The magnificent Cheltenham Festival may be the classiest meeting of the National Hunt season as the stars lock horns in the signature Grade 1 events. However, in terms of mass appeal, nothing comes close to the Merseyside marvel of the Aintree Grand National.
First run in 1839, when aptly won by a horse going by the name of Lottery, this 4m2½f £1million contest has captured the imagination of the British public for the best part of 200 years.
The race for which the term “once a year punter” was invented has undergone a few changes in recent years – the fences aren’t so formidable, nor the field so large – but the Grand National continues to dwarf all other contests when measured by betting turnover.
With the increasing quality of the race, the National isn’t quite the lottery it is made out to be, and there are numerous stats and trends which can assist in identifying the most likely contenders. Here, we look back at the ten editions of the great race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020 due to the global pandemic) and zero in on our early punts for the most visually spectacular contest of the season.
Graded Experience an Advantage
Formerly a Grade 3 handicap, the Grand National now falls into the replacement Premier Handicap category. In recent times, it has taken a horse either proven in or verging on Graded class to prevail. As such, it doesn’t come as a surprise that eight of the past ten winners had previously competed at Grade 2 level or above.
Sifting the current 67 runners through this Graded race filter reduced the numbers to 53.
Unexposed in Handicap Sphere
Given the formidable jumping challenge presented by The Chair, Becher’s Brook, Valentines, etc, some degree of chase experience is surely an advantage in the National. However, recent results suggest that too much experience in the handicap chase sphere is a disadvantage. With nine of the past ten winners having seven or fewer handicap chase starts, we will use this as our next filter.
Focussing on those with seven or fewer handicap chase starts brings us down to 31.
Focus on In-Form Contenders
As a 16+ runner handicap, the Grand National pays out each way on the first for positions – although many firms offer each-way terms on the first 5, 6, 7, or even 8, past the post. Recent results suggest we should focus on those runners who achieved a top-four position last time out, with eight of our ten winners falling into this bracket.
Applying this trend to the remaining runners reduces the field to 14.
The Search for Proven Stamina
With so few 4m+ contests on the racing calendar, it can be hard to know if a horse truly stays this far until they are asked to do it Aintree. Nevertheless, at least some degree of proven stamina appears to be an advantage, with eight of the past ten winners having previously won over at least 3m.
Four runners bite the dust at this stage as we reach our final ten.
8-9 The Preferred Age Bracket
Five 5-year-olds have won the Grand National, but these days the race is restricted to those aged seven and older. At the other end of the spectrum, 1853 hero Peter Simple remains the oldest winner in the history of the race, having defied father time at fifteen years of age. Returning to our ten year sample, eight to nine year olds appear to hold the edge, with eight of ten winners falling into that bracket.
Eliminating those outside of our preferred age bracket brings us down to seven.
The Final Seven
With the remaining trend angles failing to reduce the field, it is time to discover the identities of our final seven:
- Nick Rockett, 14/1 with bet365 - Started favourite for the 2024 Irish Grand National but managed only seventh behind Intense Raffles. However, he looks like an improved performer this season and mastered his Fairyhouse conqueror in the Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Lightly raced in the sphere and hailing from the yard of Willie Mullins, he merits plenty of respect.
- Capodanno, 66/1 with Betfred - Also trained by Willie Mullins, Capodanno is one of six JP McManus-owned runners amongst the current entries. A Grade 1 winner in his pomp, he’s a classy performer but has finished pulled up and a 50-length sixteenth in his two previous Grand National outings.
- Minella Cocooner, 25/1 with bet365 - Helped Mullins to the British Trainers title last season when landing the bet365 Gold Cup. Finished ahead of Nick Rockett in the 2024 Irish Grand National but was behind that rival in the Bobbyjo Chase. That said, he rallied late in that 3m2f event, and stamina looks to be his strong suit.
- Perceval Legallois, 12/1 with Betfred - Gavin Cromwell has already enjoyed a memorable year thanks to the success of Inothewayurthinkin in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Could he follow up in the headline act at Aintree? Following back-to-back Listed wins at Leopardstown, Perceval Legallois arrives at the top of his game on his first outing beyond 3m½f.
- Hyland, 25/1 with bet365 - The Grand National is one of the very few prizes to have eluded Nicky Henderson during his illustrious training career, but the Seven Barrows handler hasn’t given up hope just yet. Boasting jumping as a strong suit, Hyland arrives in tip-top form, having finished first or second in all four outings this season. Likely to be up with the leaders, he could go well if seeing out the distance.
- Three Card Brag, 25/1 with bet365 - With three wins, Gordon Elliott is the most successful Grand National trainer of the 21st Century. The master of Cullentra House has ten entries in 2025, headed by this son of Jet Away. In the frame in five of six outings over fences, he looks like one of the more reasonably handicapped Irish runners off a mark of 146.
- Mr Vango, 33/1 with Betfred - With the London National and Midlands Grand National already in the bag, this giant of a horse looks like a natural contender for Aintree. However, he’s only 49 on the list, which suggests he will likely need to wait until 2026 to take his chance.
Betting Selections: Gift to Go Well and Finn Flying Under Radar
Of the seven shortlisted runners, Mr Vango is unlikely to make the cut, and Capodanno has disappointed twice in the race. Nick Rockett is more interesting, but that flop in the Irish version leaves a nagging doubt regarding his stamina. Perceval Legallois is a horse we like and may yet join the staking plan, but not at 12/1.
All of which leaves us with an appealing trio of 25/1 shots. All three have stamina to prove at this trip, but that is the case for most of the field. The excellent jumping of Hyland and Three Card Brag should stand them in good stead, whilst Minella Cocooner has long hinted that this sort of slog may suit him well.
Recommended Bet - Minella Cocooner each way @ 25/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Hyland each way @ 25/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Three Card Brag each way @ 25/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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