- Those with a Recent Run Hold The Edge
- Six to Seven Year Olds Lead The Way
- Focus on In-Form Contenders
- Graded Winners on Top
- Tried at the Top Level
- Rating of Winner
- Four Chase Starts Ideal
- Other Stats
- Fate of the Favourite
- Betting Conclusions: The Only Way to Go
- Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Maghull Novices’ Chase:
As with many multi-day meetings, the Randox Grand National Festival builds to a closing day crescendo. For much of the general population, Day 3 begins and ends with the latest edition of the Grand National. However, there is much to look forward to before and after the main event.
The Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle provide a Grade 1 double before the big one, and the top-tier action keeps coming in the race immediately after the Grand National.
First run in 1954, 2m is the trip for the Maghull Novices’ Chase, with 12 fences standing between the field and the £120,000 prize pool. Of the novice events at this meeting, the Maghull Novices’ Chase boasts one of the most impressive rolls of honour, with Flagship Uberalles, Sprinter Sacre, Douvan, and Shiskin all featuring on the list of previous winners.
Clearly, it often takes a top-class individual to win this thrilling event, but what should we look for when seeking the winner? Here, we examine the ten results between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2024 due to the global pandemic), pick out the standout stats and trends, and identify our best betting option for 2025.
Those with a Recent Run Hold The Edge
Like many events at this meeting, the Maghull Novices’ Chase tends to attract runners who lined up at the Cheltenham Festival. As such, it isn’t surprising that nine of the ten winners in our sample arrived following a break of 21-42 days.
L’Eau du Sud, Only By Night, Touch Me Not, and Brookie all fall into the preferred break window, but Kalif Du Berlais, Special Cadeau, and Gidleigh Park do not.
Six to Seven Year Olds Lead The Way
The Maghull Novices’ Chase is open to runners aged five and older. Six five-year-olds have landed the prize, but none since Twist Magic in 2007. 1962 hero Rye Light remains the oldest winner, having scored as a ten-year-old. In recent years, those aged six or seven have held sway, with nine of the ten winners in our sample falling into that bracket.
In 2025, the five-year-old Kalif De Berlais and eight-year-old Brookie fall outside the ideal age range.
Focus on In-Form Contenders
The Maghull Novices’ Chase tends to fall to a runner who arrives on the back of a rock-solid recent effort. In the past ten years, every horse who completed the course on their most recent racecourse appearance finished in the first two.
Kalif Du Berlais, L’Eau Du Sud, and Touch Me Not all come up short on this measure.
Graded Winners on Top
As a top-level event at one of the biggest meetings of the season, you would imagine that those proven in Graded company would hold the edge. The results in our sample generally support this theory, with eight of the ten winners having previously won at Grade 3 level or above.
Brookie and Special Cadeu are the only two runners who fall down on this trend.
Tried at the Top Level
Whilst only four of the ten winners in our sample had previously won in Grade 1 company, seven had at least lined up in a Grade 1 contest.
Brookie and Special Cadeu once again come up short here.
Rating of Winner
The brilliant but ill-fated Shiskin topped the ratings in our sample, having already rocketed to a mark of 169 before his success. At the other end of the scale, 2015 champ Diego Du Charmil won with a relatively lowly rating of 143. The average rating of the winner over this period was 154.4. Eight of the ten winners were rated 150 or above.
Continuing the pattern, Brookie (135) and Special Cadeu (142) are the two runners who fall short of the 150 rating standard.
Four Chase Starts Ideal
Ornua (2019) and San Benedetto (2017) had plenty of experience under their belts when landing this prize. However, the other eight winners conformed to what you might expect in a Grade 1 Novice Chase winner, i.e. a runner with relatively few chase outings. Eight of ten had 4-6 chase starts, including six who had exactly four.
Brookie (7) and Special Cadeau (1) fall outside the preferred window. Kalif Du Berlais and Only By Night are the two runners with four previous chase appearances.
Other Stats
All ten winners had previously won over 2m
Five of ten ran in the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last time
Henry De Bromhead, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, and Willie Mullins picked up two wins apiece over this period
Fate of the Favourite
The market leader had a solid strike rate over this period, with the favourite winning five of the ten editions. However, with three of those favourites returning SPs of 2/11, 1/8 and 2/13, a £1 level stakes punt on the jolly returned a loss of £2.16.
Betting Conclusions: The Only Way to Go
The Dan Skelton-trained L'Eau Du Sud heads the market following his fine fourth in the Arkle and hits five of our key trends. However, that tally is matched by Gidleigh Park and Touch Me Not.
Just one horse hits all seven trends, and she goes by the name of Only By Night. This Gavin Cromwell mare arrives on the back of a career-best runners-up effort in the Arkle. Seven years old, rated 150, successful in Grade 2 company, and with four previous chase outings, she can make the most of her 7lbs allowance to break her Grade 1 duck.
Recommended Bet - Only By Night to win @ 17/10 with BetWay
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Maghull Novices’ Chase:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
