Thus far, the Cheltenham Festival has proven to be a tough battleground for trends fans. We don’t begrudge the near miss with Unexpected Party too much, given the spectacular storyline surrounding Michael O’Sullivan and Jazzy Matty. However, with the only other solid return provided by Masaccio in the TrustATrader Plate, we hope to end the meeting on a high.
With the County Hurdle already covered, we turn our attention to the final race of the meeting. Won by Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge in recent years, the festival finale is developing a habit of falling to a future Grade 1 star. Will that be the case once again in 2025?
There are certainly several potential candidates amongst the maximum field of 24. Here, using results from the ten editions between 2015 and 2024, we pick out a selection of stats and trends to help identify our best bets in the lucky last.
Ran Within the Current Season
There are a couple of 10/10 trends in this event. The first of which centres around the most recent run of the winners. Looking at the past 10 editions, every winner had previously appeared at the track within the last 80 days. That seems like a solid place to start when narrowing down the 2025 field.
Six fall down at this first hurdle, including the highly significant duo of Kopeck De Mee and Wodhooh. It is tempting to forgive the latter, who falls only ten days outside our window and appears to be a winning machine. The former, meanwhile, is one of the talking horses of the meeting ahead of his British debut. He may well go and win for Willie Mullins but was never likely to be for us at a general price of 9/4 in a competitive race such as this.
Narrow Ratings Window
The maximum rating for this contest is 145. Interestingly, every winner over the past decade has already shown a reasonable level of ability to reach an official rating of at least 135.
Focussing on those runners with a rating within 10lb of the maximum for the race reduces the field to nine.
Unexposed Sorts Lead the Way
If there is one handicap which lends itself to seeking out the least exposed handicappers, it may well be this one. Looking back at the past ten winners, half scored on handicap debut, whilst all bar one had two or fewer handicap hurdle starts to their name.
Only five remain following the application of this filter.
Tried Above Handicapping Level
As mentioned, recent winners of this have gone on to compete in a higher grade, and it turns out that most had previously lined up outside of handicap company, with eight of ten having experience in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest.
The well-fancied Taponthego bites the dust at this stage, bringing us down to four.
Youth Holds Sway
Whilst open to runners aged four and older, none so young have ever come home in front. At the other end of the spectrum, the seven-year-olds Blow By Blow and Indefatigable share the honour of being the oldest winners in the history of the race. Since launching in 2009, all bar two editions have been claimed by a runner aged five or six. That stat counts against No Questions Asked, bringing us down to three.
The Final Three
The fact that seven of the past ten winners were trained in Ireland suggests we should favour the raiding party. However, that doesn’t help much, as our final three contenders all hail from the Emerald Isle.
Minella Sixo, 25/1 with bet365 - Solid form behind Grade 1 contenders Potters Charm and The Big Westerner this season. He looked set to run a big race in a Pertemps qualifier at Haydock last time, only to fall at the third last hurdle. This trip may be a little shorter than ideal, but the solid pace may bring his stamina into play.
The Enabler, 18/1 with bet365 - Solid bumper form, headlined by a Listed success at Navan. Has looked like a non-stayer over 3m and just clung over 2m4f in a Maiden at Leopardstown, suggesting the stiff finish may test him.
Karafan, 14/1 with bet365 - Solid form in France, but only a fair effort on his sole start for Willie Mullins last season. Returned with an easy win over just short of this trip at Clonmel but has regressed in two outings over 2m since. That said, the first out of those runs came in a strange race run in a thick fog, and he appeared unsuited by the soft ground last time. Not ruled out as he moves back up in trip.
Betting Selections: Double Up With Powerful Irish Duo
Runners hailing from the yards of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have filled two of the top four positions in five of the past ten editions of this. Hopefully, that trend will continue in 2025, as we will take a runner from each of those yards in the finale.
Minella Sixo gets the vote for Elliott, with his proven stamina likely to give him the edge over The Enabler, whilst we are happy to ignore the two recent outings of Karafan, who boasts every chance if bouncing back to the form of his Clonmel victory in December.
Recommended Bet - Minella Sixo each way @ 25/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Karafan each way @ 14/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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