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The National Hunt campaign never fails to produce thrills and spills aplenty. From the opening weekend at Chepstow to the Spring festivals, barely a week passes by without a quality contest to keep jumps fans entertained.
For many involved in the jumping game, all roads lead to Cheltenham Racecourse in March, but many of the most memorable moments unfold further north at the Merseyside venue of Aintree.
There’s simply nothing quite like the sight of the brave runners and riders tackling the most famous fences in the sport as they set out over legendary obstacles such as Becher’s Brook, The Chair, and Canal Turn.
The Grand National is of course the most famous chase on these, or any other, shores, but the April feature isn’t the only contest which presents the most formidable jumping challenge in the world.
December’s Becher Chase is regularly viewed as a key Grand National trial, but our first sighting of the famous fences comes a month earlier. First run in 2003, the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase provided a spectacular addition to the early season and proved to be a smash hit with punters and connections of the most spring-heeled chasers in training.
Scene of successful gambles and shock results in equal measure, this race presents a fascinating puzzle to solve. With that in mind, we look back at the 21 editions of the race to date and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help narrow the field.
Age of Winner
Open to runners aged six and older, Dark Room kicked things off for the youngsters when claiming the inaugural edition. At the other end of the spectrum, the eleven-year-olds Hakim (2005) and Gas Line Boy (2017) are the oldest winners to date. Overall, those aged eight or nine boast the best record, with 14 of 21 winners (66.67%) falling into that bracket.
Rating of Winner
Originally a Class 3 affair, the steadily increasing quality of this contest (much like the Grand National itself) has produced a marked increase in the standard of horse it takes to prevail – resulting in the contest being elevated to Class 2 status in 2008. Dark Room was rated 108 in that inaugural edition – only once winner has scored off a lower mark since. Partly aided by the victory of the 167-rated As De Mee in 2016, the average rating of the winner has climbed by almost 30lbs to just under 150. Since the 2008 reclassification, only one winner has been rated below 130.
Ratting Compared to Career High Mark
In any competitive handicap such as this, it never hurts to have a pound or two in hand from the handicapper. That theory holds in this contest, with only four of 21 winners scoring off a career-high rating. 17 of 21 were rated (80.95%) at 1lb – 12lb higher earlier in their careers.
Highest Grade of Previous Outings
Whilst “only” a Class 2 handicap affair, the Grand Sefton regularly attracts runners who have plied their trade at a higher level in the past. 16 of the 21 winners (76.19%) in our sample had lined up at Listed level or above earlier in their careers.
Fate of the Favourite
Five of the first 21 favourites came home in front. That represents a 23.81% strikerate, which is a little lower than the 30% average across all races, but solid for a competitive handicap such as this. Those supporting the market leader were rewarded with a profit of £6.33 to £1 level stakes. Overall, 10 of 21 winners returned a single-figure SP and nine were priced between 10/1 and 20/1. Lampions Du Bost caused the biggest shock when coming home in front at 66/1 in 2007.
Other Stats
- Paul Nicholls leads the trainer’s table with three wins.
- Dual winner Sean Bowen is the only jockey with more than one win to his name.
- 19 of 21 winners had previously won over 2m4f or further.
- 20 of 21 winners arrived on the back of a break of 20 days or more.
Best Trend Fit in 2024
17 runners remain in contention ahead of the 2024 edition on Saturday, 9th November. To zero in on our selection, we will apply the six strongest trends. Namely:
- Break of 20 days or more.
- Won over 2m4f+.
- Below career high rating.
- Rated 130+.
- Previously competed at Listed level or above
- 8 or 9 years old.
Applying those filters to the 17-runner leaves only two:
- Richmond Lake
- Harper’s Brook
Sporting the famous Trevor Hemmings silks, Richmond Lake represents an ownership group which covets success over these fences above all else. He ruined all chance when clattering the second in the Topham Chase but, on the plus side, did complete the course. This represents his first run in 211 days but he boasts form figures of 161 following breaks of 185 days or more and is back down to his last winning mark.
Harper’s Brook has (deservedly) developed a reputation as a bit of a rogue, but is a talented performer on his day. This represents his first outing over the National fences, but he has only failed to complete once in nine chase outings and generally jumps well. 1lb below his career high rating, he sports the first time tongue tie on his debut for the Dan Skelton operation.
With both runners priced at 20/1+, there is no reason to choose between them, with our advice being to back both each way.
Recommended Bet: Richmond Lake each way @ 25/1 bet365.
Recommended Bet: Harper’s Brook each way @ 20/1 bet365.
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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