Located on the southwest Scottish coast, the wonderful Ayr Racecourse is the jewel in the crown of racing north of the border. Home to Scotland’s biggest National Hunt race, in the shape of the Scottish Grand National, the track also hosts the highest profile flat contest, as a bumper field lines up for the fast and furious Ayr Gold Cup.
Held over the straight 6f and offering £180,000 (2024) in total prize money, the race rarely fails to fill to capacity – guaranteeing a thrilling spectacle and a huge betting heat.
Attempting to solve a 20+ runner 6f event is rarely a straightforward task. As such, it never hurts to have a trend or two on your side. Here, we look back at the 24 editions of the race between 2000 and 2023 and pick out a selection of stats which may help zero in on the most likely contenders. Note that the data contains 25 results due to the dead heat in the 2018 edition.
Age of Winner
The Ayr Gold Cup is open to all runners aged three and older but is rarely won by a veteran – the grand old servant Summerghand becoming the oldest winner in the modern era of the race when coming home in front in 2022. 24 of 25 winners (96%) were between 3 and 6 years of age, with 4-6 (84%) appearing to be the sweet spot.
Weight Carried
Ahead of the 2024 edition, the maximum weight is no less than 9st12lb. Any horse rated 110 will carry 9st12lb, with 1lb added for each rating point above 110. The minimum weight is now 8st2lb. The above table shows a gathering of winners around the “lucky weight” of 9st2lb, with 17 of 25 winners (68%) carrying between 8st12lb and 9st6lb.
Rating of Winner
In common with many major UK handicaps, the quality of horse it takes to land the Ayr Gold Cup appears to be increasing with time – as displayed by the trendline, which rises from a starting point of around 95 to just under 105. If we split the data in half, we find that between 2000 and 2011, a 100+ runner won on four occasions. Between 2012 and 2023, only two horses rated below 100 came home in front.
Top Trainers
The late David “Dandy” Nicholls compiled a phenomenal record in this contest, with six wins between 2000 and 2010. Of the current trainers, Kevin Ryan is rapidly closing in on Nicholls’ tally, having picked up his fifth win with Bielsa in 2021.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
A positive performance last time out is rarely a negative in any race but has not been essential in this event. First place was the most common last-time-out finishing position of the winner, but a significant percentage failed to finish in the first four on their previous racecourse appearance
Difference Between Winning Rating and Peak Career Rating
The graph above displays the difference between the rating of the Ayr Gold Cup winner on the day and their highest previous Official Rating. Logic dictates that runners rated below their previous best may be slightly more likely to have something in hand from the handicapper, and that theory holds here. Of the 25 winners in our sample, 10 were racing off a career-high mark, whilst 15 had been rated higher in the past.
Fate of the Favourite
Races don’t come too much trickier for the market to call correctly than a huge field sprint handicap and punters have struggled in the Ayr Gold Cup. Of the 24 editions in our sample, only four were won by the favourite or joint-favourite. A £1 level stakes bet on the market leader over this period returned a loss of £4 – close to 20% of the total stake.
Other Stats
- 18 of 25 winners (72%) had run within the past month. No winner arrived following a break of more than 50 days.
- 19 of 25 (76%) had previously won over 6f.
- 19 of 25 (76%) had previously won at Class 2 level or above.
- 15 of 25 (60%) had previously competed at Listed level or above – including nine who had lined up in Group 1 company earlier in their career.
- Pivotal (3), Dark Angel (2), Invincible Spirit (2), Kheleyf (2), and Unfuwain (2) were the only stallions to sire more than one winner.
Best Trend Fit in 2024
Such is the popularity of the Ayr Gold Cup the race contains no fewer than 217 entries at the seven-day declaration stage. However, simply by focusing on runners between four and six years of age, rated 100+, and set to carry between 8st12lb and 9st6lb, we reduce this list to the following four.
- Wiltshire: Won a Class 2 6f event last time and has competed in Group 3 company, but is 6lb above his previous high mark and arrives following an 84-day break.
- Get It: Won the Class 2 Stewards Cup over this trip in August. Fourth in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes back in 2020, but is on a career-high mark.
- Pink Crystal: 6f winner and landed a 5½f Listed event at this track in September 2023. 4lbs below career-high rating.
- Mostabshir: 2023 St. James’s Palace Stakes contender, sired by Dark Angel. 8lbs below career high but both career wins have come over a mile.
Of that quartet, the William Haggas-trained Pink Crystal appears to be the best overall fit, with her 2023 win at this meeting an eye-catching piece of form. However, we also want the John & Thady Gosden runner Mostabshir on our side. Whilst predominantly campaigned over further, he showed enough in the Stewards Cup last time to suggest he may be worth another crack at 6f. Only beaten 1¾l despite missing the break, he is 4lb better off with his conqueror, Get It, and may turn the tables.
Recommended Bet: Pink Crystal each way @ 25/1 with BetVictor.
Recommended Bet: Mostabshir each way @ 14/1 with bet365.
Jack Hartman
A lover of all sports, Jack has spent the last decade covering some of the biggest and best events on the planet. Living and breathing sport every day, he loves nothing better than bringing the excitement of events to his readers.
