- Relatively New to the Chasing Game
- Graded Experience a Must
- Six Year Olds Shine
- 150+ Rating Preferred
- 3-7 Week Break Ideal?
- Proven at Listed Level or Above
- Other Stats
- Graveyard for Favourite Backers
- Betting Conclusions: Baie to Back Up Arkle Success and Gold Worth an Each Way Play
- Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Manifesto Novices’ Chase:
Kicking off on Thursday, 3rd April, the 2025 Randox Grand National Festival begins in style. Seven contests feature on the opening day menu, including four top-class Grade 1 affairs.
Aintree wastes no time diving into the premium action, with the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase acting as Race 1 on Day 1. Named in honour of the dual Grand National winner of the late 19th century, this 2m4f contest first appeared at the Grand National Meeting in 2009.
The £120,000 event regularly attracts runners from the Arkle Chase and the 2m4f novice event at the Cheltenham Festival. Despite many horses arriving with standout claims, this has become a tricky race to unravel, with the market leader having a notably poor record.
Nine remain in contention ahead of the 2025 edition, but who will prevail? Here, we look at the ten results of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020 as a result of the global pandemic), highlight the standout stats and trends, and pick out our best betting options ahead of the latest renewal.
Relatively New to the Chasing Game
As a novice contest, this event inevitably attracts inexperienced contenders. Nevertheless, it is notable that nine of the past ten winners had four or five previous chase outings. Less than this would appear to be too few, whilst those with more than five also have a poor record.
Of the current nine entries, only Croke Park, Fascile Mode, and Mark Of Gold fit this trend.
Graded Experience a Must
Over the ten editions in our sample, no horse managed to land the Manifesto Novices’ Chase without experience at Grade 2 level or above, with eight of the ten winners having previously competed at Grade 1 level.
All nine of the remaining entries have competed at Grade 2 level or above, but Boombawn and The Kalooki Kid lack Grade 1 experience.
Six Year Olds Shine
Whilst open to runners aged five and older, Clarcam (2015) is the only five-year-old winner of the race to date. No horse older than eight has ever come home in front. The six-year-olds dominated our sample, with seven wins.
That six-year-old bias is interesting in 2025 as Arkle winner Jango Baie is the only six-year-old amongst the current entries.
150+ Rating Preferred
All ten winners in our sample were rated between 147 and 155. 2024 champ Il Etait Temps topped the ratings, with 2022 winner Millers Bank bringing up the rear. The average rating of the winner over this period was 151, with eight of the ten winners rated 150+.
Croke Park, Gidleigh Park, Impaire Et Passe, and Jango Baie are the four runners with a 150+ rating in 2025.
3-7 Week Break Ideal?
Six of the ten winners in our sample arrived on the back of a run at the Cheltenham Festival in March. However, an additional two also ran within the previous 21-48 days. No winner had a shorter break than this, whilst only two had longer.
Impaire Et Passe, Croke Park, Gidleigh Park, and the Kalooki Kid come up short on this trend in 2025.
Proven at Listed Level or Above
Three of the ten winners in our sample had already scored in Grade 1 company, whilst seven of ten had come home in front at Listed level or above.
Fascile Mode and The Kalooki Kid are the only runners who fall short of this standard.
Other Stats
- Six of ten winners finished in the first three last time out, but interestingly, none won.
- Six of ten had previously won over 2m4f or further.
- The ten editions in our sample were won by ten different trainers, ten different jockeys, and ten different sires.
Graveyard for Favourite Backers
The Manifesto Novices’ Chase has been a nightmare for favourite backers - not one of the ten editions in our sample fell to the market leader. That said, the market rarely got it dramatically wrong, with all ten winners returning a single-figure SP, including eight at 5/1 or shorter. Protektorat was the longest-priced winner at 17/2 in 2021.
Betting Conclusions: Baie to Back Up Arkle Success and Gold Worth an Each Way Play
Jango Baie missed our first stat of having 4 or 5 chase starts. However, he hit five of our criteria to emerge as the best trends fit. Having needed every yard of the 2m trip in the Arkle, he should enjoy this step back up in distance and looks fairly priced to back up his Cheltenham triumph.
Of the others, Croke Park and Mark Of Gold each hit four key trends. The former hasn’t been missed in the market, but the latter has enough in his favour to recommend a small each-way play at huge odds.
Recommended Bet - Jango Baie to win @ 5/2 with BetWay
Recommended Bet - Mark Of Gold each way @ 40/1 with Betfred
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Manifesto Novices’ Chase:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
