Whether on the level or over jumps, you can rely on the Berkshire venue of Ascot to lay on a high-quality afternoon of racing entertainment. We are, of course, firmly into National Hunt territory as we reach the midpoint of February, and this Saturday, Ascot presents one of its flagship jumps cards of the season.
Encompassing three excellent handicaps, a Grade 2 Novice Chase event, a Novice Hurdle, and a Bumper, the headline act comes in the shape of the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. Held over the intermediate trip of 2m5f, many of the greats of the game have claimed this £175,000 event, including Kauto Star, dual-winner Cue Card, and the sadly ill-fated Shiskin.
The question is, who will add their name to the roll of honour in 2025? With the final field confirmed on Thursday afternoon, we now know that this year’s race will fall to one of six contenders. With minimal rain in the forecast, we will assume that the current good to soft conditions will remain in place for the purpose of our analysis.
1. Blue Lord – 20/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Willie Mullins
2m4f-2m5f Chase Form Figures: 18
Grade 1 Form Figures: 23F3131128346
Good to Soft Form Figures: 4313124
Ascot Form Figures: Unraced at Ascot
Successful three times in Grade 1 company, there is no doubting the talent of this ten-year-old at his peak. Therein lies the issue, as Blue Lord’s most recent top-level success came back in December 2022, when slamming Captain Guinness by 11l in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown.
He has only been seen three times at the track since April 2023 due to injury issues and has looked a shadow of his former self in two outings so far this term. He can be forgiven his comeback fourth at Cork, but it would have been nice to see just a little more last time out in the 2024 edition of the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, where he managed only a 33l sixth behind surprise winner Solness.
It is always unwise to ignore anything from the Mullins yard, but it requires a leap of faith to back this one at present.
2. Corbetts Cross – 5/2 with BetVictor
Trainer: Emmet Mullins
2m4f-2m5f Chase Form Figures: 31
Grade 1 Form Figures: RO236
Good to Soft Form Figures: 1
Ascot Form Figures: Unraced at Ascot
Long held in high regard by connections, this JP McManus-owned runner has yet to score at the top level. However, he looked every inch a future Grade 1 winner when cruising to a 17l success in the Grade 2 National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival.
That came over a marathon 3m6f trip, and he has failed to back it up in three outings over shorter since, including when only making late headway in the King George last time.
Under quick conditions, this 2m5f distance may be a little on the short side for a horse who looks a natural for a tilt at the Aintree Grand National in years to come.
3. Flegmatik – 100/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Dan Skelton
2m4f-2m5f Chase Form Figures: 541322P433
Grade 1 Form Figures: Unraced in Grade 1 company
Good to Soft Form Figures: 1139125
Ascot Form Figures: P43U238453
With the British Trainer’s Championship in his crosshairs, it is no surprise to see Dan Skelton represented in this contest. However, barring accidents, this ten-year-old looks to face a near-impossible task.
Flegmatik's current mark of 130 puts him 22lb and more below his five rivals as he tackles Grade 1 company for the first time on what will be his 37th career start.
Last sighted finishing a 15l third in a Class 3 handicap at Kempton, he’s zero from 10 at Ascot and would rate a hugely surprising winner.
4. L’Homme Presse – 2/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Venetia Williams
2m4f-2m5f Chase Form Figures: 1112
Grade 1 Form Figures: 113U243
Good to Soft Form Figures: 111312
Ascot Form Figures: 12
This classy operator posted his finest display when producing a stellar front-running performance to land the 2022 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Despite injury issues, he has since performed with credit in a pair of King Georges and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He also finished second to Pic D’orhy in the 2024 edition of this, when not helping his chance by jumping out to the left.
Having bounced back to winning ways when seeing off Stage Star in the Cotswold Chase last time, he has sound claims of going one better in 2025.
5. Le Patron – 11/1 with BetVictor
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
2m4f-2m5f Chase Form Figures: 14P10
Grade 1 Form Figures: 14P
Good to Soft Form Figures: 0110
Ascot Form Figures: Unraced at Ascot
Having ended 2023 with a bang in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown, Le Patron returned with a whimper in spring 2024 – two outings yielding a 36l defeat and a pulled-up effort in the Turners’ Novices Chase.
He then suggested he was back on track with a Class 2 handicap success at Newbury on his seasonal return, only to flop in the December Gold Cup.
With all five career wins coming in fields of 9 or less, he could be dangerous if allowed his own way in front but has become too unpredictable for our liking.
6. Pic D’orhy – 7/4 with BetVictor
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
2m4f-2m5f Chase Form Figures: 1F31P11121121P1
Grade 1 Form Figures: 20F3P211P
Good to Soft Form Figures: 0F1P221
Ascot Form Figures: 6F412111
A rating of 161 places the defending champion 2lb behind Corbetts Cross and L’Homme Presse. However, he does seem to enjoy himself around here.
4 from 8 at the track and 9 from 15 at this sort of distance, he made it look easy when scoring by 5½l in 2024. Whilst he was allowed to dictate the fractions last season, his overall record at the track is hard to fault.
Looking as well as ever when landing the 1965 Chase over course and distance on his seasonal return, he could be the one to beat.
The Verdict
Of the six runners, only Flegmatik looks short of the required standard. Le Patron would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but that appears unlikely with Pic D’Orhy and L’Homme Presse amongst the opposition, whilst Blue Lord needs to stage a revival to figure.
Overall, we suspect that the market has this right in favouring Pic D’orhy, L’Homme Presse, and Corbetts Cross. Of that trio, the narrowest of preference is for Pic D’Orhy.
The Paul Nicholls runner likely has this as his big target for the season and can see off L’Homme Presse, who had a hard race last time out at Cheltenham, and Corbett’s Cross who may prefer slower ground and could be using the race as stepping stone towards the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Recommended Bet: Pic D’Orhy to win @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
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