The Grade 1 events rightly take centre stage at the Cheltenham Festival. However, a series of quality handicaps provide a healthy dose of variety on each of the four days and often present the most intriguing betting heats.
Hot on the heels of the Pertemps Network Final on Day 3 of the meeting comes the £150,000 TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase. 2m4½f is the trip for this Premier Handicap affair, with 17 fences standing between the field and glory. First added to the Cheltenham Festival roster in 1951, the event invariably attracts a field of top handicapping talent from both sides of the Irish Sea.
The 2025 edition is shaping up to be as competitive as ever, with a maximum field of 24 likely to line up on the day. In an effort to narrow down that list and hopefully identify a solid betting opportunity, we look back at the key stats and trends to emerge from the past ten editions of this entertaining contest.
Going The Distance
Thanks to that famous hill and the frantic pace of most events, any race at the Cheltenham Festival tends to provide a thorough test at the distance. In the case of the TrustATrader Place, a proven ability to see out the 2m4½f distance is a definite positive. When looking at the past ten editions, all ten winners had previously scored over at least 2m4½f.
Applying this trend to the current field removes 13 runners, bringing us down to 24.
Not Over the Handicapping Hill
Overall, the past ten editions suggest that it can be tough for veterans of the handicapping scene to find themselves on a good enough mark to prevail. The race was landed by handicap debutante in back-to-back editions in 2017 and 2018, whilst no winner had more than 11 handicap chase starts to their name.
Seven of the remaining runners bit the dust at this stage, bringing us down to 17.
Long Absence Tough to Overcome
Overcoming a significant absence provides an additional layer of difficulty at the best of times. All the more so at the Cheltenham Festival. Looking back at the past ten editions, all ten winners had appeared within the last 12-77 days.
Focussing on the runners who fit this trend reduces the field slightly to 15.
Narrow Ratings Band Dominates
Looking at the official ratings of the winners reveals an interesting recent trend, with all ten winners rated between 140 and 149 on the day. Zeroing in on this window in 2025 reduces our list of contenders to six.
Tried Outside of Handicap Company
Next up, one of our go-to big field handicap trends, i.e. looking for those runners who have lined up at a higher level earlier in their careers. The TrustAtrader Plate delivers a positive result, with nine of the past ten winners having been tried at Grade 2 or Grade 1 level. Just one falls down at this stage as we reach our final half dozen.
Rising Mark a Plus
In many handicaps, including those previously examined at the Cheltenham Festival, runners who have fallen to a mark below their career peak appear to hold the edge. However, the reverse seems to be true in this event, with eight of the past ten winners scoring off a mark either equal to or above their previous career high. Applying this final filter brings us down to three.
The Final Three
Dee Capo, 25/1 with bet365 - No Cheltenham form. Makes handicap chase debut. Unsuited by heavy ground last time out at Naas but had previously scored over 2m5½f on good to yielding at Leopardstown.
Path d’Oroux, 22/1 with bet365 - Pulled up in 2023 County Hurdle, 3rd in the 2024 Grand Annual, landed a 2m novice event at this track in October. Posted a nice prep for this when second last time out at Fairyhouse but unraced beyond 2m2f since his Point-to-Point days.
Masaccio, 14/1 with bet365 - Third, conceding 11lb to the now 139-rated Jagwar at this track in January and 6lb better off with that rival here. Dual winner at around this trip.
Betting Selections: Dee Cap Fits and Masacchio Worth A Punt
We are always loathe to draw a line through anything from the Gavin Cromwell operation at this meeting. However, there must be a slight question about the trip for Path d'Oroux, considering he faded late in the Grand Annual last season.
We have no such concerns regarding the distance for Dee Capo and Masaccio, both of whom arrive in decent heart, fit the trends nicely, and are well worth a punt at double-figure odds.
Recommended Bet - Masaccio each way @ 14/1 with bet365
Recommended Bet - Dee Capo each way @ 25/1 with bet365
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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