m1f event at Cheltenham by 1¼l. Grade 3 outing came when pulled up in the Irish Grand National.
• Colonel Harry – 3¾l adrift of a 146-rated rival when conceding 6lbs at Carlisle last time out. Races off 148 here. 3m win came in a Point-to-Point.
• General En Chef – Exclusively raced in France, where he won a 2m7½f Listed event by 11l. A mark of 148 is tough to put into the context of British form. 
• Broadway Bob – 1lb lower than when a 12½l third behind Senor Chief on his seasonal return, but only 2lb higher than when winning a Cheltenham Handicap by 1¼l in December 2023.  
• Grandero Bello – 11lb higher than when winning a 2m6½f event at Galway by ¾l in October. Second in a Grade 3 Novice event at Limerick and his 3m win came in his Point to Point.
• Galia Des Liteaux – Grade 2 winner over 3m in the 2023 Hampton Novices’ Chase. 2lb lower than when eighth in the 2024 Grand National.
• Henry’s Friend – 10lb higher than for his most recent handicap success, which came at this track, but has since won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices Chase. He made a low-key return over hurdles in November, but this race is likely his main aim.

All of the above have something to recommend them, but our two against the field are Galia Des Liteaux and Henry’s Friend. Hailing from the yard of Dan Skelton, Galia Des Liteaux often begins the season well and boasts career form figures of 112 in November. Henry’s Friend, meanwhile, has an attractive, lightly-raced profile for this and may have room to progress from a mark of 139.

Recommended Bet: Galia Des Liteaux each way @ 12/1 with bet365

Recommended Bet: Henry’s Friend each way @ 12/1 with bet365

Paul Harrison

Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.