The big springtime jumping highlights of the Aintree Grand National and Punchestown Festivals may still lie ahead, but Saturday, 29th March, marks the opening day of the 2025 flat turf season. As ever, the big event of the day comes at Doncaster as the South Yorkshire venue stages the historic Lincoln Handicap.
First run over 150 years ago in 1853, the Lincoln Handicap precedes the Grand National in what is known as the Spring Double. Given the mammoth fields of both races, selecting the winners of the two events is no easy task for punters. You would imagine it would be an even tougher task for a jockey to win both events, but Dave Dick achieved that improbable feat in 1956.
Held over the straight mile, this hugely popular contest offers £150,000 in guaranteed prize money and invariably attracts a maximum field of 22 runners. No fewer than 89 hopefuls remain in contention just over a week before the race, but undeterred by those vast numbers, we will turn to the trends to identify the most likely contenders. Using the ten results of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020 due to the global pandemic), we have picked out the most prominent stats which may help discover the identity of the 2025 Lincoln winner.
Younger Legs Hold the Edge
The Lincoln Handicap is open to horses aged four and above. Migration scored at the age of seven in 2023, but overall, the younger legs held the edge in our ten-year sample. Half of the winners fell into the minimum age category, whilst 80% were aged either four or five.
Focussing on those within the preferred 4-5 age range immediately reduces our list of 89 to 59.
Proven at the Distance
Almost always run at a frenetic gallop, the Lincoln Handicap places a firm emphasis on the ability to see out the 1m trip. As such, it isn’t surprising to learn that 80% of the winners had previously won over 1m.
Focussing on the 1m winners amongst the remaining entries trims the field to 45. Still some work to do…
Proven in this Grade or Higher
Several Lincoln winners have gone on to ply their trade at the highest level – subsequent four-time Group 1 winner Addeybb being a good recent example. Unsurprisingly, no recent champs had previously scored in such lofty company, but eight of ten had at least recorded a win at Class 2 or Listed level.
Applying this trend takes a chunk out of the field and reduces the number of challengers to 16.
Favour Relatively Unexposed Contenders
2019 champ Auxerre was the only horse to land this on handicap debut in our sample. However, with seven of the ten winners having nine or fewer previous turf handicap starts, the evidence suggests we should favour the relatively unexposed contenders.
11 of the remaining 16 have nine or fewer handicap starts, edging us a little closer to our selection.
Tried at a Higher Level
Having noted that most winners had scored in Class 2 company or above, it is interesting to observe that 70% of winners had lined up in a higher grade earlier in their career.
Focussing on those runners to have lined up at Listed level or above brings our list down to six.
The Final Six
With the remaining trends either failing to reduce the runners or impossible to assess accurately before the draw and final weights, we will now take a closer look at our final six.
Cicero’s Gift, 20/1 with bet365 - Only 1lb higher than when claiming a Class 2 event over this trip at Sandown in July 2024. Off the boil since but makes his first start since a gelding opetation. Number 2 on the list, so will carry at least 9st11lb
Highbank, 20/1 with bet365 - Should be fit following three outings in Meydan this year. Without a win since 2023 and 7lb higher than for that success.
Dear My Friend, 50/1 with bet365 - 13lb below all-weather mark but hasn’t won on turf since 2022. Last of 14 on his most recent outing over course and distance
Flying Finn, 50/1 with bet365 - Course and distance winner in April 2024. That came in a Class 5 event off a mark of 72, but he’s only 2lb higher than when landing a Class 2 event over this trip in September. Eighth of 27 in the Irish Lincoln on 16th March but may strip fitter for the outing
Padishakh, 40/1 with bet365 - Another who should be fit following three runs in Meydan. Caught the eye in the most recent of those when running on late to go down by under five lengths. Twice placed at Listed level or above earlier in his career
Alzahir, 50/1 with bet365 - A winner over this trip in Doha, but his only British win came in a Leicester seller. Reasonably consistent since, but only 68 on the list, so unlikely to make the cut
Betting Selections: Gift to Go Well and Finn Flying Under Radar
In truth, none of our final six boasts copper-bottomed claims. However, with all six trading at 20/1 or bigger, that was perhaps to be expected. We like Padishakh, but with a rating of 90, he is unlikely to make the cut. He’s one to bear in mind for the consolation Spring Mile earlier on the Lincoln card, but we will focus on two higher up the list at this stage.
Cicero’s Gift ended last season under a cloud but has shown he can win off this sort of mark and wouldn’t be the first horse to improve following a gelding operation. Flying Finn posted only a moderate effort in the Irish Lincoln but boasts a course and distance success alongside a solid trends profile and is worth a small each-way play at huge odds.
Recommended Bet - Cicero’s Gift each way @ 20/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Flying Finn each way @ 50/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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