Saturday, 19th October, sees Ascot Racecourse host its final major fixture of the 2024 flat campaign as the eyes of the racing world turn to the Berkshire venue for British Champion’s Day.
This top-class day of racing sees the champion trainer and jockey of 2024 crowned and features a six-race card, including a quintet of Group races headlined by the Qipco Champion Stakes.
The odd race out at this Group race feast is the closing event of the Balmoral Handicap, which adds a nice dose of variety in the shape of a big field handicapping puzzle. Only added to this fixture in 2014, the race reached its 10-year anniversary in 2023 and looks as tricky as ever this year. Here, we look back at the past ten editions of this 1m £200,000 contest and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help narrow the field.
Age of Winner
Open to all runners aged three and older, 2021 winner Aldaary is the only horse from the youngest age bracket to come home in front. At the other end of the spectrum, 2022’s 80/1 shock winner Shelir became the oldest winner in the race's short history. With 80% of winners aged either four or five, it makes sense to prioritise such contenders in 2024.
Rating of Winner
The 96-rated duo of Musaddas (2015) and The Gatekeeper (2023) are the low men on the totem pole in terms of official rating, with the 109-rated Aldaary topping the tree. Overall, the trend line has remained remarkably steady – barely moving an inch from a shade over 102.
Rating Compared to Career High Mark
The average rating of the winner doesn’t help narrow the field too much, but a stronger trend emerges when we compare the rating of the winner on the day with their career-high rating. Overall, eight of the ten winners were running off a rating equal to or below their previous high rating, with only two winners running off a new career high.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Invariably attracting 16+ runners, the Balmoral Handicap almost always offers each-way terms on the top four places – with many firms paying out on additional places on the day. Seven of the ten winners arrived on the back of a top-four position last time out, suggesting we should favour those runners who put in a solid display on their most recent racecourse appearance.
Highest Grade Previously Competed In
Two trends stand out in this area. Firstly, all ten winners had at least competed at Class 2 level. Secondly, eight of the ten had competed at a higher level in the past, including two who tried their luck in Group 1 company.
Fate of The Favourite
The Balmoral Handicap hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for punters. 2017 champ Lord Glitters is the only winning favourite to date, handing supporters of the market leader a loss of £6.50 to £1 level stakes. Five winners returned a single-figure SP; two were between 12/1 and 16/1, with the remaining three 20/1 or bigger, including Shelir’s 80/1 shocker.
Other Stats
- 10 of 10 arrived following a break of 25 days or less.
- 9 of 10 winners had nine or fewer starts in the current season.
- 9 of 10 had previously won over a mile.
- 7 of 10 ran in the Ascot Challenge Cup or the Cambridgeshire last time.
- David O’Meara was the most successful trainer with three wins.
Best Trend Fit in 2024
42 contenders remain in contention at the time of writing – 22 are sure to miss out due to the 20-runner cap. As ever, we will attempt to whittle this list down considerably by applying the strongest trends, namely:
- Break of 25 days or less.
- Won over 1m.
- Nine or fewer starts in the current season
- 4 or 5 years of age
- Previously competed at Listed level or above
- At or below career-high official rating
Applying those filters to the 42-runner list brings us down to the following eight:
- Cicero’s Gift
- Wigmore Street
- Toimy Son
- Mexicali Rose
- Padishakh
- Mirsky
- Theoryofeverything
- Spirit Catcher
That’s a few too many for the staking plan, so we will turn to the next strongest trends on our list:
- Top 4 finish last time
- Ran in the Ascot Challenge Cup of Cambridgeshire last time
Adding those filters turns eight into one, leaving the David Menuisier-trained Toimy Son as the horse to get the trends vote. Running an excellent race to finish third in the Cambridgeshire last time, this five-year-old landed the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood back in August and appears to be maintaining his form well into the Autumn. He gets in off 95 here but having been rated as high as 109 in the past, he remains feasibly handicapped. The one negative is a zero-from-three record at Ascot, but at 33/1, we aren’t going to have everything in our favour, and he looks worth a small each-way play.
Recommended Bet: Toimy Son each way @ 33/1 bet365.
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
