Saturday sees the Northwest venue of Haydock host its most prestigious National Hunt contest of the season. 3m1½f is the trip for the Grade 1 Betfair Chase, with nineteen fences standing between the runners and a share of the £206,200 in total prize money.
Since being introduced to the National Hunt programme in 2005, this jewel of the north has become one of the most coveted staying chases of the season and regularly attracts runners who contest the King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Will a King George hero or Gold Cup champ emerge from the 2024 field? Only time will tell.
With the final field confirmed, we present a snapshot of all nine runners and pick out our best betting selection for what promises to be a fascinating renewal.
1. Ahoy Senor – 6/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
This nine-year-old has served his yard with distinction since making his first appearance for Lucinda Russell in 2021. Picking up a first Grade 1 in the 2021 edition of the Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree, he returned to that track to add a second in the 2022 Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Having also finished second in the past two renewals of the Aintree Bowl, the Merseyside air appears to suit him well. A winner on good and soft ground, he shouldn’t be unduly inconvenienced if the rain arrives and looked in rude health when staying on late for third in his recent comeback over an inadequate 2m4f.
2. Bravemansgame – 12/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Likened to the mighty Denman from an early stage, this Paul Nicholls stayer has largely delivered on the hype to bag wins in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle (2020), Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (2021), and King George VI Chase (2022). However, he hasn't won since that Boxing Day triumph and looked to have taken a slight backward step last season. A wind operation preceded a disappointing defeat in the Charlie Hall Chase last time, and this contest feels like a last roll of the dice in elite company. That said, if anyone can bring a chaser back his best on the big day, Paul Nicholls is the man.
3. Capodanno – 8/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Given his prowess in the staying division, it is initially surprising that Willie Mullins has never won this race. However, considering he has never had a runner in the race, he didn't have much chance. It would be most Mullins-like to bag the prize at the first attempt, but whether Capodanno is up to the task, we aren’t so sure. In common with Bravemansgame, this JP McManus runner is without a top-level success since 2022 and was last sighted finishing nearer last than first in the Punchestown Gold Cup. On a more positive note, he looked good when claiming the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase last season and when keeping on for fourth in the Ryanair Chase. However, those efforts were only two bright spots in a season of mediocrity. Whilst talented, those inconsistencies diminish the appeal of a punt at a single-figure price.
4. Gold Tweet – 20/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Gabriel Leenders
One of the more intriguing runners in the field, Gold Tweet bids to land a first Betfair Chase for France. Still only seven years of age, this Gabriel Leenders runner successfully crossed The Channel to cause an upset in the 2023 Cleeve Hurdle and has reached a similar level of form over fences. Making his third start of the season, he may be fitter than most but is zero from four in Grade 1 company.
5. Grey Dawning – 9/4 with BetVictor
Trainer: Dan Skelton
The new kid on the staying chase block posted a big career best when seeing off Ginny’s Destiny in the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. A tilt at the Gold Cup was mentioned on the back of that success, and that seemingly remains the case despite a subpar performance on his final outing at Aintree. Having landed a novice event on this card in 2023, the track holds no fears, but with all his best form coming on soft ground, he may need the rain to arrive.
6. Hewick – 10/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: John Joseph Hanlon
In stark contrast to his giant of a trainer, Hewick usually looks up to his rivals. Despite that small stature, he arrives at Haydock as a dual Grade 1 winner, headlined by his tough staying effort to claim the 2023 King George VI Chase. Looking like he needed the run on his return in October, he stepped up on that to finish a fine second to Envoi Allen in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase earlier in the month. At his best on good ground, connections will pray that the forecast rain, sleet, and snow avoid the Haydock turf.
7. Royal Pagaille – 4/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Venetia Williams
With Kauto Star winning this four times, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai on three occasions, and Silviniaco Conti twice, the Betfair Chase is no stranger to a repeat winner. Bidding to add his name to that list year is the Venetia Williams-trained Royal Pagaille. Despite starting as the third choice of the market in a four-runner field last year, this Rich Ricci star hacked up by 6½l, leaving King George winner Bravemansgame, Grand National champ Corach Rambler, and Ryanair Chase hero Protektorat trailing in his wake. The fact that he hasn’t been seen since falling in the Cotswold Chase in January is a negative, but if returning at his best, he boasts rock-solid claims.
8. The Real Whacker – 12/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Patrick Neville
Following a spectacular 2022/23 season, which culminated in a thrilling verdict over Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, many expected this bold-jumping front-runner to take high-rank last season. For one reason or another, things didn’t work out that way, with the pick of his efforts seeing him finish second to Capodanno in the Cotswold Chase. Returning with a fall in the Kerry National, it appeared we may be in for more of the same this term. However, the eight-year-old bounced right back to form with a sparkling display of jumping to land the Charlie Hall Chase last time out. The jury is out as to how strong a race that was, but he could be dangerous if getting into a good early rhythm.
9. Limerick Lace – 9/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Rounding out the nine is this slightly surprising entry from the Gavin Cromwell operation. Although having followed up her win in the 2m4½f Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham with an appearance in the Grand National, perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised wherever Limerick Lace shows up. A lack of a win in a Grade 1 or over this trip are potential negatives but she looked a classy operator when mastering the talented Dinoblue at the festival and receives 7lb from her eight rivals as the only mare in the field.
The Verdict
Grey Dawning is clearly held in the utmost regard by Dan Skelton and impressed at Cheltenham last season. However, he looks too short in the market. Our reason to steer clear at short odds stems from a slight doubt regarding the quality of that Turners Novices' Chase form. Those who finished behind that day have made 12 appearances since, with the only win coming in a handicap at Ayr, whilst Grey Dawning was put in his place by Il Etait Temps on his final start at Aintree.
Hewick would be our each-way choice if the ground remains good. However, this is usually run in testing conditions and the weather gods seem intent on making that so in 2024.
Royal Pagaille is a tempting option, but that long absence is off-putting – particularly as his yard is without a winner in the past two weeks.
The one to be on is Ahoy Senor. On his recent return at Aintree, the Lucinda Russel runner caught the eye to such an extent that his jockey was required to provide an official explanation to the stewards. Whether or not he would have won granted a more positive ride is difficult to say, but for a horse who usually needs his first outing, we were most encouraged by that display. He found only Gerri Collumbe too good in his last outing in a race of this nature, and that Gordon Elliott star is rated 5lb higher than any of these rivals.
Recommended Bet: Ahoy Senor @ 6/1 with BetVictor
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
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