Saturday 12th November sees the second leg of the Autumn Double take place at the headquarters of the flat racing game as Newmarket hosts the historic Cesarewitch Handicap. First run back in 1839, the race takes its name from Tsesarevich Alexander, whose £300 donation to the Jockey Club (a significant sum all those years ago) earned him a race named in his honour, which lives on to this day.
Held two weeks after the Cambridgeshire Handicap and over twice the distance of that 1m1f event, the race offers £175,000 in total prize money and is a significant late-season target for the leading flat and National Hunt yards.
The sight of 30+ runners laying it all on the line over 2m2f presents a thrilling spectacle for viewers and a fiendish puzzle for punters to solve. Here, we look back at the 24 editions between 2000 and 2023 and present a selection of stats and trends which may help zero in on the most likely contenders.
Age of Winner
The Cesarewitch Handicap is open to all runners aged three and above and has been won by both the young and the old in recent years. Darley Sun belied his inexperience to come home in front at three years of age in 2009, whilst the eleven-year-old Caracciola became the oldest winner in the modern era when bagging the 2008 edition. Overall, 4-7 years of age appears to be the optimum range, with 19 of 24 winners (79.17%) of the winners in our sample falling into that bracket.
Weight Carried
In 2024, the minimum weight is 8st2lb, meaning the bottom three winners in our table would carry an extra couple of pounds if lining up this year. Any 110-rated horse will carry 9st12lb, with 1lb added for each rating point above 110. Results from the current century suggest it is tough to shoulder a big weight to victory in this marathon affair, with only three winners carrying more than 9stlb. 8st6lb-9st3lb may be the window to focus on, with 16 of 24 winners (66.67%) falling into this range.
Rating of Winner
The average standard of horse it takes to land the Cesarewitch has remained broadly consistent in the 21st century – rising only slightly from just above 90 to a nudge over 92. The average rating of the winner over the 24 editions is 91.67, with 17 of 24 winners (70.83%) rated between 83 and 94.
Top Trainers
Given the stamina-sapping nature of this event, the race is understandably targeted by the leading National Hunt yards - and with some success, with four of the top six trainers on our list most commonly associated with the jumping game.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Almost always features 16+ runners, the Cesarewitch offers each-way terms on at least the top four places, with many firms paying out on additional places on the day. Overall, 16 of the 24 winners (66.67%) arrived on the back of a top-four placing last time out, with a runners-up finish being the most common previous finishing position.
Previous Starts in a Flat Handicap
At first glance, there appears to be little pattern to this table. However, when we add a trendline, we see a definite shift towards those relatively unexposed in this sphere. Since 2014, eight of ten winners had fewer than ten starts in a flat handicap.
Fate of the Favourite
A tricky race on paper, and a tricky race in practice. In the 24 editions since 2000, only four favourites have come home in front, handing supporters of the market leader a loss of £1.50 to £1 level stakes. Overall, seven of 24 winners returned a single-figure SP; 11 were between 10/1 and 16/1, with the remainder returning odds of 25/1+, including one at 50/1 and two at 66/1.
Other Stats
- All 24 winners had previously won over 2m or further.
- 16 of 24 (66.67%) had won at Class 2 level or above.
- 22 of 24 (91.67%) arrived following a break of 21 days or more.
- 13 of 24 (54.17%) had previously competed at Listed level or above.
- 14 of 24 (58.33%) had previously run over hurdles.
Best Trend Fit in 2024
At the time of writing, 60 hopefuls remained in contention for the 2024 Cesarewitch. Happily, we can whittle that list down considerably by applying the four strongest trends, namely, runners arriving off a 21+-day break, aged between four and seven, previously won over 2m+, officially rated between 83 and 94, and finished in the top 4 last time out.
Applying those filters to the 60-runner list brings us down to just three:
- Trooper Bisdee: Sir Mark Prescott is no stranger to big handicap success but has yet to land this prize. Perhaps this son of Australia could be the one to get the job done. Boasting form figures of 1141104 over trips of 2m+, he bombed out when sent off favourite for the Northumberland Plate but bounced back with a solid fourth in the trial for this last time.
- Spirit Mixer: This Frankel gelding also hails from a yard eyeing a first Cesarewitch success, this time in the form of Classic winning trainer Andrew Balding. He’s only 3lb higher than when landing a 2m event at Chester last time and has performed well at up to 2m4½f, suggesting he should stay this far.
- Manxman: Another with a rock solid record over staying trips, this Simon & Ed Crisford runner boasts career form figures of 1131 at 2m+. A 4lb penalty for his latest win at Southwell takes him up to a career-high mark, and, as number 45 on the list, he needs a few to come out to make the final field.
Manxman is one to bear in mind on the day, but will need a degree of luck to get a run at this stage. As such, we will stick with Spirit Mixer, who arrives right at the top of his game, and Trooper Bisdee, who should relish the strong pace and big field nature of this contest.
Recommended Bet: Trooper Bisdee each way @ 25/1 with BetVictor.
Recommended Bet: Spirit Mixer each way @ 33/1 with bet365.
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
