- Fate of the Favourite
- Focus on Stamina
- Seven to Eight Looks Great
- Significant Break Tough to Overcome
- Tried at A Higher Level
- Relatively Unexposed
- Rating of Winner
- On A Favourable Mark
- And Then There Were Four
- Betting Recommendations: Dancing to the Winner’s Enclosure?
- Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 bet365 Gold Cup:
The opening Classics of the 2025 flat season are now only a couple of weeks away. However, the 2024/25 National Hunt campaign isn’t ready to disappear into the sunset just yet. The British season goes out with a bang on Finale Day at Sandown, with the 2025 edition of the meeting taking place on Saturday, 26th April.
The big betting highlight of the fixture arrives in the shape of the bet365 Gold Cup. First run in 1957, this Grade 3 3m4½f affair offers £175,000 in prize money and attracts a field of the most talented staying handicappers in the sport. Whilst “only” a handicap contest, all-time greats Arkle and Desert Orchid feature on the roll of honour.
Sixty-one runners remain in contention for the 2025 edition, presenting a comprehensive puzzle for punters to unravel. We will turn to the trends to narrow the field. Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020), highlight the standout stats and trends, and identify our best bet for the 2025 bet365 Gold Cup.
Fate of the Favourite
By this late stage of the season, we know all we are going to know about the contenders. However, that hasn’t helped much in picking out the winner. Only one of the ten editions in our sample was won by the market leader, handing favourite backers a loss of £6.25 to £1 level stakes. Five winners returned a single-figure SP, and four were priced between 10/1 and 16/1. Henllan Harri provided the biggest shock when coming home in front at 40/1 in 2017.
Focus on Stamina
Held over the 3m4½f trip, the bet365 Gold Cup places a premium upon stamina. Whilst only two of the ten winners in our sample had previously won over this trip or further, all ten had scored over at least 3m. This seems a good place to start to narrow the field.
Twenty-one contenders fell at the first hurdle, reducing our list of runners to 40.
Seven to Eight Looks Great
The bet365 Gold Cup is open to runners aged five and older. However, none so young has ever come home in front. At the other end of the scale, Grand National hero Mr Frisk is one of five eleven-year-olds to land the prize. Those aged seven or eight have dominated in recent times, with nine of the ten winners in our sample falling into that bracket.
Focussing on those aged seven or eight brings our list down to 22.
Significant Break Tough to Overcome
Kitty’s Light impressively claimed this contest seven days after landing the Scottish Grand National in 2023. At the other end of the scale, Potterman (2021) was the only winner to overcome an absence of 100+ days. Overall, nine of the ten winners in our sample had appeared at the track within the last 63 days.
The Welsh Grand National winner, Val Dancer, is the only remaining runner who misses this trend, bringing us down to 21.
Tried at A Higher Level
Next up, an angle we commonly turn to when assessing higher-class handicaps - seeking out those runners deemed worthy of an outing in a higher grade in the past. With eight of the ten winners in our sample having lined up at Grade 2 level or above, this looks like a stat worth applying to the 2025 field.
Focussing on those who qualify reduces our list of runners to 13.
Relatively Unexposed
The admirable Kitty’s Light stands out in our sample, having won this on his 22nd start in a handicap chase. However, most other winners had comparatively few outings in this type of race. With eight of 10 having eight or fewer handicap chase starts, this is the filter we will turn to next.
Nine remain after applying this trend.
Rating of Winner
The average rating of the winner increased by over 5lb over our sample. Whilst there were a couple of exceptions, most notably the 126-rated shock winner Henllan Harri, most winners (8 out of 10) arrived with a rating of at least 140.
Of the remaining nine, only six bring a 140+ rating to the table.
On A Favourable Mark
In any tight handicap, it never hurts to have a pound or two in hand from the handicapper. Whilst not a rule to apply religiously, logic suggests the runners who are most likely to be well-handicapped are those racing off a mark below their career peak. Turning to our sample, seven of the ten winners ran off a mark equal to or below their career-high rating.
And Then There Were Four
Applying our final rating trend leaves only the following four challengers – three of whom hail from the all-conquering yard of Willie Mullins:
- Dancing City, 10/1 with Betfred - Classy sort who has scored three times in Grade 1 company and displayed excellent stamina when claiming a heavy ground 3m1f event at Naas in January. Failed to fire in top company at Cheltenham or Aintree but looks dangerous dropping into handicap company for the first time
- High Class Hero, 12/1 with BoyleSports - Can’t match Dancing City’s calibre of wins, but was only a ½l behind his stablemate in a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Punchestown last season. Expected to line up in the Irish Grand National, but is worth considering if he heads here instead
- Henry’s Friend, 33/1 with BoyleSports - Hailing from the Ben Pauling operation, this eight-year-old is the only non-Mullins runner on our shortlist. Showed his class when claiming the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase in 2024 and has won at up to 3m2f. However, he failed to get involved at the Cheltenham Festival or in the Scottish Grand National, and this may come a little soon after Ayr
- O’Moore Park, 20/1 with Betfred - Finished a fine third to Caldwell Potter in the Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival and backed that up with an excellent second at the April Meeting. The proximity of that latest outing is a concern, but hard to rule out
Betting Recommendations: Dancing to the Winner’s Enclosure?
O’Moore Park and Henry’s Friend would be our choice of those available at bigger prices. However, we will keep this simple and restrict ourselves to just one bet in the race.
Going in the colours of Mrs J Donnelly, Dancing City looks like the clear pick to our eyes. Proven at the highest level, he ticks our key trend boxes and represents a trainer who claimed the 2024 edition of this. The Spring of 2025 hasn’t gone to plan so far, but he is worth backing to bounce back and end the season on a high.
Recommended Bet - Dancing City each way @ 10/1 with Betfred
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 bet365 Gold Cup:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
