There aren’t too many events on the racing calendar that have enjoyed the same sponsorship throughout their lifespan. However, one such contest serves as the big handicap highlight on Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival. First run in 1993, the Coral Cup has received the backing of the big betting brand ever since that inaugural edition.
2m5f around the Old Course is the trip for this fiendishly competitive affair, with 10 hurdles standing between the field and a share of the £110,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Popular hurdlers What’s Up Boys, Monkerhostin, Carlito Brigante, and Supasundae feature on the roll of honour, whilst in 2024, Dan Skelton’s Langer Dan became the first dual winner of the race when successfully defending his 2023 crown.
With the clock ticking down towards the 2025 edition of one of the most exciting handicaps at the meeting, we turn to the ten-year trends for a little assistance in unravelling this tricky puzzle.
Seven to Eight Looks Great
The Coral Cup is open to runners aged four and older, but no horse so young has ever come home in front. Aux Ptits Soins became the fourth five-year-old to prevail when scoring for Paul Nicholls on his British debut in 2015. At the other end of the spectrum, the ten-year-old Chance Coffey (1995) remains the oldest winner in Coral Cup history. Recent trends show a bias towards those aged seven or eight, with eight of the last ten winners falling into that bracket.
Applying this trend to the current 62 entries immediately brings the field down to a more manageable 23.
Long Absence Tough to Overcome
Winners have taken a variety of routes to the Coral Cup. However, in the past ten years, only Aux Ptits Soins won without the benefit of a run in the current season. At the other end of the scale, no winner arrived following a break of less than 22 days. Nine of our ten winners ran within the last 22-88 days.
Applying this trend doesn’t help a great deal, but it does count against the reasonably well-fancied Impose Toi.
Graded Experience An Advantage
Note that this stat only displays eight results due to the difficulty in equating Aux Ptits Soins' French form with the British system. Nevertheless, the Coral Cup is yet another contest where those previously deemed worth a shot at Grade 1 or Grade 2 company have an advantage, with eight of the nine winners ticking that box.
Applying this criteria cuts the field almost in half to a round dozen.
Unexposed Contenders to the Fore
Ahead of most significant handicaps, punters face a choice between the proven contenders and the potential of those who are less exposed. In the case of the Coral Cup, recent results suggest that we favour those who have had fewer chances to shine in the handicap hurdle sphere. With eight of our ten winners having four or fewer previous handicap hurdle starts, we will use this stat as our next filter.
Focussing on the least exposed contenders brings us closer to our selection as the field reduces to six.
Proven Stamina A Plus
The unexposed angle brings us to the end of our 80%+ trends. To trim the remaining runners down, we will turn to the fact that seven of the ten winners had previously scored at or within a furlong of the 2m5f Coral Cup distance.
Farren Glory, Beat The Bat, and Spirits Bay fall down at our final hurdle.
And Then There Were Three
At the end of our analysis, the well-fancied contenders have all fallen by the wayside, leaving the following trio as potential each-way options.
Sandor Clegane, 33/1 with bet365 - Set to make his third appearance at the Festival. Crossed the line in third in the 2023 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle only to be disqualified, and then finished fourth in the 2024 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
Staffordshire Knot, 40/1 with bet365 - First appearance at the Cheltenham Festival. Finished a fair second to Brighterdaysahead in the 2024 edition of the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle but has shown little in four starts this term for Gordon Elliott
Minella Missile, 100/1 with bet365 - Looked like a potential star in the making when mastering the now 142-rated Captain Teague in the 2023 Hyde Novices’ Hurdle, only for injury to rule him out for the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign. He hasn’t come close to matching that form in three runs this season but is now down to a mark of 133
Betting Selections: No Obvious Contender, so Take Three Against the Field
Overall, we would agree that Sandar Clegane is the most likely of our threesome. However, Gordon Elliott is a man to fear in an event such as this, and it is hard to forget the previous sparkling potential of Minella Missile.
Generally speaking, we need rewarding odds to throw three darts at a big field handicap. However, we are getting those here and, with no clear standout contender, we suggest a small each-way play on our final three. If any one of the three finishes in the top five, we will make a profit. Happily, bet365 are offering Non-Runner Money Back, so we needn’t worry if they fail to make the final field or take up an alternative engagement.
Recommended Bet - Sandor Clegane each way @ 33/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Staffordsire Knot each way @ 40/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Minella Missile each way @ 100/1 with bet365
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
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