The 2025 edition of the Randox Grand National Festival strides into view with a sizzling opening day of action on Thursday, 3rd of April. For casual observers, this fixture is ALL about the signature event on Saturday afternoon. However, racing fans know there is much more to look forward to besides the most famous jumps race in the world.
Day one alone features four top-tier Grade 1 events, including this outstanding contest for the cream of the hurdling division. First held in 1976, the Aintree Hurdle is the only Grade 1 2m4f event of the season not restricted to either mares or novices. With the trip sitting at the midpoint between the 2m of the Champion Hurdle and the 3m of the Stayers’ Hurdle, the £250,000 contest tends to attract runners from each of those Cheltenham Festival highlights.
Thirteen runners remain in contention ahead of the 2025 edition, including a star-studded trio at the head of the market. Will one of the favourites prevail? Is there any each-way value among those at bigger prices? Here, we look at what the trends suggest, using the ten results of the race between 2014 and 2024 (No race in 2020 due to the global pandemic).
Must be Proven in Grade 1 Company
A fairly emphatic pie chart to kick things off. The ten results in our sample suggest that if a runner has not previously scored in Grade 1 company, they are unlikely to break their top-tier duck in this contest.
Applying that trend to this year's list of runners tells us what we already knew, i.e. the winner is most likely to be Constitution Hill, Lossiemouth, or Brighterdaysahead.
The Cheltenham Factor
Only two of the winners in our sample had previously scored at Aintree. However, eight boasted a Cheltenham Festival win on their CV, with those wins coming in the Champion Hurdle (5), Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle (2), Champion Hurdle & Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1), and Coral Cup (1). The standout stat here is that, despite the 4f longer trip, six of the past ten editions of this fell to a horse who had previously claimed the Champion Hurdle.
With no Cheltenham Festival wins, Brighterdaysahead comes up short by this measure. Lossiemouth, in contrast, is three from three at the Cheltenham Festival, with those victories coming in the Triumph Hurdle and Mares’ Hurdle (twice). Constitution Hill fell in the 2025 Champion Hurdle but was a nine-length winner of that contest in 2023 – adding to his runaway win in the 2022 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Jimmy Du Seuil (Coral Cup) and Wodhooh (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) are the only other Cheltenham Festival winners amongst the current entries.
Six to Eight Dominates
The Aintree Hurdle is open to runners aged four and older, but none so young has ever come home in front, whilst no five-year-old has landed the prize since Solwit in 2009. At the other end of the spectrum, Mister Morose (2010) is the oldest winner in the history of the event, having scored as a ten-year-old. Recent evidence suggests that 6-8 is the place to be, with nine of the past ten winners falling into that bracket.
Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, and Lossiemouth all fit the preferred age profile. There are no runners older than eight in 2025, but the stats are against the five-year-olds Kitzbuhel, Salver, and Wodhooh.
Top Trainers
With six wins, Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in Aintree Hurdle history. Four of those wins have come in the space of the last decade – Buveur d’Air (2017), L’Ami Serge (2018), Epatante (2022), and Constitution Hill (2023). The 2023 champ looks set to fly the Seven Barrows flag in 2025.
Two-time winner Jessica Harrington won’t be represented this year, but Willie Mullins has Lossiemouth, Jimmy Du Seuil, and Kitzbuhel among the entries.
Rating of Winner
The past 10 years have witnessed a 21lb gap between the high (Constitution Hill 175) and low (Epatante 154) rated winners. The average rating of the winner over this period is 162.9.
Constitution Hill and Brighterdaysahead are the only runners rated above 162.9 in 2025, whilst Lossiemouth, Hiddenvalley Lake, and Jimmy Du Seuil are the only others rated 154 or above.
Other Stats
Six of ten winners finished in the first three last time out
Six of ten winners had previously won over 2m4f or further
Seven of ten winners ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
Fate of the Favourite
The favourite has a solid recent record in this contest, with five of the past ten editions falling to the market leader. Despite that 50% strike rate, a £1 level stakes punt on the favourite returned a loss of £2.55 over this period. Overall, all ten winners returned an SP of 15/2 or shorter.
Betting Conclusions
No prizes for originality here, but the trends back up the status of Constitution Hill as the clear market leader. Already a winner of the race and 12lbs clear of the field on official ratings (5lbs once the mares’ allowances are considered), he’s the one they all have to beat.
Those seeking an each-way interest may wish to consider Coral Cup winner Jimmy Du Seuil, who receives more positive mentions than many in our analysis.
Recommended Bet - Constitution Hill to win @ 8/11 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Jimmy Du Seuil each way @ 20/1 with bet365
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
