This Saturday, the racing highlights come from the Scottish Borders track of Kelso, Doncaster in South Yorkshire, and the Berkshire venue of Newbury. The three courses combine to provide three contests at Listed level or above, but much of the betting turnover is likely to be generated by an attractive menu of big-field handicap affairs.
The pick of the bunch at Newbury is the 2m4f Greatwood Gold Cup. Offering a handsome £100,000 in total prize money, this contest first appeared in 2004 and provides an alternative big race target in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival.
Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2013 and 2024 (no race in 2018 or 2020 due to the weather and global pandemic) and pick out the most influential trends as we attempt to identify the 2025 Greatwood Gold Cup hero.
Previous Highflyers Hold the Edge
Returning to our angle of favouring runners with experience in Graded company in top-tier handicaps, the Greatwood Gold Cup is another example of a race where such horses have an advantage. An impressive six of our ten winners had lined up in Grade 1 company earlier in their careers, whilst eight of 10 had competed at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level.
Applying this trend to the 2025 field gets us off to a positive start by decreasing the field of 16 down to nine. Current market leader Billytherealbigred is the most notable runner to fall down at our first hurdle.
Slipping Down The Handicap
Considering so many winners of this handicap have competed at a higher level, logic suggests that many may have obtained a higher chase rating in the past. That theory holds, with eight of our ten winners racing off a mark lower than their career high, and often significantly so.
Slightly surprisingly, applying this stat reduces our numbers by almost 50% once again, with only five of our remaining nine racing off a mark below their peak.
Going The Distance
In any handicap, a proven ability to see out the distance is an advantage. Such is the case in the Greatwood Gold Cup, with eight of the ten winners previously scoring over at least 2m4f. The remaining contenders, Midnight River, Paint The Dream, Scarface, Spyglass Hill, and Tedley all tick this box.
Relatively Recent Run an Advantage
Nine of the past ten winners had run at Kempton, Wetherby, Ascot, or Cheltenham on their most recent outing, but no single race stands out as a key stepping stone. However, a relatively recent run does appear to be an advantage, with eight of the ten winners arriving on the back of a break of 60 days or less. With a ten-month absence to overcome, Spyglass Hill is ruled out as we reach our final four.
Age of Winner
Recent history suggests 7-8 is the ideal age, with seven of the past ten winners falling into this bracket. However, two wins in 10 for the ten-year-olds is possibly too high to ignore. Of our remaining quartet, only the eleven-year-old Paint The Dream looks obviously up against it from an age perspective.
The Final Three
With few other strong trends to call upon, we will return to a more form-based analysis to make our final selection, with the following trio in contention.
Midnight River - Ten-year-old from the yard of Dan Skelton, who is 11lb below his career high chase mark but has disappointed in two previous visits to this track.
Scarfacestrong - Joe Tizzard-trained eight-year-old who is 1lb lower than when a 7l fourth over this course and distance in November. He didn’t help his chance by blowing the start that day and was unlucky to finish no closer than fourth, having been hampered by a faller last time at Ascot.
Tedley - Only ¼l behind Scarface at Ascot when also inconvenienced by the fall of Bad. Out of his depth in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices Chase last time, but this is more realistic and only 4lb higher than when a narrow second at this track in November.
Betting Selections: Tedley to Make Twiston-Davies Shout
Midnight River is on an excellent mark, if anywhere near his best, but there have been few signs of that late. Scarface makes more appeal, but at more than three times his price, the best value bet is an each-way punt on Tedley.
Hailing from the in-form yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies, he sneaks in towards the foot of the weights and is more open to improvement than most as one of the youngest runners in the lineup.
Recommended Bet - Tedley each way @ 33/1 with bet365r
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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