It’s Ladies Day at Aintree on Day 2 at the Randox Grand National Festival, as Liverpool’s finest don their best frocks and head to the track. Offering one of the liveliest atmospheres of any race day in the country, Ladies' Day rarely fails to sell out.
Away from the good times in the stands, the action on the track isn’t too bad either. The Topham Chase sees the runners and riders tackle the Grand National fences 24 hours before the big one whilst a quartet of Grade 1 contests head up the stacked undercard.
Included in that number is the 2m4f Melling Chase. First run in 1991 and offering a handsome £250,000 in prize money, the race is named in honour of the nearby village made famous by the Melling Road, which crosses the Grand National course.
Considering the distance, the Melling Chase is the obvious next port of call for the Ryanair Chase contenders at the Cheltenham Festival. However, the race also attracts runners from the Champion Hurdle, leading to a fascinating clash of top-tier stars.
With Viking Flagship, Moscow Flyer, Master Minded, and Sprinter Sacre featuring on the roll of honour, it often takes a genuine top-notcher to come home in front. But, other than class, what should we look for when seeking the winner? Here, we look at the 10 results of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020 due to the global pandemic) and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help pinpoint the 2025 Melling Chase hero.
Favour Previous Grade 1 Winners
All ten winners in our sample had previously competed in Grade 1 company. The nine remaining entries in 2025 all hit this trend. However, we can trim the field a little by focusing on those who have previously won at the top level.
Embassy Gardens, Heart Wood, Libberty Hunter, Master Chewy, and Matata come up short in this regard.
Proven Stamina at the Trip
The Chase Course at Aintree doesn’t place the same demands on stamina as its Cheltenham counterpart. However, attempting to land a Grade 1 anywhere without the ability to see out the distance is a tall order. Looking at the past ten editions of this contest, nine of the ten winners had previously won over at least this far, whether under rules or in the Point-to-Point sphere.
El Fabiolo is the only runner to fall down at this stage, bringing our shortlist of Grade 1 winners proven at the trip down to four: Gaelic Warrior, Heart Wood, Jonbon, and Protektorat.
Seven to Eight Looks Great
The Melling Chase is open to runners aged five and older. However, none so young has ever come home in front. As of 2024, Fakir d’Oudairies (2021) is the only six-year-old to prevail. At the top end of the spectrum, the eleven-year-olds Katabatic (1994) and Moscow Flyer (2005) are the joint oldest winners.
Recent editions have been dominated by the 7-8-year-olds, with eight of the ten winners in our sample falling into that bracket. That stat counts against Protektorat (10) and the red-hot favourite Jonbon (9).
Not a Race for Cheltenham Festival Heroes
When looking at the ten winners in our sample, only two had previously won at Aintree. However, not one of the past ten winners had scored at the Cheltenham Festival at that stage of their career.
The Cheltenham Festival winners in the 2025 line-up are Gaelic Warrior (2024 Arkle Chase), Protektorat (2024 Ryanair Chase), and El Fabiolo (2023 Arkle Chase).
Rating of Winner
Barring the 154-rated Boston Bob in 2014, every other winner was rated 161+ on the day. With the highest-rated winner coming in the most recent edition, the upward trend line may be a little exaggerated. The average rating of the winner over this period is 163.4.
Looking at the current entries, Heart Wood (163), Matata (161), Embassy Gardens (160), Master Chewy (156), and Libberty Hunter (151) fall below this average rating – albeit only just, in the case of Heart Wood.
Previous Outing
Considering that none of our ten winners had a Cheltenham Festival win on their CV, it is interesting to note that seven of ten arrived on the back of an appearance at the March event. The Champion Chase finishing positions were 4244, and the Ryanair finishing positions were 632.
Looking at the 2025 edition, Jonbon finished second in the Champion Chase, Heart Wood finished second in the Ryanair, Protektorat fourth in the Ryanair, Master Chewy sixth in the Ryanair, and Libberty Hunter fell in the Champion Chase.
Other Stats
- Joseph O’Brien, Willie Mullins, and Paul Nicholls were the most successful trainers over this period, with two wins apiece
- Six of ten winners finished in the first three last time out
- Nine of ten winners arrived on the back of a break of 55 days or less
Fate of the Favourite
Five of the ten editions in our sample were won by the favourite or joint-favourite. Those blindly backing the market leader over this period would have earned a profit of £2.01 to £1 level stakes. Eight of the ten winners returned an SP of 5/1 or shorter. Politologue caused the biggest shock when scoring at 11/1 in 2018.
Betting Conclusions
This isn’t the cleanest of races from a trends perspective, with all of the nine runners falling down on at least one criterion. However, as a Grade 1 distance winner, the 169-rated 2025 Champion Chase runner-up Jonbon only misses the age trend and is the best overall fit.
For those seeking an each-way punt, the up-in-trip El Fabiolo makes some appeal at a double-figure price, but the most solid option is Ryanair Chase runner-up Heart Wood.
Recommended Bet - Jonbon to win @ 4/6 with Betfred
Recommended Bet - Heart Wood each way @ 5/1 with Betfred
Our Top UK Betting Sites for the 2025 Melling Chase:
 (1).webp "10Bet")
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
