Moving deeper into February, the mighty shape of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival looms ever larger on the horizon. Only around three weeks to go now before the roar greets the start of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle once more. Like most racing fans, we can’t wait for it all to begin. However, there is much to look forward to between now and then, with this Saturday laying on another cracking afternoon of entertainment.
Handicapping fare tops the punting bill this weekend, with the Ladbrokes Trophy from Kempton and the Eider Chase up at Newcastle taking up their traditional positions as two of the biggest betting heats in the lead up to the madness of March.
Here, we turn our attention to what is one of the highlights of the season at the North East venue. Held over a gruelling 4m1½f, often in near bottomless conditions, few events place a stronger emphasis on stamina than the Eider Chase. Staying power aside, what else does it take to claim this £80,000 event?
Here, we look back at the 20 editions of the event since 2000 (no race in 2003, 2005, 2010, 2013, or 2020 thanks to the uncooperative Newcastle weather) and present a selection of stats and trends which may assist in identifying the most likely winner.
Stamina to the Fore
There aren’t too many events in their year held over such an arduous distance as the Eider Chase. Only 2006 champ Philson Run had scored over 4m+, when landing the previous season’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. Nevertheless, all 20 winners in our sample had previously shown an aptitude for staying events by scoring over at least 2m7½f.
This trend only really confirms what we would expect for an event such as this. Of the 33 runners remaining in contention, only Passing Well, Hudson De Grugy, Knockanore, and Lord Roco fall down on this trend.
Well Handicapped Runners Hold the Edge
In a competitive event such as this, logic suggests that it is an advantage to have a few lbs in hand from the handicapper. The results from our sample back up this theory. Of the 20 winners, 16 were rated either at or below their career high rating, with only four racing off a new career high mark.
Applying this stat to our remaining runners doesn’t help too much, but does suggest that Collectors Farm, O’Connell, and Sporting Ace may be up against it.
Weight Carried
Given the extreme demands of the race, you might think that a light weight would be an advantage. Slightly surprisingly, this does not appear to be the case in the Eider Chase, with 15 of the 20 winners in our sample carrying 11st or more on the day.
The most notable challenger to come up short on this trend is the well-fancied Jacks Parrot. In ruling out those slated to carry less than 11st, we are left with a field of 16.
Age of Winner
The Eider Chase is open to runners aged five and over. However, no horse younger than seven has ever come home in front. At the other end of the spectrum, Peaty Shandy remains the oldest winner in the history of the event, having scored as a thirteen year old in 1987.
Nine year olds have an excellent record in the current century, with ten wins from 20 editions. In an effort to trim the field, we will focus on those aged between 8-10, with 16 of 20 (80%) of winners falling into that bracket – out go the eleven year olds Ilikedwayurthinkin and History of Fashion.
Tried at a Higher Level
Looking for horses who have run at a higher level in the past is an angle we like in big Saturday handicap events and may be worth following in tis contest. Of the 20 winners in our sample, 15 had previously competed at Listed level or above.
Bretney, Choosethenews, and Bodhisattva bite the dust at this stage, bringing our list of candidates down to 11.
Less Exposed Runners Hold The Edge
Ahead of any handicap, many punters are keen to focus on the runners who are relatively unexposed in the sphere. Whilst this race has fallen to vastly experienced runners in the past, the stats suggest that those with ten or fewer handicap chase starts have the edge.
Applying this trend to our remaining runners proves productive. Top weight Iron Bridge, defending champ Anglers Crag, and 2023 Midlands Grand National winner Major Dundee, all come up short as our numbers come down to four.
The Final Four
Having run the 33 runners through our filters, the four to make the shortlist are:
Git Maker - Jamie Snowden course winner, who runs off the same mark as when third in the 2024 Scottish Grand National. Likeable, but raced only last week in the Haydock Grand National Trial.
Egbert - Pulled Up behind Git Maker in the Scottish Grand National, which poses a question regarding this sort of test. However, won well at Haydock in December and arrives fresh following a break.
Jubilee Express - Big eyecatcher when flying home for second in the Welsh Grand National but couldn’t back that up at Haydock. Unsuitable going may have been an excuse that day but is another who would arrive on a very short break.
Gaboriot - Nine year old who is vastly experienced in the Hunter Chase sphere. Scored over 4m½f at Cheltenham in May 24 so earns a tick in the stamina box. Yet to hit the heights this term but has been given a break since December.
Betting Selections: Greenall, Guerrierom, and Gaboriot to Strike
With questions regarding the quick turnaround for Git Maker and Jubilee Express, and Egbert having flopped on his only previous outing over this sort of trip, the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero-trained Gaboriot is the one to be on.
Falling into the ideal age category and already a winner over almost this far, he makes plenty of each way appeal at a double figure price.
Recommended Bet - Gaboriot each way @ 16/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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