Following the magnificent Cheltenham Festival in March, racing fans don’t have to wait long for the next huge multi-day meeting. Early April sees the focus turn to Merseyside for the most famous jumps race in the world. We are, of course, referring to the Aintree Grand National – the one race which sees just about everyone we know place a bet.
A race so big deserves a supporting festival, and the Grand National duly gets one with the three-day Grand National Festival. Kicking off on Thursday and concluding on Saturday, this exceptional fixture features an appealing mix of handicapping and Graded class action, which, in combination with the famed scouse atmosphere, rarely fails to see the stands packed to the rafters.
The Grand National itself quite rightly takes centre stage, but each of the three days offers the opportunity to see the runners tackle the most famous fences in the game. The Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase is first up on the Thursday before the quality moves up a notch for the Topham Chase on Friday.
Falling into the Premier Handicap category, this £150,000 contest takes place over 2m5f of the Grand National course. Whilst not placing the same demands on stamina as the 4m2½f Grand National, jumping ability remains of paramount importance as the runners tackle The Chair, Foinavon, Becher’s Brook and co.
Always a hugely popular betting heat, the Topham Chase is also notoriously tricky to unravel. Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020 due to the global pandemic) and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help identify the most likely contenders.
Race Fitness an Advantage
The first stat that jumps out in the Topham is that all ten winners in our sample had the benefit of a relatively recent run. A break of 21-30 days appears to be the sweet spot but all 10 winners arrived on the back of a break of 18-43 days.
Focusing on those arriving off such a break in 2025 trims the 62 entries down to 46.
Experience in The Grade or Higher
Formerly a Grade 3 Handicap, the Topham Chase was among the races recently reclassified as a Premier Handicap. Broadly speaking, such events tend to attract a similar calibre of runners as Listed events. Using the Listed level as the low mark, we have our second 10/10 stat, with all ten of our winners having previously competed at Listed level or above; a solid stat, but one which removes just the one runner from our calculations. We move on.
Won at Class 2 Level or Above
Looking at the highest Grade of the previous outing failed to make much of a dent. Perhaps examining the highest Grade of the previous win will prove more fruitful. Only four of our ten winners had scored at Grade 3 level or higher, but nine of ten had a win at Class 2 level or above on their CV.
This trend is a little more helpful in reducing our list to 34.
Stamina Preferred
As mentioned, the Topham isn’t as demanding as the Grand National from a stamina perspective. Nevertheless, a previous win at or beyond the 2m5f trip appears to be an advantage. Looking at the above results, 2m4½f looks like an appropriate cut-off point.
Focusing on runners with a previous win over 2m4½f or further brings us down to 28.
Experience an Advantag
Given the distinctively demanding nature of the Grand National fences, logic would suggest that those with experience in the hurly-burly of a handicap chase may hold the edge. Overall, that opinion is supported by the stats. The average number of previous handicap chase starts for the winners in our sample was just above 13, whilst seven of ten had eight or more.
Eliminating those runners with seven or fewer handicap chase outings reduces the field to 15. Progress, but still too many.
7-10 the Preferred Age Range
The Topham Chase is open to runners aged five and older, but only two so young have ever come home in front. At the other end of the spectrum, Sirrah Jay (1993) remains the oldest winner in the history of the race at 13 years of age. Recent results favour those aged between seven and ten, with eight of the ten winners in our sample falling into that bracket.
In what is proving a tough race for trends fans, applying the age filter brings us down to 13.
Rating of Winner
Unlike many top British handicaps, the average quality of the Topham winner has declined in recent years – beginning our sample at just below 150 and ending just above 135. No winner was rated below 133, whilst only three were above 145. Considering the downward trend, focussing on those rated between 133 and 145 seems like a reasonable window. Applying this filter reduces the field to 10.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Not too many handicaps require us to drop to the 60% level before reaching a shortlist of an acceptable size. However, it appears that we have found one in the Topham Chase. Looking at the past ten editions, six of the ten winners finished in first, second, or third on their previous outing.
And Then There Was One
For those who wish to ignore the 60% trend, our ten-horse shortlist runs as follows:
Adamantly Chosen
Chemical Energy
Fantastic Lady
Gemirande
Jetoile
Le Melos
Outlaw Peter
Richmond Lake
Shantreusse
The Goffer
Of the above ten, only one horse achieved a top three position last time out, and he goes by the name of Shantreusse. This Henry De Bromhead runner finished seventh in the 2024 edition of this race but did well to finish as close as he did, having sprawled on landing five from home. 3lbs lower in the handicap this time around, he bounced back to form with a second in Listed company last time out and is appealingly priced to at least hit the frame.
Recommended Bet - Shantreusse each way @ 20/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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