The Grade 1 duo of the Henry VIII Novices Chase and Tingle Creek Chase dominate Saturday’s Sandown fixture from a class perspective. However, with both contests featuring a short-price favourite, more intriguing betting events can be found elsewhere on the card.
The pick of the bunch for our money is the last of the day’s ITV races, as 11 runners line up for a hugely competitive edition of the London National. 3m4½f is the trip for this stamina-sapping affair, with 24 fences standing between the field and the £50,000 in prize money. The ground at the track is currently described as good to soft but may deteriorate if a heavy band of rain in the area hits the track.
With many firms paying out on the first four home, this looks like an ideal race for an each-way punt. Here, we run the rule over all eleven challengers and pick our best bet for this demanding contest.
1. Tommie Beau – 8/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Seamus Mullins
This tough nine-year-old has won four times over 3m3½f+ on going ranging from good to heavy. Having shouldered 12st+ to victory on three occasions, he can cope with top weight but is 3lb above his career-high winning mark. Since returning in October, he looked in need of the run first time out at Sedgefield and was travelling well enough when running out over the Cross Country course at Cheltenham.
2. Certainly Red – 9/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Lydia Richards
With career form figures of 173241 at Sandown, this ten-year-old generally goes well at this track. He’s 7lb higher than when a 3½l fourth in the bet365 Gold Cup over this course and distance in April, and 4lbs higher than when a 4¼l third in the 2023 edition of this race. As such, he looks no more than reasonably handicapped but is in good form, having defied 12st to land a Class 2 handicap over 3m here in November.
3. Ballygriffincottage – 9/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Unbeaten in four Point-to-Points, big things were expected of this Stowaway gelding when he joined Dan Skelton in 2021. Having started encouragingly with two wins in 2022, he is without success in his last ten outings. Pulled up in three of his four runs in 2023, he fared better last season, with the pick of his efforts seeing him go down narrowly over 3m at this track off a mark of 135. He’s 4lb higher here and needs to bounce back from an early fall at Cheltenham last time.
4. Mr Vango – 4/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Mrs Sara V Bradstock
Lightly raced for one his age, this eight-year-old will make only his fifth start over fences here. Thrust into the Grade 2 National Hunt Challenge Cup following a ridiculous 60l win at Exeter, he found that a step too far and rounded off last season with a pulled-up effort when sent off as the favourite for the Scottish Grand National. As a dour stayer, he should be suited to this challenge and is more open to improvement than most. However, we aren’t sure he has done enough to warrant such a short price.
5. Top Of The Bill – 10/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Successful with Benbens in 2017, Nigel Twiston-Davies bids to repeat the trick with this eight-year-old son of Fame And Glory. Enjoying a productive Novice Chase campaign, he won twice at Exeter and once at Wetherby to climb 14lbs in the handicap to a mark of 137. However, he’s yet to race beyond 3m and showed very little when a 47l last of four on his seasonal return at Carlisle.
6. Broken Halo – 7/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Posted two impressive wins over 3m at this track in 2023, the second of which came off a mark of 130. He races off 133 here and showed he stays this trip when scoring at Taunton in March. However, that effort was one bright spot in an erratic campaign, which included a fall, two pulled-up efforts, and an unseat. He may improve for a recent wind operation but looks risky in the jumping department on last season’s efforts.
7. Unanswered Prayers – 8/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Chris Gordon
A gallant servant to Chris Gordon and set to be ridden by the trainer’s son Freddie. He’s yet to race over quite this far but didn’t look to be stopping when getting up late to score over 3m3½f at Fontwell last time out. He gets a 4lb rise for that, and this looks a tougher race, but at least arrives at the top of his game.
8. Collectors Item – 9/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Jonnjo & A J O’Neill
Seven-year-old who reached a decent level over hurdles, including a narrow second in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock. Slow to show much encouragement over the larger obstacles, but finally got his act together to claim a 3m event at Uttoxeter on his final start of 2023/24. That offered hope ahead of this season, but he returned on a low note to finish last of five at Newbury. 2lbs lower than his peak hurdles mark, he’s fairly handicapped but has been more miss than hit in his chase career.
9. Montgomery – 9/2 with BetVictor
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Left one Williams yard for another when switching from Christian to Venetia in February 2024. Made a spectacular start to life over fences with three successive wins to climb 22lb in the handicap. However, that progress ended with a 24l ninth of 13 effort at Ayr on his final start in April. With that run representing his only previous outing in a Class 2 event such as this, he looks short enough in the market.
10. Conkwell Legend – 18/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Neil Mulholland
Zero from eight over fences but has hit the frame on three occasions, including twice in Class 3 events over 3m4½f+. A mark 8lb lower than his chase high gives him an each-way squeak, but he showed a worrying tendency to jump out to his left on his only previous chase outing at Sandown.
11. Dr Kananga – 25/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Ben Clarke
Now 8lbs lower than when landing a 3m handicap at this track in 2022, this ten-year-old has sound claims on his best form. However, he has had two wind operations since that effort and hasn’t looked anything like the same horse over the past two seasons.
The Verdict
In a race where most of the field has some sort of question to answer, the two for our shortlist are the top two in the weights, Tommie Beau and Certainly Red. Certainly Red’s fourth in the bet365 Gold Cup is amongst the best form on offer here, but he also holds an entry in the 3m event earlier on the card. He’s one to bear in mind on the day, but for now, the vote goes to Tommie Beau.
Comfortable under a big weight and more proven over the trip than most, he was running a cracker before running out at Cheltenham last time and can stay on best of all to take this.
Recommended Bet: Tommie Beau each way @ 8/1 with bet365
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
 (1).webp)
