(Image by: breederscup)
There are many leading international events during the flat racing year, from the Melbourne Cup Carnival Down Under to Dubai World Cup Night in the Middle East and the Japan Cup in the Land of the Rising Sun. All are excellent spectacles, but few nations do hype, razzmatazz, and over-the-top excitement quite like the U S of A.
That said, there is much to get excited about ahead of the Breeders’ Cup Meeting, which concludes with a barrage of Grade 1 contests on Saturday evening – no fewer than 9 in total.
Having taken in the afternoon’s jumping action, we will be booking the TV for the evening to savour this mouthwatering feast. As ever, the leading yards from Britain and Ireland join the party, with a talented cast of stars crossing the Atlantic to take their shot at glory. Here, we pick out our four best bets on the card, including in the Breeder’s Cup Classic as City Of Troy makes his bid for immortality.
7:41 pm - Prevagen Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint
There are a few familiar names for British and Irish racing fans in this contest over the fast and furious 5f trip.
The three-race winning streak of the Archie Watson-trained Bradsell ended in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time out, but that was mainly due to the very soft ground on the day. This quick surface should suit, but obtaining a handy position from a wide draw in 12 looks far from easy. Similar comments apply to Michael Appleby’s 2023 Juvenile Turf Sprint winner, Big Evs, who likes to go from the front but is out in stall 11.
George Boughey’s Believing has finished behind Bradsell twice already this season. She has a kinder draw in 1 but is rarely the quickest out of the stalls and may find herself swamped early.
Of the home contenders, Steve Asmussen’s four-timer seeking Cogburn has the potential to blow this field apart. However, he is priced accordingly, and a draw in stall 9 brings the potential for early trouble.
The one we like at an each-way price is the Richard Baltas-trained Ag Bullet. The drop to 5f is a question mark, but he’s a dual winner over 6½f and generally lives up to his name at the gates. With little early speed on his inside, he can grab the rail and at least make the frame.
Recommended Bet: Ag Bullet each way @ 14/1 with BetVictor
(Image by: gbougheyracing)
9:01 pm – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
If the European runners are to taste success on the night, history suggests it is most likely to come in this 1m4f contest. Responsible for eight of the past ten winners, Britain, Ireland, and France are strongly represented once again.
Sitting inside the turf course, we suspect a low draw may be advantageous on the turf track. Talismanic landed the most recent edition of this race to take place at Del Mar from stall 1. That theory may count against Charlie Appleby’s 2022 winner, Rebel’s Romance, who finds himself stuck out in stall 11.
Aidan O’Brien’s Luxembourg has a good chance to lead overall from stall 4 - that’s a dangerous scenario for the rest of this field, with the excellent Ryan Moore in the saddle. However, the evidence suggests he doesn’t possess top-level speed on a quick surface, and he may prove vulnerable to accelerating rivals in the closing stages.
The one to be on is the John & Thady Gosden-trained Emily Upjohn. Generally criticised as being below her best for much of their season, in hindsight, her form doesn’t look too bad at all. Going down by just ½l to Bluestocking in the Pretty Polly Stakes in June, she was third to the subsequent Arc winner on unsuitably soft ground in the Prix Vermeille. Her most recent start over this trip on a quick surface resulted in a comfortable win in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, with Classic winners Westover and Hurricane Lane in behind. Reunited with old friend Frankie Dettori, she can break well from 2 and pick them off in the straight.
Recommended Bet: Emily Upjohn to win @ 4/1 with bet365
9:41 pm Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic
Next up, the big one, as the magnificent City Of Troy faces the biggest test of his career. In common with many other UK and Irish racing fans, we would love to see the Derby, Coral-Eclipse, and Juddmonte International winner hand Aidan O’Brien a first success in this race. Whether he is a good betting proposition at around the 7/4f mark is another matter.
Undoubtedly a supremely talented performer, the fact remains that this will be his first outing on dirt. He may handle it (and there’s certainly hope on pedigree). Then again, he might not. We would need to be a little more confident than that at such a shore price and will look elsewhere.
Todd Pletcher’s Fierceness looks like the pick of the home team following wins in the Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers’s Stakes; he's rock solid to go well but makes only marginal appeal at 4/1.
Much of the discussion in the lead-up to the contest has centred around the race being a weak renewal. As such, the runner to leap out at the prices is the horse who finished second in the 2023 edition. Step forward, Derma Sotogake, who goes for Hidetaka Otonashi and Japan. City Of Troy aside, there isn’t much reliable early pace amongst those drawn low, which should allow the mount of Christophe-Patrice Lemaitre to grab a nice early position from stall 6. Quietly campaigned in 2024, a recent spin in his homeland should have teed him up nicely for this, and he may cause an upset in the first-time blinkers.
Recommended Bet: Derma Sotogake each way @ 25/1 with BetVictor
(Image by: clarehavenstables)
11:45 pm FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile
Our final selection comes in an event the market suggests will be dominated by the European contingent – the top four in the betting all hail from a European yard.
We would agree with that assessment and rate the Charlie Appleby-trained Notable Speech and Porta Fortuna from the yard of Donnacha O’Brien as the two to focus on.
2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner Notable Speech is 5lbs ahead of Porta Fortuna on ratings, goes well on a quick surface, and hails from a yard which has claimed the past three editions of this. However, we are a little concerned that his style of running may not suit this track. Generally coming with a late rattle having been held up, any traffic problems in the short straight may prove his undoing.
In contrast, Porta Fortuna likes to get on with things from the off, having raced prominently in her three Group 1 outings this season, including when impressing in a quick ground edition of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s 5lb behind Notable Speech on ratings but gets 4lb of that back via her fillies allowance, and her advantageous style of running can make up the rest.
Recommended Bet: Porta Fortuna to win @ 3/1 with BetVictor
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
 (1).webp)
