Day 2 at the Randox Grand National Festival sees the local lasses pull out all the stops in the fashion stakes for the track’s official Ladies Day. With spectacular prizes on offer in the style awards, the competition is invariably hot in the stands at one of the most popular race days of the season.
Moving away from the realm of fancy frocks and fascinators, the action on the track offers more than enough excitement to keep the good times rolling on Merseyside. The spectacular Topham Chase over the Grand National fences takes centre stage, with chief support arriving in the shape of a quartet of Grade 1 contests.
Included in that top tier collection is the excellent Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Offering £100,000 in prize money and held over the 3m½f, this contest tends to attract a similar calibre of horse as the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, and boasts the name of the mighty Thistlecrack on the roll of honour.
Looking ahead to the 2025 edition, 15 runners remain in contention, and a decent case can be made for several of them. Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2014-2024 (no race in 2020) and pick out the key stats and trends to assist with our betting decision.
6-7 All the Way
The Sefton Novices’ Hurdle is open to runners aged four and older but none so young has ever landed the prize. Four five-year-olds have come home in front, but none since 2011. The nine-year-olds Morgan’s Harbour (1995) and Unsinkable Boxer (1998) sit at the top end of the all-time age range. In recent years, six- and seven-year-olds have dominated the event, with all ten winners in our sample falling into that bracket.
At five years of age, the five-year-old Moon Rocket is the most fancied runner to fall outside the preferred age range as our list of contenders decreases to 12.
Relatively Recent Run an Advantage
In common with several races at the Randox Grand National Festival, many runners arrive via the Cheltenham Festival and naturally fit into the 20-40 day break range. However, it is still notable that all bar one of the winners arrived following a break of 20-41 days.
Kicking our all runners who arrive following a break of less than 20 days or more than 41 days brings us down to six.
Placed Effort Last Time A Plus
In addition to having a relatively recent run under their belt, it helps if that run was a good one. Of the ten winners in our sample, 40% won on their previous racecourse appearance and 80% finished in the top 3 last time.
Argento Bot, King Of Answers, and Laganhill fall down at this stage as we quickly arrive at our final three: Familiar Dreams, Jacob’s Ladder, and Jupiter Des Mottes.
Stamina Considerations
Interestingly, only half of the winners in our sample had previously scored over 3m or further. However, 80% had at least hinted that staying trips may be their forte with a win over at least 2m4½f.
Interesting as this stat is, it doesn’t help the selection process, with all three remaining runners fitting the trend.
Rating of Winner
Having only previously lined up in Class 4 and Class 3 company, Ballyoptic (2016) and Ahoy Senor (2021) demonstrated that it isn’t impossible to handle this step up in class. However, most winners had experience in Graded company, with seven of ten having one or more previous outings in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 event.
Unfortunately, none of our final three runners hit this criteria, meaning we must work a little harder to zero in on our selection.
Fate of the Favourite
With only two winning favourites over the past ten ediitons, this has been a tricky puzzle for punters to solve. A £1 level stakes bet on the market leader over this period returned a loss of £4.25. Seven winners returned a single figure SP, with the biggest shock coming courtesy of Ahoy Senor, who defied odds of 66/1 to claim the 2021 edition.
Recommended Bets
With no runner hitting all five of our key trends, we must make our selection from those who come closest to doing so. Focussing our attention on those who meet four of the five key criteria expands our shortlist to the following five contenders:
Argento Boy, 17/2 with Betfred - Willie Mullins runner with a boom or bust record. Very much bust last time out in the Albert Bartlett and best efforts have come on soft ground.
Battle Born Lad, 9/2 with Betfred - Grade 2 winner over this trip at Haydock last time. Likely to make a bold bid from the front.
Jacob’s Ladder, 7/1 with Betway - Went off the boil following a promising start to the season but has bounced back with successive wins at Navan and Naas. Those efforts came over 2m4f but scored over 3m in his Point-to-Point.
Jupiter Des Mottes, 33/1 with Betway - Began well with a win at Newcastle but comfortably dismissed by the reopposing Crest Of Fortune last time. Work to do on that evidence.
Familiar Dreams, 13/2 with Betway - 4 from 9 in bumpers and 2 from 3 over hurdles this Gordon Elliott runner has an excellent win percentage. Two good for the mares in a Limerick Grade 3 last time and arrives on the up.
Of the above quintet, Battle Born Lad is our number one selection at a track suits front running performers. However, we were greatly impressed with the gutsy display of Familiar Dreams last time out. In receipt of the mares allowance, we are keen to keep the Elliott runner onside.
Recommended Bet - Battle Born Lad to win @ 9/2 with BetFred
Recommended Bet - Familiar Dreams each way @ 13/2 with Betway
Our Top Betting Sites for the 2025 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:
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Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
