Saturday, 5th April, shines like a beacon on the 2025 racing calendar. There are many outstanding events during the British jumps season, but only one truly captures the imagination of the public at large. We are, of course, referring to the Aintree Grand National, which has captivated the nation ever since Lottery landed the inaugural edition in 1839.
The staying chase handicap highlight of the season takes centre stage on the final day of the Randox Grand National Festival but is just one of seven quality contests from the Merseyside track. Race two on the card sees a field of talented novice hurdlers tackle the 2m4f trip in the Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.
First run in 1976, this £100,000 contest has been claimed by racing luminaries Wayward Lad, Morley Street, Best Mate, Simonsig, and Nichols Canyon, whilst the 2024 edition fell to Gordon Elliott’s star mare Brighterdaysahead.
Looking ahead to the 2025 edition, several intriguing contenders remain amongst the 28 entries for the race, including Lulamba and Romeo Coolio, who performed with real credit at the Cheltenham Festival.
The aforementioned duo dominate the betting market, but will either prevail? Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020 due to the global pandemic), highlight the most informative stats and trends, and identify the best trends bet for the 2025 edition.
5-6 the Preferred Age Range
The Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is open to runners aged four and above. Whilst seven four-year-olds have come home in front, 2009 winner Bouggler is the only youngster to land the prize in the 21st century. Ballincurra Lad is the oldest winner, having scored as an eight-year-old in 1983.
Recent results have favoured five and six-year-olds, with nine of the ten winners in our sample falling into that bracket. Applying this trend to the 2025 field removes four contenders, including the joint-favourite Lulamba and the well-fancied Mister Meggit.
Favour In-Form Contenders
The results strongly suggest that we should focus on those runners who won or came close to winning on their most recent outing. 60% of winners also scored last time, whilst all ten arrived on the back of a top-three finish.
Ruling out all runners who finished outside the first three on their most recent racecourse appearance reduces the 2025 field to 17.
Graded Experience an Advantage
The past decade suggests that those stepping into Graded company for the first time may be up against it. Reserve Tank handled a big step up in class in 2019, but every other winner had previously competed at Grade 2 level or above.
Focussing on those with experience in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company brings us down to eight.
21-35 Day Break Ideal
Runners heading to Aintree from Cheltenham will inevitably arrive on the back of a 21-35 day break. However, even those winners who didn’t line up at Prestbury Park in March tend to fall into this window. Of the winners in our sample, only Finian’s Oscar (2017) scored following a longer break.
Applying this trend to the remaining runners reduces the field to six.
Rating of Winner
With a rating of 156, Willie Mullins’ 2016 champ Yorkhill topped the ratings in our sample, with 2019 winner Reserve Tank bringing up the rear with a rating of 139. The average rating of the winner over this period was 148.4, with nine of the ten winners rated 143 or above.
Of the six who remain, only one horse is rated above 143 or the average of 148.4, and he goes by the name of Romeo Coolio.
Leading Trainers
With three wins, Gordon Elliott needs just one more to draw level with Martin Pipe and Paul Nicholls for the all-time lead. Elliott has five runners amongst the current entries, including Romeo Coolio.
Colin Tizzard has retired, but Willie Mullins may be represented by Funiculi Funicula, Kappa Jy Pyke, and Kiss Will. Tom George and Paul Nicholls are absent this year, but Dan Skelton has Listentoyourheart and Royal Infantry amongst the current entries.
Other Stats
The Baring Bingham Novices’ Chase was the most common route to the race, with three winners arriving via that Cheltenham Festival event
Only five winners had previously scored over 2m4f or further
Only five winners had previously won in Grade 1 company
Fate of the Favourite
The market leader has an excellent recent record in this contest, with the favourite winning seven of the ten editions in our sample. A £1 level stakes punt on the favourite over this period returned a £12.75 profit. Nine of the ten winners returned an SP of 5/1 or shorter, with the only exception being Reserve Tank, who defied odds of 20/1 in 2019.
Betting Conclusions: Romeo the Standout Contender
As the only runner to survive our trends filters and hailing from a yard with an excellent record in this event, Romeo Coolio is the standout trends selection in 2025. Last sighted finishing third in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, he looks worth backing to go a couple of places better.
Recommended Bet - Romeo Coolio to win @ 11/4 with Betfred
Our Top UK Betting Sites for the 2025 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
